hudsonvalley21 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Hey u never know. The NAM has been know to shifts hundreds of miles in all directions on each run. Many moving parts,many outcomes. Maybe by 12z Thursday or 00z Friday when all the parts have been on the playing field. It’s Still a coin toss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Don't post often, but I don't mind where the euro is. Except for sharp cutoff storms, we usually see the heavy bands expand further west and northwest than modeled ..but we shall see. .. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 You also can't have people preparing for this literally Friday. IMO we shouldn't project our disappointment on the fact that they started telling people about the storm's potential. Very tough situation with the models split like that, unless their meteorologists were prepared to toss the Euro completely and commit to the GFS no way you can't bypass giving the millions of people that live here ample notice given the potential for a very, very potent storm. I work in an area related to this, if they waited much longer and this pans out, it would be absolutely nightmarish on Friday.Mostly agree. Thursday would have been fine.Also, I'm actually rooting for no snow Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The NAM is absolutely schizophrenic as we've seen now so I'd give it little/zero weight at this point. Still waiting on the GFS/GGEM to REALLY hopefully come west to give the Euro support. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I do think the well NW areas need a lot of help here and are on life support with this one but it hasn't been a surprise given the trends over the last day or so. I'd put the "there's still a decent shot" line at I-287/87 and then along I-84 east of there. By decent I mean a warning level event. There could still be 2-4" or something like that well NW. Exactly. Im near 84 and NWS Albany has my most probable snow accums at 4.4 FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Eps also came west 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 We're prob about to get nam'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 23 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The fact it's on its own. Yes it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Is the 18Z Euro as reliable as other Euro cycles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jt17 said: We're prob about to get nam'd The NAM is all over the place so even if we did get nam'd I wouldn't take it that seriously but it would probably give this forum a lift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Local news starting to hedge themselves, “hit or miss” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The Kuchera ratios aren't happening except for maybe well inland. That's showing maybe 15-1 ratios for the coast. MAYBE we can do 12-1 here. The winds are going to break the dendrites apart. That said the Euro run was very encouraging that at least this isn't dead. And the other models really aren't far off from something a lot better. We just need the upper lows to close off 6 hrs or so sooner. And we need some kind of help from the southern stream. Upton is loltastic with the snow ranges from nothing to 21" for me. But I guess that really is the 10 and 90% threshold at this point. The wild card in all this is what will come from the data collected on the recon flight today and the 3 additional flights tomorrow. The data from today’s flight is expected to reflect in the 0z model suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: The NAM is all over the place so even if we did get nam'd I wouldn't take it that seriously but it would probably give this forum a lift. That's what getting nam'd is lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, EasternLI said: Jfc. A bunch of tucked in bombs. Wtf is going on. 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Jfc. A bunch of tucked in bombs. Wtf is going on. Wtf No idea!!! This is out of control More whiskey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 EPS is way amped. unreal 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Jfc. A bunch of tucked in bombs. Wtf is going on. That looks... way better - that is maybe more than a tick back west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I can't remember any situation like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, EasternLI said: I can't remember any situation like this. There's like an inch liquid back to the city on the eps lol 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Jfc. A bunch of tucked in bombs. Wtf is going on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Is there a control run on the euro 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just looking at probabilities and at quick glance they have blossomed a bit NW. Here are 18Z MEAN and CONTROL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Ok, please explain what the EPS is and why it is any more credible, or less so, than anything else we've been reading about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is way amped. unreal Maybe some dropsondes readings are in this run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, weatherpruf said: Ok, please explain what the EPS is and why it is any more credible, or less so, than anything else we've been reading about. It's the euros ensembles like the gfs has the gefs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, MANDA said: Just looking at probabilities and at quick glance they have blossomed a bit NW. Here are 18Z MEAN and CONTROL What is the difference between mean and Control ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Members are west on the eps Way more tucked big bombs than 12z Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I can't remember any situation like this. I can but I don't want to mention it 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Lol so who's going win the battle euro or the gfs? Or will the cmc come from behind and beat them both? Stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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