Brasiluvsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Wtf No idea!!! This is out of control More whiskey Nibor,,,,,,,,"line em up brother drinks for everyone",,,,,,on me 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: I can but I don't want to mention it Get the NAM to agree again and it's a perfect match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Prob for 6, 12 and 18" have all expanded slightly N and W, not a lot but there was expansion. Have not seen individual members yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: It's the euros ensembles like the gfs has the gefs Ok so since its the Euros we should take with a grain of salt, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: I can but I don't want to mention it Good. Don't. Still need to see other stuff come around. But this is so weird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Members are west on the eps Way more tucked big bombs than 12z Insane first off welcome back Ant,,,,,,,,,,now can someone explain this ? Is this what is known as Devine intervention or is there some other power at work here ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Get the NAM to agree again and it's a perfect match. I'll take a wild guess and say the 00Z NAM is west of 18z but considering it was in Portugal at 18Z that is not a tough guess to get right. 4 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Ok so since its the Euros we should take with a grain of salt, no? No the Euro output cannot be discounted at this time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The EURO 500 MB mean is just a hair away from something spectacular even for the west of I95er's. Hope we can get some backup from GFS and CMC over the next several hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I can but I don't want to mention it 3 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Ok so since its the Euros we should take with a grain of salt, no? Not necessarily every storms different, and every model will behave differently. So if 1 model does really good this storm and maybe several others in a row, you tend to trust that more, that and consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaysoner Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I'm a lurker here and not as well versed in meteorology as most of you, but it's still striking, the mental acrobatics I see from some people in order to convince themselves of a far rosier nor'easter scenario than what's likely. General weather pattern, Teleconnections, statistics and history, previous and recent model performance especially in the context of other models' output, are ignored and some people end up with their hopes dashed. For instance, last night I saw someone here post a detailed wishcast Which called for 24-36" for NYC/NENJ AND 24-48" LI. I understand the urge to fantasize but it's good temper your expectations. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: Not necessarily every storms different, and every model will behave differently. So if 1 model does really good this storm and maybe several others in a row, you tend to trust that more, that and consistency. The area doesn’t need a huge change to get a decent snow event unlike this last storm where we were largely out of it by this point. New York City with this event at this range is about where Raleigh or Salisbury was with the last storm. They were shown to get a big event 5-6 out then they were west or fringed. Ultimately they never got the shift they needed but they were in it til 48 hours out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18Z individual members for NYC. Good amount of "big ones" in there. There is upside potential if the 500 can close off a little further to the south and southwest. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, jaysoner said: I'm a lurker here and not as well versed in meteorology as most of you, but it's still striking, the mental acrobatics I see from some people doing in order to convince themselves of a far rosier nor'easter scenario than what's likely. General weather pattern, Teleconnections, statistics and history, previous and recent model performance especially in the context of other models' output, are ignored and some people end up with their hopes dashed. For instance, last night I saw someone here post a detailed wishcast Which called for 24-36" for NYC/NENJ AND 24-48" LI. I understand the urge to fantasize but it's good temper your expectations. You clearly haven't lurked long enough if you don't know Roger Smith by now. Good guy but he doesn't know the word "conservative". 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Put another way for the NYC individual members there is also about a 38% chance of 3" or less. Just pointing that out so I don't give the impression I'm over hyping anything. There are a number of low / very low members in there as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, jaysoner said: I'm a lurker here and not as well versed in meteorology as most of you, but it's still striking, the mental acrobatics I see from some people doing in order to convince themselves of a far rosier nor'easter scenario than what's likely. General weather pattern, Teleconnections, statistics and history, previous and recent model performance especially in the context of other models' output, are ignored and some people end up with their hopes dashed. For instance, last night I saw someone here post a detailed wishcast Which called for 24-36" for NYC/NENJ AND 24-48" LI. I understand the urge to fantasize but it's good temper your expectations. Have some fun. This should be fun and miserable at the same time producing its own sort of masochistic pleasure. This place is like 50 Shades of Weather, and I'm here for it. