SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The UKMET appears to be fairly far west on that one site that comes out early but its hard to tell 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Ukie dookie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said: No way, that’s the challenge and the fun, yes stressful but fun. I do alot of work with the Red Cross regarding EM, etc. So.. nice to formally 'meet' you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Ukie dookie Yeah if you extrapolate it it does seem that it moved west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, T5403CG said: Glad to see Godzilla came back... When you lose Godzilla... It's game over... Sent from my moto g power (2021) using Tapatalk I just woke my wife up bursting out a cackle. Damn you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Going need a weekto rest after this models nightmare, my god! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 These runs all had the dropsonde data Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: These runs all had the dropsonde data Correct? They should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Yeah apparently the GFS is playing checkers with that data. (and hopefully not 4D chess) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah if you extrapolate it it does seem that it moved west Oh yeah for sure. Ukie is another model that tends to hold out till the end on coastals. Given the developments that the Euro/EPS indicated at 18z, I would be very surprised if they didn't show a CMC like solution at 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: These runs all had the dropsonde data Correct? Maybe they flew enough sorties and dropsondes that the jet stream changed into a look that would get us a nice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Volcanic Winter said: Yeah apparently the GFS is playing checkers with that data. More like solitaire 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Oh yeah for sure. Ukie is another model that tends to hold out till the end on coastals. Given the developments that the Euro/EPS indicated at 18z, I would be very surprised if they didn't show a CMC like solution. It used to have a consistent east bias with very strong coastal lows or lows sub 985 or so and tended to be very good with anything weaker but it had an upgrade in 2014 and it has been erratic since but still will tend to have a bit of a progressive bias with stronger systems 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Maybe they flew enough sorties and dropsondes that the jet stream changed into a look that would get us a nice storm. If the Ukie truly did come West, I think we have our answer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Maybe they flew enough sorties and dropsondes that the jet stream changed into a look that would get us a nice storm. They only dropped a few like 37 of them lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It's hard to get on board with this threat with the GFS wanting nothing to do with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, wthrmn654 said: They only dropped a few like 37 of them lol I didn't mean that literally lol. Great news about the GGEM and (hopefully) UKMET. If we get the GFS on its own and the other models trending to a bomb I'm pretty sure we can discount it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 hours ago, BlizzLuv said: I keep getting sucked into checking updates...hoping to see high amounts while not thinking about how it screw my weekend travel plans. Yes. We root for as many inches/feet as possible,....and then worry about the collateral damage later! GOGOGO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: It's hard to get on board with this threat with the GFS wanting nothing to do with it. No it isnt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Cmc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: It's hard to get on board with this threat with the GFS wanting nothing to do with it. No it's not. GFS is on it's own right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The 00Z GEFS looks like puke. Although, based on the latest shifts, I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS OP/GEFS made large adjustments by 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said: I wonder how much further west we could get this to go. Even small shifts cause huge changes in snow totals. I would give A LOT for a 75 mile west move. A LOT! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: It's hard to get on board with this threat with the GFS wanting nothing to do with it. The GFS is more than likely to not come around until the last minute. Likewise, this is not the GFS wheel house. If it is the GFS alone, you will have several very well respected models vs a global at short range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Cmc Looks great for NYC and even decent for those more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: It's hard to get on board with this threat with the GFS wanting nothing to do with it. It's an outlier right now. A big one at that. The GFS/GEFS has a progressive bias. It blew chunks on the cutter especially the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: It's an outlier right now. A big one at that. The GFS/GEFS has a progressive bias. It blew chunks on the cutter especially the GEFS. Could the GFS still be right? Yes. But odds definitely got better tonight for a good snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 @MJO812 post the ukie off of sv 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: No it's not. GFS is on it's own right now. No it's not? I'm confused. I said the GFS wants nothing to do with the threat and you said "No, it's not". Really odd since every other model trended west tonight but the GFS is a pretty major model that you wanted making favorable trends in order to increase confidence of a big hit and we haven't seen it yet. The Ukie coming way west is big though, could bode well for the Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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