January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Still stuck right on the western edge of the gradient 

Yep exactly why we want the early phase and cutting off the upper low. This setup is great for Boston and eastern Suffolk but NYC needs a little help to be in a good spot. The help definitely still has time to happen. 

[Franklin0529]

Really close to something much bigger. Sharpen that trough a little more. Bring that energy east quicker an it's a bomb 

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

12Z NAM, Kuchera, major storm for almost all on the forum. 

Anyone hanging their hopes on Kuchera totals is in for disappointment.  Except for perhaps western and northern edges of the snow shield.

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

It'd be real close even if it was just 3hrs earlier I think. 

Yeah.. That's I've been basically saying when asked.. 3-6 hrs is the whole ballgame. 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Anyone hanging their hopes on Kuchera totals is in for disappointment.

why ? ratios will be greater then 10:1 with this storm probably up to 15:1 at least

[Blizzardo]

Dont even bother posting kuchera maps... 

[jdj5211]

This is going to be a bit of a nowcast event like many of our big storms. Small shifts bring big differences. How many storms have we seen shift to monsters or nothing within 24 hours?!
I still feel this is going to be a tucked in crawling if not stalling low that brings a widespread 12-24 to the entire sub forum. These models are chasing the rising motion under the eastern intense vorticity and causing this “eastward” thought, when in reality it’s not the case.  In my opinion. GAME ON! 

[Northof78]

Just now, Blizzardo said:

Dont even bother posting kuchera maps... 

With the cold we have here on the backend of a CCB 12-13:1 should be realized

[BxEngine]

Just now, Northof78 said:

With the cold we have here on the backend of a CCB 12-13:1 should be realized

Ratios arent determined by surface temps. 

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, Northof78 said:

With the cold we have here on the backend of a CCB 12-13:1 should be realized

Yes, and I did amend my post immediately after I posted it.  Western and northern edge of snow shield could be closer to Kuchera totals.  15:1 ratios are not likely.

[Northof78]

Just now, BxEngine said:

Ratios arent determined by surface temps. 

Correct, it is cold at 850 as well with our relation to the storm position well to our S/E and with little overrunning lower ratios

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why ? ratios will be greater then 10:1 with this storm probably up to 15:1 at least

I agree

Ratios will be good

[hazwoper]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why ? ratios will be greater then 10:1 with this storm probably up to 15:1 at least

NO they will NOT!  Winds will be ripping.  No way anyone sees anything close to 15:1.  10 to maybe 12:1

[kat5hurricane]

The Nam is largely irrelevant at this stage. The GFS is still pretty far off for the real significant snows outside of eastern sections and the Euro has been trending a bit east the last few runs, need that to stop. Without those two on board, it's hard to imagine much more than a 4-8 inch type deal for the city on west.

[Blizzardo]

Just now, BxEngine said:

Ratios arent determined by surface temps. 

Exactly... i always go by 10:1 in these gigs. Anything more is butter....

[Brasiluvsnow]

let's see if any other models show this double barrel look,,,,,,,let me ask the question Has any other model shown this look previously to todays Nam run ?

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Dont even bother posting kuchera maps... 

yes boss...........

[nycsnow]

We’re legit miles away and hours away from 12++

[Roger Smith]

Liking most of what I'm seeing since 06z runs, holding on to the idea that models are just approximations of a larger paradigm which is rapid development over an anomalously warm Atlantic, the details may not be in focus yet, but any track similar to this 12z NAM track will obliterate much of New England and Long Island, banding of course will determine who gets 20" and who gets 30-40, but for NYC would remain optimistic that at least Queens-Brooklyn could get into heavy bands also thanks to LI Sound and 15" seems possible there, would expect maybe 10-12 at NYC and 5-8 at EWR but there's still time for this to take an even better track closer to the 50-55F thermocline out in the ocean, in which case a more equable outcome would occur, without reducing any of the higher forecast amounts.