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, jaysoner said: I'm a lurker here and not as well versed in meteorology as most of you, but it's still striking, the mental acrobatics I see from some people doing in order to convince themselves of a far rosier nor'easter scenario than what's likely. General weather pattern, Teleconnections, statistics and history, previous and recent model performance especially in the context of other models' output, are ignored and some people end up with their hopes dashed. For instance, last night I saw someone here post a detailed wishcast Which called for 24-36" for NYC/NENJ AND 24-48" LI. I understand the urge to fantasize but it's good temper your expectations. Its how we weenies act when we see qpf bombs on maps in middle of winter... welcome and get use to it... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 SREFS no help. And they have been typically over amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 n/s energy looks stronger on 00z nam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: SREFS no help. And they have been typically over amped. If you can go see the two groups (arw and nmb). I don’t know if I can post it here but one has no storm for anyone. Another is like the euro and shifted west like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, tristateweatherFB said: If you can go see the two groups (arw and nmb). I don’t know if I can post it here but one has no storm for anyone. Another is like the euro and shifted west like the euro Help me out what is the nmb ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Probably not because winds will be really strong. Especially nearer the coast What you said about the Kuchera 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: The Kuchera ratios aren't happening except for maybe well inland. That's showing maybe 15-1 ratios for the coast. MAYBE we can do 12-1 here. The winds are going to break the dendrites apart. That said the Euro run was very encouraging that at least this isn't dead. And the other models really aren't far off from something a lot better. We just need the upper lows to close off 6 hrs or so sooner. And we need some kind of help from the southern stream. Upton is loltastic with the snow ranges from nothing to 21" for me. But I guess that really is the 10 and 90% threshold at this point. Yeah, I should have posted the 10:1 maps also and then said to average. A bit distracted earlier though. 1 hour ago, tek1972 said: Mostly agree. Thursday would have been fine. Also, I'm actually rooting for no snow Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Welcome to emergency management issues (was actually trying to reply to what you said @Volcanic Winter) 47 minutes ago, Rjay said: Jfc. A bunch of tucked in bombs. Wtf is going on. I told you - it's coming 23 minutes ago, MANDA said: The EURO 500 MB mean is just a hair away from something spectacular even for the west of I95er's. Hope we can get some backup from GFS and CMC over the next several hours. Exactly. Someone else understands me! 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The area doesn’t need a huge change to get a decent snow event unlike this last storm where we were largely out of it by this point. New York City with this event at this range is about where Raleigh or Salisbury was with the last storm. They were shown to get a big event 5-6 out then they were west or fringed. Ultimately they never got the shift they needed but they were in it til 48 hours out Not at all. H5 is a hairs breath away from something truly spectacular. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Help me out what is the nmb ? One group of Sref members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: What you said about the Kuchera Yeah, I should have posted the 10:1 maps also and then said to average. A bit distracted earlier though. Welcome to emergency management issues (was actually trying to reply to what you said @Volcanic Winter) I told you - it's coming Exactly. Someone else understands me! Not at all. H5 is a hairs breath away from something truly spectacular. If the Euro fails this bad this close in it should just be tossed from there on. It’s bent a little to the other models but has shown at least a warning event for NYC for 6-7 runs straight. And the ensembles coming west again shows it really must be seeing something to give it a chance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 About that Nam though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: If the Euro fails this bad this close in it should just be tossed from there on. It’s bent a little to the other models but has shown at least a warning event for NYC for 6-7 runs straight. And the ensembles coming west again shows it really must be seeing something to give it a chance. Honestly, I'm really about all in on this. The H5 is so close to something spectacular on just about every model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Honestly, I'm really about all in on this. The H5 is so close to something spectacular on just about every model. I can see how it gets there for sure but I’m hesitant due to all the disagreement. The Euro’s been nothing special this winter so far but it’s been better than the GFS. It’s still a fragile setup that can go to crap as we’re seeing on other guidance. But I really hope you’re right because the potential is through the roof (maybe up to the roof) if it does come together. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I have to say Nam look a bit better so far. Then again it look terrible at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 00Z NAM is running. So far looks like less energy is being held back in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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