Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 reggie ticked east a bit no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: That's the problem. Canadian/UK on your side vs. Euro/GFS is not where you want to be this close to the event. Need some fairly significant changes by 12z with the major models (the GFS in particular) or else this is starting to look more significant than major for a lot of us. Gfs and euro are worlds apart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Snowlover11 said: reggie ticked east a bit no? Wasn't as good as last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: Wasn't as good as last run. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: Gfs and euro are worlds apart. Yeah but the Euro is trending away from the major storm idea outside of eastern sections. Neither have been trending well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looks like the rgem has the double barrel low too. Weird 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: . It looks VERY similar output wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Looks like the rgem has the double barrel low too. Weird I think/hope that's just noise - eventually when it's cleaned up closer to the event it should have a positive impact on how the storm eventually looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Jt17 said: I think/hope that's just noise - eventually when it's cleaned up closer to the event it should have a positive impact on how the storm eventually looks Unless the eastern low wins of course lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS I think has to give in a bit at 12z? Doesn't it? I'm not expecting a big storm anymore but pretty much every other model agrees now it won't be a total non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Steve D thinking 10-16 nyc out to li and s along the jersey shores 5-10 immediate N & W burbs 4-8 further inland 2-5 as far west as Allentown 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 43 minutes ago, MANDA said: Anyone hanging their hopes on Kuchera totals is in for disappointment. Except for perhaps western and northern edges of the snow shield. Yea I've seen so many posters saying why the winds will make this not super high ratio and the 12:1 ratios seem reasonable way to forecast this, maybe higher well inland if enough precip gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Models still showing a pretty sharp cutoff just NW of NYC but historically it's rare for a storm to drill NYC and significant snow not to make it to at least I287 as there is usually a band on the NW edge of the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS I think has to give in a bit at 12z? Doesn't it? I'm not expecting a big storm anymore but pretty much every other model agrees now it won't be a total non event. It might, might not. I'm not too concerned about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Models still showing a pretty sharp cutoff just NW of NYC but historically it's rare for a storm to drill NYC and significant snow not to make it to at least I287 as there is usually a band on the NW edge of the good stuff. 1/4/18 might be a decent analog for this-where the cutoff sets up, not the storm evolution. The "hope" line for me is I-287/87 to I-84 on east. NW of there I think is done for more than a few inches. I definitely do buy the sharp cutoff idea and we'll be riding where the western fronto band can make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Watch the GFS ride the coast... Id probably die...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, North and West said: Question for you: One of the few non-anecdotal stats I I know from reading the boards for 20+ years is that it's tough to get 10+" of snow in NYC and points south with a +AO and +NAO. There are obvious exceptions (March 1993) of course, but… Why would this be different? TIA. Solely wondering out of curiosity. . This is correct. I will try to post the data later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, NEG NAO said: who is steve d. ? Steve DiMartino. Hes been around a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, NEG NAO said: promise ? Promise... but Im taking you with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: who is steve d. ? Met who runs NY NJ PA weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Next run: GFS coastal bomb with two feet totals Euro: Iceland storm. Dusting to 1 inch here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 48 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: Exactly... i always go by 10:1 in these gigs. Anything more is butter.... People say this all the time and time after time we end up with 12, 15 even 20-1 ratios in different setups somewhat frequently. This will be more than 10, more like 12-15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: Watch the GFS ride the coast... Id probably die...lol It won't. It's way too stubborn. It should come a little west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 From a wind and coastal flooding perspective, this will be a fairly short duration event, but I prefer to hedge my bets on snow. These coastals offer more than just snow to observe. Should be nice to watch and post observations from the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 talking and guessing ratios are nearly impossible. so much needs to go right.. Dynamics, Snow rate, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 There all playing tag your it, whoever is it shows a wild outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Here's hoping this GFS run ingests bad initialization data, and is discarded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: talking and guessing ratios are nearly impossible. so much needs to go right.. Dynamics, Snow rate, etc It's about being stuck in a lucky band too. If you're in an area of crappy lift, expect crappy ratios. That's before the wind gets to breaking the flakes apart. Not to say it won't be above 10-1 in some places near the coast but the Kuchera 15-1 ratios or whatever won't happen. Maybe well inland where winds are less, but the good banding probably won't make it there to help with lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Not a great look through HR30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It won't. It's way too stubborn. It should come a little west though. It is funny how the longer we model watch the more we refer to them as living, breathing beings with their own personalities. Hopefully I won't live to see the day they actually are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now