jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: but what is it that causes the energy to hang back in the SW in such a progressive pattern? In a progressive pattern shouldn't everything be moving? It kind of just gets left behind between the diving in northern stream and steep PNA ridge it looks like, like a cut off eddy in a stream. But hopefully it ends up participating more and adding to the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Western ridge is a bit more robust than 12z and 18z too at hr51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 fuse lit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobjohnsonforthehall Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Six hours ago this model had our storm taking a selfie at the Eiffel Tower. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Snow spreading into the metro area at hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, BlizzLuv said: I keep getting sucked into checking updates...hoping to see high amounts while not thinking about how it screw my weekend travel plans. it's all a ploy for ratings lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: That’s absolutely embarrassing however this turns out. So glad the Nam is getting discontinued soon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Buckle in. This is about to get wild on the NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: Whats that, a good 400 miles difference? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: Lol That's the money shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, keno19 said: look at the kink in the isobars!! H5 greatly improved but the surface is a bit funky. It occludes down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Shes tucked an ready to explode!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Its still pretty weak for most of nj away from the coast ..2-3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 5:04 PM, Juliancolton said: You guys oversold that one a little bit 3 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That’s absolutely embarrassing however this turns out. So glad the Nam is getting discontinued soon. Must be a NAM run from an alternate universe lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM digs a little too far south/closes off too far south and it kind of escapes east and occludes. Again since it’s the Nam I really couldn’t care less. Just hysterical. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM/WRF 40Km FORECAST FOR: NYC LAT= 40.77 LON= -73.98 ELE= 89 7P JAN26 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 7P 26-JAN -4.7 -18.1 1031 47 3 539 515 THU 1A 27-JAN -7.0 -14.8 1031 64 4 0.00 546 522 THU 7A 27-JAN -8.4 -12.7 1032 82 6 0.00 549 525 THU 1P 27-JAN -2.2 -10.9 1029 59 8 0.00 549 527 THU 7P 27-JAN -2.4 -6.7 1026 63 38 0.00 547 527 FRI 1A 28-JAN -2.1 -6.0 1023 72 92 0.00 546 528 FRI 7A 28-JAN -2.3 -7.1 1021 88 91 0.01 544 527 FRI 1P 28-JAN 1.1 -8.1 1021 66 66 0.00 542 526 FRI 7P 28-JAN 0.1 -9.7 1020 67 83 0.00 541 525 SAT 1A 29-JAN -4.9 -10.2 1019 74 82 0.00 539 525 SAT 7A 29-JAN -9.1 -11.3 1016 87 87 0.10 537 526 SAT 1P 29-JAN -10.4 -9.1 1008 84 87 0.14 532 526 SAT 7P 29-JAN -8.1 -10.6 1004 49 90 0.06 527 524 SUN 1A 30-JAN SUN 7A 30-JAN Exclusive Benefits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: NAM digs a little too far south/closes off too far south and it kind of escapes east and occludes. Again since it’s the Nam I really couldn’t care less. Just hysterical. so this is option number 4? I thought closing off south was supposed to be a good thing lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: NAM digs a little too far south/closes off too far south and it kind of escapes east and occludes. Again since it’s the Nam I really couldn’t care less. Just hysterical. another run another solution....verbatim crappy for most of our area with north winds bringing in dry air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, mannylovessnow said: lol different way to get there, but the ultimate solution is the same. At this point I think it's safe to forecast 3-6 for the city and 6-12 for Long Island going west to east....a variety of ways to get there. 1-3 NW of Newark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Brian5671 said: another run another solution....verbatim crappy for most of our area with north winds bringing in dry air but the final outcome is very similar, so now we have a variety of ways to get the same outcome 1-3 NW, 3-6 NYC, 6-12 Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM good up to 48-60hrs after that toss out, professionally speaking. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Great run on the 0z NAM. It's not quite what we want - still needs work - but it was the kind of run we needed to stay in the game. There's a good chance the 700mb low shifts north on future runs if that basic upper level evolution holds. That could end up looking very Euro-like. If everything else at 0z stays the same or shifts further east, this was probably a blip run and we're probably toast. It would be huge to see meaningful shifts west from the rest of 0z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 All that buildup with the "we're about to get Nam'd" etc. then....thud. Not like it matters anyway because...Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 To be fair that was a pretty nice run 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Precip field would be further west with a low in that spot that strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: another run another solution....verbatim crappy for most of our area with north winds bringing in dry air H5 was great 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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