LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: This is insane. The pressure gradient over eastern New England is ridiculous, 75mph+ winds. I do not have precip maps but given the track I would guess we are on the western edge of the heavier snow with the heaviest snowfall to our east. But the Euro is another model trending closer to us so we watch and wait: WX/PT This now introduces mixing into SE MA doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 GEFS is unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Looks like we're getting somewhere now. 00z EPS was pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 6 hours ago, Rjay said: @wdrag. Any thoughts? Looks like it's coming per 00z/24 ensembles (EPS/GEFS/NAEFS) and the storm all have been looking for. Biggest is for e LI/Eastern New England but several inches possible down I95 to Raleigh with even dustings possible ATL/AVL. Depends on processes as usual. WPC overnight chances of 3"+ are still only 10%, except 30% BOS. But these probs do not reflect the 00z/24 ensembles. It's still possible ensembles will shrink seaward, but the trend is your friend with 00z/24 op EC/UK/GGEM on board. Bottom line: thread looks more like a hit than a miss. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The 5 day ensemble runs averaging into the 980s tells me this will likely peak in the 950-960mb range. So if things do come together and at that strength then the storm will be inside the BM. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 At this range for the coast (especially E LI/SE Mass), starting to think mix/rain more an issue than a miss with overall setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 still using caution given how our winter has been so far, but euro is encouraging and the gfs is way west. give me a blend of both and its game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: This is insane. The pressure gradient over eastern New England is ridiculous, 75mph+ winds. I do not have precip maps but given the track I would guess we are on the western edge of the heavier snow with the heaviest snowfall to our east. But the Euro is another model trending closer to us so we watch and wait: WX/PT I don't remember ever seeing a low with a pressure of 948 off the northeast coast, not even on a model days out, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Good things happen when I go to bed early 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Looks like it’s game time. This is giving me the chills. If we reach those pressures we are talking one of the greats with the full plate of impacts. From feet of snow (most likely east) to damaging winds and major coastal flooding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Looks like it’s game time. This is giving me the chills. If we reach those pressures we are talking one of the greats with the full plate of impacts. From feet of snow (most likely east) to damaging winds and major coastal flooding.You’re setting yourself up for disappointment talking like that this far out. . 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, North and West said: You’re setting yourself up for disappointment talking like that this far out. . This is 4 days out Plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Yes plenty of time for trends to continue one way or the other and I wouldn’t get invested in one outcome or another yet. Small shifts can put this back out to sea or have it trend to a hugger. Yes it can keep trending to a hugger if the trough keeps amplifying and because we have little/no blocking here. For me at this point I’m happy to see the OTS trend reversing. And for whoever it does affect it could be a massive impact system. If it’s still showing a big coastal impact by Wed night, I’d get a lot more excited. But this season is too chaotic to be at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Is this a snowstorm? Just asking for a friend.... 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 This is 4 days out Plenty of timeI’m not saying it can’t happen, I’m just saying you’re setting yourself up to lose sleep over a girl that may not be in your league.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Good things happen when I go to bed early Maybe you should try napping more often? Ya know, a little power nap around model release times... Couldn't hurt 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 6z eps ticked west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 06z EPS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 8-10 in the city on the EPS mean, 10-15 on LI. Needless to say, extremely impressive considering the lead time and the fact that this is an ensemble mean rather than an OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: 8-10 in the city on the EPS mean, 10-15 on LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Man, this storm has massive potential as well as massive heartbreak potential but that's what makes tracking fun, eh? If this comes to fruition, when was the last time the CMC led the way when it was on its own? I honestly can't remember. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Good things happen when I go to bed early Good morning Anthony. Your sentiment will ring especially true, post May. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Man, this storm has massive potential as well as massive heartbreak potential but that's what makes tracking fun, eh? If this comes to fruition, when was the last time the CMC led the way when it was on its own? I honestly can't remember. Gfs had a monster on a few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I will take the eps member with a 947 low southeast of LI. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 There is wiggle room which is good. If the phase is legit which it might be then things should tick west. However the trough is further east than the inland cutter debacle, the placement of the high is much better. But a lot can go wrong this far out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Seems like we're back to reality in that the ensembles led the charge with adjustments west. Not the other way around. Personally, I'm still in ensemble mode until maybe tomorrow's 12z at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs had a monster on a few runs It did and they where into pa. A few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: It did and they where into pa. A few days ago. Gfs had this on the 0z Satuday run and then had a monster on the 18z run Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: It did and they where into pa. A few days ago. Now I remember. The cmc and Euro had it Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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