Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Still not a bad look. A little east of the cmc, nothing major It ends up nearly identical to its previous run during showtime - hours 54-69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It looks pretty good on the hi resolution maps, crushed Eastern L.I. and Southeast New England which gets annihilated. Wouldn't take much of a tick west to get a lot of us in the game for the bigger totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 We all know it will probably shift a wee bit tomorrow and hopefully that shift is west and closer to long island,,,,,good nite gents see u at 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It closes off after hr 66. We need that to happen maybe 6-8 hours earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Thought it was an overall disappointing run after the west trends tonight, especially for N and W. That's the 4th straight run it's reduced my qpf. Hoping things get fine tuned tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Checking the snow maps there's perhaps a 10-15 mile east shift for the outer extent of heavy snows. So held pat essentially. It looked more tucked earlier in the run, hopefully that trend continues and pans out a little further up track as a result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: This is insanity lol It's not. The models do not typically trend in one direction in "all together now" fashion and then it's over. They do go back and forth. This is how it is every major winter storm or most. One model run from one model two days before the storm is not a clincher or "cancels" the storm. There will be more changes on all of the models tomorrow. WX/PT 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: It's not. The models do not typically trend in one direction in "all together now" fashion and then it's over. They do go back and forth. This is how it is every major winter storm or most. One model run from one model two days before the storm is not a clincher or "cancels" the storm. There will be more changes on all of the models tomorrow. WX/PT Well said and very, very true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, mannylovessnow said: Compare it to 18z: can't get much more similar. It basically held steady. Could easily trend a little deeper and west tomorrow. Or not, but it wasn't east trend. Saying that gives the wrong idea to people reading the thread. (Not directed at you, just in general) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Well...EURO is no longer the western most solution. That's quite the change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Compare it to 18z: can't get much more similar. It basically held steady. Could easily trend a little deeper and west tomorrow. Or not, but it wasn't east trend. Saying that gives the wrong idea to people reading the thread. (Not directed at you, just in general) well the amounts are somewhat cut back for my specific part of SW Nassau I went from 10" to 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 meh. was hoping for atleast a wobble to the left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 f*ck this winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Not a chance. That was a relatively weak low that crawled because of enormous blocking. I see so that was similar to PD2 and Jan 2016....our biggest snows seem to come from storms like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 All hail King GFS 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 No one talking about the 6z NAM? It looks pretty good to me from the NCEP Model Analysis and Guidance maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, TriPol said: All hail King GFS Uh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Winter storm watch for NYC 6-12 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, TriPol said: All hail King GFS The 6z nam (which is out of range) just came in showing a bomb. What are you talking about? What is this in reference to? lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6z Nam is much better than the 0z Nam 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM is about 20 miles NW when so the heavier stuff goes a bit more inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 One thing that caught my attention was that the 06Z NAM had a closed-off H5 Low at Delaware's Latitude. That's probably why the snowfall pushed further inland this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Rgem at 48 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 we 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Yaz said: we Not the whole run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Gfs is slightly more west with the low but still goes northeast with it compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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