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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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We have to proceed with extreme caution until the GFS gets on board. It remains a huge caution flag. The background tug will want to pull this east, so that is the default here.

I guess we should consider ourselves lucky that the NAM, RGEM, ICON, and JMA threw us a bone this cycle. I'm very wary that this might have been a brief head fake west.

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Just now, Jt17 said:

Bad run - if CMC looks like rgem, the Goofus will be on its own. 

Given how perilous the setup is, the progressive bias of the GFS will lead to incredible run to run changes. 

It's really incredible how slight changes affect the entire outcome. The model volatility must be off the charts this close to the potential storm. 

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Folks I think the GFS is back to being the Goofus with this storm.  The short range models will Lead the way to a consensus.  I expect a decent run from the euro tonight and possibly the Canadian but they won’t all be 100% all in yet.  Tomorrow you will see The short range models start to hone in on a big hit starting tomorrow morning and throughout the day.  I don’t expect the goofus to be on board until probably lunchtime tomorrow.  

Tomorrow night we can expect The headlines to read grocery store shelves already bare are completely wiped out due to major snowstorm.

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