EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: The rgem looks to follow Yeah, leaving less energy behind. Northern stream looks a bit more agressive. Looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said: I wonder how much further west we could get this to go. Even small shifts cause huge changes in snow totals. Exactly what I just said. I am extremely doubtful of any forecasts for this because of minute changes resulting in a huge difference....this could be a true nowcast event. What is the average model error day of the event? 10 miles? That might be enough to cause a big difference in the final result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Well that's def a hit 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I believe the crawling monster is very possible, if not likely (not sure about that low a mb but), however, those on Long Island should also prepare for what comes along with that. similarities to the great Jan 1996? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: I wonder how much further west we could get this to go. Even small shifts cause huge changes in snow totals. West enough to where NYC gets a major hit. Relatively small changes needed to get it there. And it can happen in a pretty short timeframe. The 1/4/18 storm that first coined the "bomb cyclone" popular term was supposed to fringe NYC at best and clobber E LI and Boston until 36hrs out or even less. Central Park ended with 10" I believe and I ended up with 14-15" 25 miles east of NYC because of a relatively minor shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Waiting for “mixing along the coast” 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Well I guess 37 dropsondes did the trick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Rgem looking great also 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: West enough to where NYC gets a major hit. Relatively small changes needed to get it there. And it can happen in a pretty short timeframe. The 1/4/18 storm that first coined the "bomb cyclone" popular term was supposed to fringe NYC at best and clobber E LI and Boston until 36hrs out or even less. Central Park ended with 10" I believe and I ended up with 14-15" 25 miles east of NYC because of a relatively minor shift. yes a true nowcast event....we remember all the busts but there have been a few positive surprises too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Rmine1 said: Waiting for “mixing along the coast” This may be the usual adjustment followed by the slide back east, if we adjust for 2-3 more model cycles though we would be in decent position for a solid event even with a late tick back to the east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 RGEM much much improved. Has a warning criteria event out to around I-287/87/I-84. Probably around a foot for the city on east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: similarities to the great Jan 1996? Out of my depth with that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, eduggs said: People jump the gun and get overexcited. But in fairness H5 was worthy of excitement considering previous runs even though the surface didn't work out very well. Oh I agree, big improvements there which is all we can really ask for even if it's just the Nam. I was mostly just poking fun at all the BOOM comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Fairly long duration as modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: RGEM much much improved. Has a warning criteria event out to around I-287/87/I-84. Probably around a foot for the city on east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 For comparison, 00z looks similar to where 12z has the L down south in early stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: similarities to the great Jan 1996? Not a chance. That was a relatively weak low that crawled because of enormous blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Icon shows snow still at 03z Sunday wow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 King euro is back 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Wow, what a reversal of what happened this afternoon. We really need the GFS to take some more sizeable shifts west to give this some validity and the Ukie needs to get its ass away from Bermuda. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Ok GFS........it's your turn!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Fairly long duration as modeled. Doesn't really show the capture scenario so actually it could be longer if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Doesn't really show the capture scenario so actually it could be longer if that happens. Good point and all without significant blocking. I love a long duration snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I mean look at this. Big improvement! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Hell yeah so far with 0z! We live for another day... or at least another model cycle. The RGEM, NAM, and ICON confirm the threat is still legit. A convincing shift west from the GFS would confirm that we're still in the game for significant snow. But will we bounce back east at 6z like a wobbling hurricane eye? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 These are some major shifts over 1 run. I'd be surprised if the GFS isn't better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now