Nibor Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6z GFS is basically a non event for most of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Given the delicate nature of this setup we may have to wait until tonight's runs to get a better idea of what will happen. Hopefully 12z is more positive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS still pulling east. pretty much on its own for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, Nibor said: 6z GFS is basically a non event for most of the subforum. Made some improvements at H5 and the surface low. More members west of the mean low compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 ..a little off topic in regard to the nor'easter..but KFOK is @ 0°..I'm @ 16°..amazing how KFOK is so close to me & such a wide spread in temps.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Here's what the 00z EPS looks like. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS has been locked in for days, bet against it at your own risk 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: GFS has been locked in for days, bet against it at your own risk Gfs on its own atm… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Huge 12z runs today, let’s bring it back in a big way 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, qg_omega said: GFS has been locked in for days, bet against it at your own risk LOL no it hasn’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: LOL no it hasn’t Agree it’s kinda on its own, and historically doesn’t the gfs usually struggle with EC snow storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: LOL no it hasn’t It’s literally been the most consistent model by far and it’s not even close. All the others moving 100s of miles every 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: I think 6-10 sounds reasonable for NYC and Western Long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: I think 6-10 sounds reasonable for NYC and Western Long Island. Def an opportunity to climb to but not a bad starting point at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: 6z Nam is much better than the 0z Nam Nice it has 20 inches here, but it's 78 hours out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Outstanding morning AFD from PHI NWS office this morning. It lays out the variables and how they affect the final outcome. Check it out. A good read. Good westward shifts overnight (but for the GFS) but main takeaway is that is that this event still heavily favors I95 south and east over NJ and LI with the heaviest totals. Having said that there are still going to be shifts and adjustment over the next 24 hours or so and the zone of heaviest totals is yet to be determined. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Not the whole run RDPS model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Def an opportunity to climb to but not a bad starting point at all Yes let's start with a baseline of winter storm warning and work upwards from there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Def an opportunity to climb to but not a bad starting point at all all that we need to double our snowfall total from 10 inches to 20 inches is a 20 mile shift (like from the previous NAM to the current one.) That is some razor thin margin of error right there lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, tim said: ..a little off topic in regard to the nor'easter..but KFOK is @ 0°..I'm @ 16°..amazing how KFOK is so close to me & such a wide spread in temps.. what are they measuring temps on, a slab of dry ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It’s literally been the most consistent model by far and it’s not even close. All the others moving 100s of miles every 6 hrs. .... and so that makes it right LOL... it literally has NO model support at this time. It’s on its own island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Every model run from now until snow starts is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This is why models struggle so much with East Coast storm tracks beyond 24-48 hrs. As as been said here by many, it results in the back and forth between runs and models. Small changes make a big difference. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, tim said: ..a little off topic in regard to the nor'easter..but KFOK is @ 0°..I'm @ 16°..amazing how KFOK is so close to me & such a wide spread in temps.. HTO (East Hampton) at 3 degrees, so not far off from the FOK 0 temp. Wow now FOK down to -1 (is this their first below zero this season?) HTO holding at 3 (edit- HTO now down to 2.) It just seems weird that the airport sensor seems to be right where the coldest temps on Long Island are-- what a coincidence lol. Are we sure there isn't some nearby place around there that might be even colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, bluewave said: This is why models struggle so much with East Coast storm tracks beyond 24-48 hrs. As as been said here by many, it results in the back and forth between runs and models. Small changes make a big difference. What causes the nudges? And why cant they be forecast better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, tim said: ..a little off topic in regard to the nor'easter..but KFOK is @ 0°..I'm @ 16°..amazing how KFOK is so close to me & such a wide spread in temps.. -1° now....I'm @+9°..wow!! Radiational cooling at its finest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: What causes the nudges? And why cant they be forecast better? Better data assimilation closer to storm time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 What does the 6z euro say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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