weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Emotions are high due to the potential. If this was a garden variety 4 to 8 event would be different. That said yes, run to run over- reactions are a little high. A garden variety 4-8 is all some of us are hoping to get just west of the city, and that will be ok. Well, maybe not, but you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Nothings certain can be a major snowstorm or nothing. Stop talking in absolutes because some models trended better and some held serve and suck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: There's some good ones on the eps members. Some have the double barrel look. Some don't. I don't think anything is totally decided yet at all. All we need is a miracle All we neeeed is Forkyyyy Old song 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z NAM is in its wheel house time to take it a little more serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: no no no - no watches here in NJ - so no big deal Watches have been hoisted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: I'm under one for 6-12. only if you are now in Ocean County - not Union Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Now everyone definitely thinks a big snowstorm is on the way. I understand it's their job but maybe don't put out numbers just yet. Nothing is definite, even when it is underway, I have seen storms fizzle out. Rarely, and I mean like once or twice in my life, I have seen them exceed expectations locally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6z eps does appear to have a western lean, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: 12z NAM is in its wheel house time to take it a little more serious Nam wheelhouse is tomorrow. I have seen crazy shifts this close with the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Now everyone definitely thinks a big snowstorm is on the way. I understand it's their job but maybe don't put out numbers just yet. Well I believe it is still a Watch, so this leaves room for a bust I would think. But you've gotta let the public know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: only if you are now in Ocean County - not Union Ah, so Ocean County isn't NJ... darn need to change my mailing address. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: All we need is a miracle All we neeeed is Forkyyyy Old song We're definitely not at needing a miracle stage yet. Regardless of what some people might think they know. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: only if you are now in Ocean County - not Union The city is 6-12; we are only a hair west and that could be a huge difference, but probably not that dramatic. It's looking like we'll see something significant. Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, dseagull said: Ah, so Ocean County isn't NJ... darn need to change my mailing address. Monmouth is also under a watch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: only if you are now in Ocean County - not Union I'm in Monmouth an under a watch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: had to move my flight out of LGA to Sunday-too risky to go Saturday given the model spread-one time I left it be and got stuck for 15 hrs there That would be one bumpy flight if it does get in the air on time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Now everyone definitely thinks a big snowstorm is on the way. I understand it's their job but maybe don't put out numbers just yet. You have to, man. Seriously. Respectfully, you can't drop a bomb on people at the last minute in an area with millions and millions of people. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, weatherpruf said: It may as well be another state, culturally...... Thank god for that. Majority of the state has watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I think the big solutions are mostly off the table except SE New England. I'd take a wind whipped 4-8 and run Yeah I agree, the high end potential showed by the last model runs of the CMC RDPS NAM and UKMET are rather low at this point. I would say however that the floor of 0 is also diminishing, so there's that. I let my emotions get the best of me when historic and someone gets 30 were floated by really good/respectable METS and were backed up by some model runs. We know historic storms are not frequent for a reason. Now will sit back and enjoy the ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1st big hitter of the day warming up on deck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: only if you are now in Ocean County - not Union Sorry, live in Ocean work in Union. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said: That would be one bumpy flight if it does get in the air on time. I also figure I can change back tonight or tomorrow if this is a whiff. I like the whole no change fee thing makes travel alot easier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Volcanic Winter said: You have to, man. Seriously. Respectfully, you can't drop a bomb on people at the last minute in an area with millions and millions of people. No, you really can't. Not to mention.. Municipalities need to have time to prepare 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Nam rolling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yeah I agree, the high end potential showed by the last model runs of the CMC RDPS NAM and UKMET are rather low at this point. I would say however that the floor of 0 is also diminishing, so there's that. I let my emotions get the best of me when historic and someone gets 30 were floated by really good/respectable METS and were backed up by some model runs. We know historic storms are not frequent for a reason. Now will sit back and enjoy the ride! it's tough when we see the HECS potential and then it gets taken away. But really need to see that within 48 hrs to get truly on board. Model runs of 60-72 hrs are almost never the final solutions unless it's a cutter LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, EasternLI said: We're definitely not at needing a miracle stage yet. Regardless of what some people might think they know. Yeah just wanted an opportunity to throw out a funny. If that low captures at the right time a UKMET RDPS CMC NAM solution can happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Volcanic Winter said: Sorry, live in Ocean work in Union. Just now, USCG RS said: No, you really can't. Not to mention.. Municipalities need to have time to prepare Its a your dammed if you do and dammed if you don't situation. And that's where a lot of the bad vibes towards meteorologist comes from unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yeah just wanted an opportunity to throw out a funny. If that low captures at the right time a UKMET RDPS CMC NAM solution can happen. Yeah I know, it's all good. Just felt like a good opportunity to say that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, wthrmn654 said: Its a your dammed if you do and dammed if you don't situation. And that's where a lot of the bad vibes towards meteorologist comes from unfortunately. That is the same with OEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 FYI! Tidbits now has far more euro data to access including now precip stuff! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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