nycsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Not the best trends at 12z we’re getting to the point where we need to see jumps not ticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: The "Big" snow idea is diminishing. I think 4-8 is a reasonable call for western L.I. on westward. The 12+ inch possibility seems to be waning more and more with every set of runs. A little disappointing considering the potential of this storm but this was always a thread the needle event so we take what we can I'm not sure I see the big numbers decreasing, it's held course if anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: The "Big" snow idea is diminishing. I think 4-8 is a reasonable call for western L.I. on westward. The 12+ inch possibility seems to be waning more and more with every set of runs. A little disappointing considering the potential of this storm but this was always a thread the needle event so we take what we can get. That may be true but 4-8 or 6-8 is still a good storm if that is the end result. You make it seem like it's going to be 1-3. I wouldn't too much trust in the GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs coming out Do you have a comparison of the next frame too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 20 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: 12 versus 6z looks the same to me not much if any difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, USCG RS said: It is very real. The issue it is showing is the lack of a clean phase. You want this to consolidate much more quickly. If the Northern vort phases in/consolidates and/or the trough tightens a bit, then this double barrel low either does not show up or quickly consolidates to the westernmost low. Yep. Need a faster/cleaner phase. close off little early an its perfect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I don't know what you guys think of Bernie Rayno, but his predictions have seemed pretty solid to me. He has a 16 minute pinned tweet on this storm, and I think he describes the situation pretty well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: It's a little better for sure, but still has a lot of work tho 100%. However -to me- the GFS is going to be stubborn here. So these baby steps on the GFS are pretty big to me. I keep drilling this, but the H5 is incredibly close to something special. It really is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 A Hecs / Mecs is off the table but a nice secs is still on. What's wrong with that ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jt17 said: NYC - queens. The heart of the forum. Where the gfs went from .6 to .8 inches of snow. It didn't cave. (Yet). I'm in the camp of the cmc/euro/nam anyway. I just don't get why anybody is pumping up this gfs run lol This is close to a total non event for everyone NW of NYC (Orange, Rockland, Bergen, Passaic counties). It’s 1-3 inches total at best there. If you want big totals, they will be in LI and eastern NE IMO 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: A Hecs / Mecs is off the table but a nice secs is still on. What's wrong with that ? After the frustration this month that would be a massive win. The +AO/PNA couplet is not favorable for us but much more favorable for Boston hence why they're getting the big amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: A Hecs / Mecs is off the table but a nice secs is still on. What's wrong with that ? MECS for NYC isn't off the table. And HECS/MECS depends on where you're talking about. For E Suffolk and up to Boston it's more likely than not. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 100%. However -to me- the GFS is going to be stubborn here. So these baby steps on the GFS are pretty big to me. I keep drilling this, but the H5 is incredibly close to something special. It really is. I agree, it's why I haven't given up on something major. Smallest of changes can have a huge impact on how this plays out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: A Hecs / Mecs is off the table but a nice secs is still on. What's wrong with that ? We're all chasing the white whale up until the time the snow starts falling. That's who we are. But once that happens, close the laptop, go outside and enjoy what falls. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: After the frustration this month that would be a massive win. The +AO/PNA couplet is not favorable for us but much more favorable for Boston hence why they're getting the big amounts. Agree It's hard for our area to get a major snowstorm without a negative NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: A Hecs / Mecs is off the table but a nice secs is still on. What's wrong with that ? Nothing but when the potential for more, a lot more, is so close people are going to naturally be disappointed with a lesser outcome. Anyway, this is entering banter territory so I'll put a lid on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: A Hecs / Mecs is off the table but a nice secs is still on. What's wrong with that ? I'll take it. Can't hit a home run every time to come up to the plate but a single still can get the run in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Forky, the white phone, paging Forky could you please pick up the white phone - Thank You 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Haven't had many METS weigh in today. Likely waiting for EURO. Would love to hear thier opinions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Haven't had many METS weigh in today. Likely waiting for EURO. Would love to hear thier opinions. There as confused as we all are lollol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 What happen to Walt Drag? Hes been MIA... i hope all is ok with him.. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The 20"+ amounts from a few days ago are off the table but this will still be a double digit snowfall for many with potential for a few surprises depending on where the best banding sets up. The 12z GFS was actually quite a bit better. If you look at the last four runs of the GFS at 500mb valid 18z Saturday, the position of the ULL is actually back to where it was on yesterdays 12z run. It ticked East at both 18z and 00z, then back West at 06z and now at 12z. The last three runs of the GFS have also trended towards the ULL closing off sooner. The Northern stream shortwave has also slowed down considerably the last few runs. If that Southern piece can get out ahead of the trough, it will dig more, amplify the trough and we will be in business. Not saying that will happen but that's what we need at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Gefs deft a west lean 12z 6z 00z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looks like the ukie went east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, wthrmn654 said: There as confused as we all are lollol You're not too far off tbh. Some of the experts have more of an idea of what they think is going to happen, however -after discussions- you are not too far off. Which makes sense for this particular storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12Z CMC a little east of 0Z but not that different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GGEM looks a lot like the RGEM, went east a bit. Warning level snow makes it about 30mi NW of the city. LI has 10-12" using 10-1 maps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: 12Z CMC a little east of 0Z but not that different. Correct roughly the same as 0z. A hair less snow but 12 plus still extremely close by in central LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Gefs deft a west lean 12z 6z 00z Nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 ENOUGH ****ING BICKERING JFC 9 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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