wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I fing kid you not but the 00z cmc is exactly the same as 00z from this morning if not super close wth... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, jcwxguy said: This looks like the CMC run that initially got us all excited. Well damn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: The GFS is more than likely to not come around until the last minute. Likewise, this is not the GFS wheel house. If it is the GFS alone, you will have several very well respected models vs a global at short range. That's a good point. The GFS does tend to struggle with coastals but still, I'd really like to see it start trending in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I'm so confused, I can't say I've seen a model essentially duplicate a run 00z 1/26, to 00z 1/27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: No it's not? I'm confused. I said the GFS wants nothing to do with the threat and you said "No, it's not". Really odd since every other model trended west tonight but the GFS is a pretty major model that you wanted making favorable trends in order to increase confidence of a big hit and we haven't seen it yet. The Ukie coming way west is big though, could bode well for the Euro run. You said it was hard to jump on board when the GFS was so far east. I responded saying it's not hard to jump on board. Every other model came west and 18z Euro was a good run so GFS is on it's own. GFS is a lousy model tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The output is much better this run though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 0Z CMC looks like 24 plus hours of snow, inline with its mesoscale brother. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Ukie 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Ukie Wow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Final cmc totals close up view 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Wow Agreed 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Ukie From nothing to 12-18 for nyc on the ukie at 10-1 ratios? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Ukie Wow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Final cmc totals close up view That's at 10-1 too kuchera says the ratios should be super good and actually shift the heaviest axis of snow west. Even if it's not as intense as depicted 12-1/13-1 would still be reasonable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Ukie has snowier outputs than CMC which means the CMC is likely too low on amounts. Really curious to see what the Euro cooks up. Will it follow some of those intense western members? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Those snowfall totals are going to go up throughout the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 These models are so so bad. Ukie gives a major snowstorm to NYC after giving them nothing at 12z. So bad. GFS is still lost in Newfoundland and 18z Nam was a total embarrassment. Good Lord. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Ukie has snowier outputs than CMC which means the CMC is likely too low on amounts. Really curious to see what the Euro cooks up. Will it follow some of those intense western members? Snowier than 19.5 for nyc? (Yes this includes ratios) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 OMG coastal NJ to LI crushed on the UK. NYC in the western edge of the really heavy stuff. Big pivot and deform banding potential there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 That's the kind of shift on the UK that makes you take notice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 These are my fav maps still lol 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 ukie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The UK doesn't spit out those kinds of QPF totals in a snow column at our lat lon very often. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I've been tracking East Coast Winter Storms for quite a while, and what I've seen from the UKMET was quite an eye-opener. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: I've been tracking East Coast Winter Storms for quite a while, and what the UKMET did was quite an eye-opener. Uhm, yes. 2" liquid from the city east and 20+ inches at 10:1 ratio. Would be a NAM like annihilation. Perfect track for us and upper lows blowing their top right over us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So did the ukie come west? Asking for a friend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: I've been tracking East Coast Winter Storms for quite a while, and what I've seen from the UKMET was quite an eye-opener. That's only 12 hours of precip too by the looks of the map legend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: So did the ukie come west? Asking for a friend Just a tad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Would be fun to see Euro get back that 06z look from this morning (bet y'all don't even remember what that looks like now. Feels like weeks ago) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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