EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, EasternLI said: 06z EPS Starts out further east than the other models not named GFS. Seems that less tug west and just scoot NE. Could have been a big one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 36 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I think that’s the high bar, decent chance of not a flake and tons of Virga for NYC. Going to have super dry air funneling right down the Hudson Valley. Remember the last storm the Euro had a few inches where only a few flakes actually happened. Never bet against the GFS when its so locked in as it has been for days. Just remarkable consistency. Gfs hasn't been locked in for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 21 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: At this stage.. NYC and west could be 2" or 2'.... 0 to 2’ with a high probability of 0. That is the baseline at moment 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 06z EPS Between hours 54 and 60 you can see the capture and brief stall I guess. Looks like some major snowfall with many members for points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs hasn't been locked in for days Yes it has. I love your posts but you try to wish a storm every time.’ Can’t just dismiss the GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Emotions We went from having a high on the 0z runs to panic because the Euro shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, the_other_guy said: Yes it has. I love your posts but you try to wish a storm every time.’ Can’t just dismiss the GFS at this point. It just made a good step west on h5 on the gfs with some left leaners on the gefs. It's funny how the mood has changed when everyone said dismiss the gfs at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NWS didn't include the GFS in their thinking about snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Yes it has. I love your posts but you try to wish a storm every time.’ Can’t just dismiss the GFS at this point. Sometimes the outlier is the correct solution, it has had roughly the same output for 10 plus runs. Big 12z runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Again.. It's all about the phase. When and where they happen will dictate it all. H5 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Emotions We went from having a high on the 0z runs to panic because the Euro shifted east. Emotions are high due to the potential. If this was a garden variety 4 to 8 event would be different. That said yes, run to run over- reactions are a little high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Emotions are high due to the potential. If this was a garden variety 4 to 8 event would be different. That said yes, run to run over- reactions are a little high. I think the big solutions are mostly off the table except SE New England. I'd take a wind whipped 4-8 and run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Ignoring the GFS, and the variance of all other models over the last 24 hours to me suggests difficulty in the placing and evolution of the low. And that means chances still for more or less favorable outcomes. I think this one is going down to the wire. Could be wrong and a better consensus forms by this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Emotions We went from having a high on the 0z runs to panic because the Euro shifted east. Emotions definitely. A lot of folks got sucked in by the the euro days ago. This has been a thread the needle type event and you might not have model consensus until 12z Friday. Placement of 50-100 miles and a sharp precipitation cutoff is huge here for winners and losers. Still anyones game. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Its amazing how Upton can be so precise with their snowfall amount expectations and issue a Winter Storm Watch for Staten Island and no watch for their eastern Union County NJ zone this far in advance........... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Again.. It's all about the phase. When and where they happen will dictate it all. H5 Absolutely 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 My fiancee is about to cancel her hair trial on Saturday for our wedding because of the major snowstorm. I told her to hold it off and I will let you know more tomorrow morning lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I think the big solutions are mostly off the table except SE New England. I'd take a wind whipped 4-8 and run I would also take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: My fiancee is about to cancel her hair trial on Saturday for our wedding because of the major snowstorm. I told her to hold it off and I will let you know more tomorrow morning lol no worries here in NJ - no watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: My fiancee is about to cancel her hair trial on Saturday for our wedding because of the major snowstorm. I told her to hold it off and I will let you know more tomorrow morning lol had to move my flight out of LGA to Sunday-too risky to go Saturday given the model spread-one time I left it be and got stuck for 15 hrs there 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: And meanwhile every other models went west WNYC is reporting an expectation of 6-12 in the city for Sat, so they must be getting their info from the same sources; been hearing it all morning. Based on the evolution of these types of storms I would expect my area to be closer to the 4-8 range, maybe a little higher, if things come together. Still a ways to go but it does sound to me like there is an expectation of a snow storm. The term " heavy snow" was utilized. FWIW.....I'm not able to analyze these models the way you are and maybe this is considered vendor news, but that's what I'm hearing in the "non-sensational" type media...haven't listened to WCBS or 1010 yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: had to move my flight out of LGA to Sunday-too risky to go Saturday given the model spread-one time I left it be and got stuck for 15 hrs there Getting stuck at the airport is the worst 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I'll take 6-12" an run here on the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, weatherpruf said: WNYC is reporting an expectation of 6-12 in the city for Sat, so they must be getting their info from the same sources; been hearing it all morning. Based on the evolution of these types of storms I would expect my area to be closer to the 4-8 range, maybe a little higher, if things come together. Still a ways to go but it does sound to me like there is an expectation of a snow storm. The term " heavy snow" was utilized. FWIW.....I'm not able to analyze these models the way you are and maybe this is considered vendor news, but that's what I'm hearing in the "non-sensational" type media...haven't listened to WCBS or 1010 yet. no no no - no watches here in NJ - so no big deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: no worries here in NJ - no watches I'm under one for 6-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I think the model reality is that significant snow totals in NYC and points west are diminishing by the hour. Long Island however, certainly still has a shot at some very significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 17 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: 0 to 2’ with a high probability of 0. That is the baseline at moment You can't dismiss but the forecasts are out and they are expecting "heavy snow" for the city Friday into Sat. They could be very well be wrong, but they do this for a living, most of us don't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 We all know that the GFS sucks with coastal storms and has for years but it hasn't really budged big time. It did budge alittle on 6z. These 12z runs and especially the 0z runs tonight are going to be crucial. Looking at H5 early in the run will tell you how the rest of the run will go. More energy being held back , more east this will come. The less , the more west. You also have to see where the low forms down south and where or if it closes off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 There's some good ones on the eps members. Some have the double barrel look. Some don't. I don't think anything is totally decided yet at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: You can't dismiss but the forecasts are out and they are expecting "heavy snow" for the city Friday into Sat. They could be very well be wrong, but they do this for a living, most of us don't. Now everyone definitely thinks a big snowstorm is on the way. I understand it's their job but maybe don't put out numbers just yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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