Earlier I said 24-48 for CT and parts of LI, with very strong winds creating large drifts. Would maybe scale that back slightly but potential still exists for 20-40 inch totals and some gusts to near 70 mph across LI, it looks like the best forcing will be along an ORH-BDR-ISP axis which usually means 3-4 parallel death bands with the best one along that axis, two more to east and one or possibly two more to west. A secondary max from w CT to LGA-JFK possible, the lower amounts between bands will only be slight reductions but possibly up to 10-20 per cent. 

Hope the GFS eliminates the uncertainty and shifts west into this otherwise general consensus zone which may still prove to be a touch too far east when the storm gets a sniff of that warm Atlantic. My subjective track would be something like 50 miles west of 12z NAM and without the two-low solution, the leading low would be the triple point of a rapidly occluding bomb cyclone. Min pressure 958 mbs near ACK. 

[Jt17]

1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

Liking most of what I'm seeing since 06z runs, holding on to the idea that models are just approximations of a larger paradigm which is rapid development over an anomalously warm Atlantic, the details may not be in focus yet, but any track similar to this 12z NAM track will obliterate much of New England and Long Island, banding of course will determine who gets 20" and who gets 30-40, but for NYC would remain optimistic that at least Queens-Brooklyn could get into heavy bands also thanks to LI Sound and 15" seems possible there, would expect maybe 10-12 at NYC and 5-8 at EWR but there's still time for this to take an even better track closer to the 50-55F thermocline out in the ocean, in which case a more equable outcome would occur, without reducing any of the higher forecast amounts.

Earlier I said 24-48 for CT and parts of LI, with very strong winds creating large drifts. Would maybe scale that back slightly but potential still exists for 20-40 inch totals and some gusts to near 70 mph across LI, it looks like the best forcing will be along an ORH-BDR-ISP axis which usually means 3-4 parallel death bands with the best one along that axis, two more to east and one or possibly two more to west. A secondary max from w CT to LGA-JFK possible, the lower amounts between bands will only be slight reductions but possibly up to 10-20 per cent. 

Hope the GFS eliminates the uncertainty and shifts west into this otherwise general consensus zone which may still prove to be a touch too far east when the storm gets a sniff of that warm Atlantic. My subjective track would be something like 50 miles west of 12z NAM and without the two-low solution, the leading low would be the triple point of a rapidly occluding bomb cyclone. Min pressure 958 mbs near ACK. 

So more like NAM 6z 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Mount Holly

[MJO812]

Rgem is still nice 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem is still nice 

RGEM is a very good model, so it's big that we have it on our side. I'm feeling good about this event.

[MJO812]

Icon fwiw is also west

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem is still nice 

Hopefully we can get this to track inside the Benchmark then have the stall/capture just south of Cape Cod like the GGEM/UK had last night. That’s how NYC can get annihilated. And obviously the east shuffles from the Euro need to stop. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

RGEM is a very good model, so it's big that we have it on our side. I'm feeling good about this event.

This winter not really but it’s better to have it than not at this point. It’s also hopefully a precursor to a really good GGEM run. 

[Joe4alb]

[Sn0waddict]

RGEM closes off at hr 54 south of Long Island.

[North and West]

Rgem is still nice 

Question for you: One of the few non-anecdotal stats I I know from reading the boards for 20+ years is that it's tough to get 10+" of snow in NYC and points south with a +AO and +NAO.

There are obvious exceptions (March 1993) of course, but… Why would this be different?

TIA. Solely wondering out of curiosity.


.

[kat5hurricane]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully we can get this to track inside the Benchmark then have the stall/capture just south of Cape Cod like the GGEM/UK had last night. That’s how NYC can get annihilated. And obviously the east shuffles from the Euro need to stop. 

That's the problem. Canadian/UK on your side vs. Euro/GFS is not where you want to be this close to the event. Need some fairly significant changes by 12z with the major models (the GFS in particular) or else this is starting to look more significant than major for a lot of us.