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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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31 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

These models are so so bad. Ukie gives a major snowstorm to NYC after giving them nothing at 12z. So bad. GFS is still lost in Newfoundland and 18z Nam was a total embarrassment. Good Lord. 

Actually, even though the 00z NAM came back west, if I remember correctly ... it called out about 10" on LI and even less in NYC proper. And the NAM usually overstates QPF. Not exactly in agreement with with the UK and the Euro. 

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1 minute ago, larrye said:

Actually, even though the 00z NAM came back west, if I remember correctly ... it called out about 10" on LI and even less in NYC proper. And the NAM usually overstates QPF. Not exactly in agreement with with the UK and the Euro. 

H5 on the 00z run was really good but the surface depiction after hour 60 was a joke. The GFS and Nam both suck. 

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8 minutes ago, larrye said:

Actually, even though the 00z NAM came back west, if I remember correctly ... it called out about 10" on LI and even less in NYC proper. And the NAM usually overstates QPF. Not exactly in agreement with with the UK and the Euro. 

The precipitation shield to the north west of the low on the 0Z NAM just doesn't look right... looks too small for such a strong low. It's not like there's a monster high to the north. 

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Is it safe to say if the 12z suite comes in matching tonights big improvements, its game on? Or is this system so mental it’ll continue to torture us until the first flake? Lol. Obviously the closer we get, the more likely it’ll happen. 

 

Cant help but think that recon mission flight and the pacific northwest energy that came ashore now being sampled on land had something to do with this sudden massive across the board consensus (less the GFS). Seems to always happen on most big storms that are complicated as this one. The timing seems as such that tonights 00z suite is the product of that ingested data earlier in the day? Anyone know if that is true? Good to know these things fort the next time. 

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1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Ok at 72 hours it is a tad bit east of where it was last run. But it's not by that much and certainly within the realm of possibility that this ticks back west towards the coast tomorrow.

WX/PT

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_4.png

It's already past us at this point. Before anybody freaks out. It's basically identical at hour 63 to the last run. 

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