January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter

[matt8204]

8 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

On the NHC website they have indicated that they are flying three more winter recon flights tomorrow.  One flight will be over the Atlantic and two more over the PAC. This could lead to more model gyrations over the next 24 hours.

Yeah...it'll be a Canary Islands storm at this rate.  

[coastalplainsnowman]

49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Nope.   On this threat (assuming it's truly crapping out) we are seeing changes 2-3 days out-in March 2001 it busted at hour 6-12

If memory serves re March 2001, I remember something along the lines of there being consensus maybe like 6 days out, then at about 4-5 days out that solution disappeared, and was replaced with consensus for a substantially different solution, which generally every model / everyone ran with right up until 18 or so hours out when it was apparent it would bust, only for places out east to end up with 15+ anyway.  Am I remembering that right?

[nycsnow]

Ouch

 

[wthrmn654]

31 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

This is what happens when the vort digs into the SW too much. It messes up the phase. Everything becomes more progressive. That could ruin this whole thing. Northern stream is ready to play ball. But it can't do it all alone. 

We are golden for a good storm

[MJO812]

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

They may be on their own after these 18z runs Lol

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Sell western half

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

18z RGEM holds serve from the 12z run. Brings a few inches to the Jersey shore and several inches out on LI.

I think that's our best bet

[Mitchel Volk]

I believe it’s still too early to forecast amounts.  Too much of the forecast is still in the air,

[MJO812]

Maybe this is the period where the models lose the storm and then bring it back later.

[Jt17]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Maybe this is the period where the models lose the storm and then bring it back later.

can't remember this NOT happening 

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

If memory serves re March 2001, I remember something along the lines of there being consensus maybe like 6 days out, then at about 4-5 days out that solution disappeared, and was replaced with consensus for a substantially different solution, which generally every model / everyone ran with right up until 18 or so hours out when it was apparent it would bust, only for places out east to end up with 15+ anyway.  Am I remembering that right?

something like that.     I think NYC got an inch or two in the end.  Had about 10 out here but a far cry from 18-24 predicted

[Blizzardo]

Im not throwing in the towel until 12 noon Friday.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe this is the period where the models lose the storm and then bring it back later.

I wonder if they are getting some new data....

[Jt17]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

I wonder if they are getting some new data....

Not being facetious when I say this, but they are always getting new data. Thus we shouldn't be surprised to see waffling around. Especially in this set up.

[Jt17]

GFS running...

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Not being facetious when I say this, but they are always getting new data. Thus we shouldn't be surprised to see waffling around. Especially in this set up.

I should have phrased that better-new data meaning something came ashore that was not previously sampled.

[Brasiluvsnow]

GFS,,,,,,,,,,,,,, how's she look ?,,,,,,,,anyone gonna be shocked IF and when it reverses course lol

[Joe4alb]

So far that energy is ever so slightly east of where it was at 12z

[USCG RS]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think that's our best bet

I'm probably going to be labeled as crazy, but, we're not that far away from a much stronger solution, even with the 18z NAM showing what it is showing. 

The H5 phasing rules this entire storm and there is so much energy bouncing around, that models are going to have quite the hard time handling it. I would say just sit tight. We're not done yet. 

[Euripides]

 

Didn't Boxing day blizzard models two days prior go out to sea only to come back the day before.

I still remember Janice Huff saying an inch or two and was like wow you did not check the updates.

[EasternLI]

9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

We are golden for a good storm

Not sold on that yet. I could be on board tomorrow though depending on how this shakes out. Not sold on this failing completely either. Thinking these unfavorable trends will stabilize and possibly some better trends tomorrow. We'll see. Delicate setup for this. 

[Metasequoia]

I wonder if the models are under doing the western extent of the precipitation. Seems under done for a sub 980 mb low.

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, Euripides said:

 

Didn't Boxing day blizzard models two days prior go out to sea only to come back the day before.

I still remember Janice Huff saying an inch or two and was like wow you did not check the updates.

Think it was a full 48hours when it came back. I remember being at the bar and seeing it pop back up on models on my BlackBerry lol.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, Euripides said:

 

Didn't Boxing day blizzard models two days prior go out to sea only to come back the day before.

I still remember Janice Huff saying an inch or two and was like wow you did not check the updates.

We had a lot of blocking that winter and managed 3 actual KU/ big events, though they were not all in the same areas; I got about 32 Boxing Day, 9 during the one that mostly affected CT, and 19 a few weeks later. Then it was over by then end of Jan.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, Metasequoia said:

I wonder if the models are under doing the western extent of the precipitation. Seems under done for a sub 980 mb low.

In my experience, models almost never under do the extent of the precip....but who knows?

[Franklin0529]

Gfs leaving alot energy behind.  

[Euripides]

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Think it was a full 48hours when it came back. I remember being at the bar and seeing it pop back up on models on my BlackBerry lol.

My bad as I am off an extra day so when I watched her the blizzard was back on maps and weather boards but she did not realize it yet giving forecast 24 hour prior to it. 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We had a lot of blocking that winter and managed 3 actual KU/ big events, though they were not all in the same areas; I got about 32 Boxing Day, 9 during the one that mostly affected CT, and 19 a few weeks later. Then it was over by then end of Jan.

Boxing Day was my favorite storm of all time, and I was a kid for 96. Still like my memories of 2010 best out of all the storms I've seen here in NJ the past 30 years. Was in North Brunswick at the time.

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, Euripides said:

 

Didn't Boxing day blizzard models two days prior go out to sea only to come back the day before.

I still remember Janice Huff saying an inch or two and was like wow you did not check the updates.

It was modelled to happen at 6 days, started to vaporize at 4 days, popped back up as Janice was giving her the update that NYC was getting 2 inches.  

This is not boxing day.