weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, dseagull said: Thank god for that. Majority of the state has watches. Where would y'all be without us North Jerseyans spending all our dough there every summer:) ( Don't answer that ). Seriously, when the fishing was good back in the day, Barnegat Bay, while never the fish factory that Delaware and Raritan were, had some of the finest fishing anywhere in the country. And it was largely sheltered from the worst winds. Used to catch winter flounder near the nuclear plant.....bluefish, weakfish, blowfish, even porgies at one time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 A lot of chatter about QPF and not much about ratios, considering that it will be in the teens to maybe 25F (forecasted high in NYC for Saturday), we may be looking at enhanced accumulations based on ratios. Models always struggle with this element with what accumulates on the ground, either overestimating with marginal temperatures, or underestimating. Snow total maps are almost always erroneous in that regard. We're on the favorable side this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: That is the same with OEM. It’s time and money to be prepared, but you can’t get caught with your pants down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Shades said: A lot of chatter about QPF and not much about ratios, considering that it will be in the teens to maybe 20F (forecasted high in NYC for Saturday), we may be looking at enhanced accumulations based on ratios. Models always struggle with this element with what accumulates on the ground, either overestimating with marginal temperatures, or underestimating. Snow total maps are almost always erroneous in that regard. We're on the favorable side this time around. Temps dropping throughout the storm per nws too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Shades said: A lot of chatter about QPF and not much about ratios, considering that it will be in the teens to maybe 20F (forecasted high in NYC for Saturday), we may be looking at enhanced accumulations based on ratios. Models always struggle with this element with what accumulates on the ground, either overestimating with marginal temperatures, or underestimating. Snow total maps are almost always erroneous in that regard. We're on the favorable side this time around. Winds wipe out ratios.. so dont get hopes up for high ratios 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Where would y'all be without us North Jerseyans spending all our dough there every summer:) ( Don't answer that ). Seriously, when the fishing was good back in the day, Barnegat Bay, while never the fish factory that Delaware and Raritan were, had some of the finest fishing anywhere in the country. And it was largely sheltered from the worst winds. Used to catch winter flounder near the nuclear plant.....bluefish, weakfish, blowfish, even porgies at one time. It's my backyard to this day and run charters part-time 8 months of the year. I've come to enjoy our micro-climate. Let's see how this storm comes together. You guys are due for a good one up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, Shades said: A lot of chatter about QPF and not much about ratios, considering that it will be in the teens to maybe 25F (forecasted high in NYC for Saturday), we may be looking at enhanced accumulations based on ratios. Models always struggle with this element with what accumulates on the ground, either overestimating with marginal temperatures, or underestimating. Snow total maps are almost always erroneous in that regard. We're on the favorable side this time around. Ratios are determined by what happens in the cloud not surface temps. That part will help but if we see 50mph gusts, the flakes get broken up and ratios are close to 10-1 regardless. I’ve seen several systems where we had teens but tiny or sand flakes with lousy snow growth. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Even though temps moderate down by me we can still get very cold. The low at my house for this January is 6. And we tend to be in a prime spot for nor'easters of this nature. I'd still rather live north and will move north someday, but I definitely don't hate this location relative to big storm potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 In other news, nam may be improving at 12z. Still early though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: In other news, nam may be improving at 12z. Still early though. We should be getting NAMed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM looks great so far. initial disturbance is much improved 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Nam looks like it's ready to go boom. Let's see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 34 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Absolutely Could not agree more. Where and when will absolutely dictate who gets what. So close to something amazing. Not that 12" for some spots is not good but expectations were set very high early on with this and then with constant posting of the Kuchera maps that skews expectations. 12Z runs will be interesting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Sharper trough, higher heights off the coast. Come on. Do it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looks amped through 33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I know we all want YUGE snows but why are we so bent on discounting what the models are saying at this point? It seems they all point to a super tight gradient with the majority of big snows off to the east and yet we wont accept it. Believe me I want 20 + inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Liking the northern stream so far on the NAM. We'll see how this plays out for the rest of the run. Looks good so far. It does have that "go boom" look but exactly when and where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said: I know we all want YUGE snows but why are we so bent on discounting what the models are saying at this point? It seems they all point to a super tight gradient with the majority of big snows off to the east and yet we wont accept it. Believe me I want 20 + inches. Because the models are having significant issues with H5. The standard room for error at h5 encompasses some of these potential changes. One slightly different phase and your whole storm is different. Can't always just take models lock stock and barrel In theory... High resolution short range models should have your best shot here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Bit better with the phase this run. Heights slightly higher on the coast. Not too shabby so far. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: I know we all want YUGE snows but why are we so bent on discounting what the models are saying at this point? It seems they all point to a super tight gradient with the majority of big snows off to the east and yet we wont accept it. Believe me I want 20 + inches. I'm accepting it and have been accepting it for at least the last two days for my location. Will take significant changes to get my area in 12"+ snows and I'm not expecting it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: I know we all want YUGE snows but why are we so bent on discounting what the models are saying at this point? It seems they all point to a super tight gradient with the majority of big snows off to the east and yet we wont accept it. Believe me I want 20 + inches. Plenty of people are accepting that. I definitely am. It likely ends up the 50 mile range again between a very nice easy warning event and a small nuisance. Hopefully that’s west of the city so the most can enjoy it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This Nam might be better than 6z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: This Nam is going to be better than 6z Like amazing or better? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Trough orientation is better, more neutral-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Like amazing or better? Lol I'm at to 45 and h5 looks good but it needs to close off. If not then it will go east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM looks great at H5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: NAM looks great at H5 It needs to tighten** so it can sling shot. Is very close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looking pretty nice at hr48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 H5 trying to close off at hr51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Needs to close off a little sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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