LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 16 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: I thought that wasn’t depicted as a hit at all until it arrived. yes a true nowcasting event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 19 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Guys, if you think its necessary to post the same thing numerous times within minutes…please go for a walk or something. Take a break. someone weenied the moderator lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, KeithB said: I actually have driven to Albany for a snowstorm ( a few years ago) that I couldn't deal with missing as we were going to turn to rain (and that's the most painful), and another time I drove to North Conway NH for a Biggie. I got a hotel, and took 2 snowshoe hikes on the trails just off the Kancamagus Highway. I highly recommend it if anyone ever has the chance! yes once you're in the middle of it you forget all the travel time and it's like being at home... home is wherever the snow is as the "new" saying goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 18 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: No, 2017. In 2007 we knew we were in for sleet because the warm nose aloft was well forecast. Some areas in 2017 did get a lot of snow but not mine. I didn't even know there was any sleet with that storm, just snow or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 instead of taking a walk, im going to take a nap and dream of pulling this westward! I’m glad we are that much closer to a solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 According to the 18z nam I'm going to have to drive to Newfoundland to see a snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Upton still saying heavy snow possible here AFD from KOKX (cod.edu) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 This is what happens when the vort digs into the SW too much. It messes up the phase. Everything becomes more progressive. That could ruin this whole thing. Northern stream is ready to play ball. But it can't do it all alone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: If you take this so seriously it's a horrible hobby. It's just freakin frozen rain which looks white and 5 hours later turns into black and yellow slush and ice puddles.So glad I don't give a crap anymore. I just follow the tracking, that's fun..But the snow?..I can finally live without it. I'm free! I mean it helps when you've experienced several 20 inch storms like we have. Anything we ever get from now until we die is gravy. I honestly dont care if it ever snows again, because we've experienced the best and worst winter has to offer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I mean, a later phase is what we have been seeing nearly all day save for a NAM run. So that looks like the logical trend to shed light on the outcome. I don't see models all over the place with random solutions. There is a consistent theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, EasternLI said: This is what happens when the vort digs into the SW too much. It messes up the phase. Everything becomes more progressive. That could ruin this whole thing. Northern stream is ready to play ball. But it can't do it all alone. I thought being progressive is good because it means the energy gets ejected sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lawnguyland Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 NWS seems to think we are getting a decent snowfall, which I understand can easily change in the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have no clue what to think about these runs. These shifts are really drastic. Mid Atlantic states get more snow than the northeast on this Nam run Ant - the shortwaves expected to be involved with this system were more completely sampled today. This was noted on this thread earlier. The new data went through the algorithms used by the models. Unfortunately the result of that is what we see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I mean it helps when you've experienced several 20 inch storms like we have. Anything we ever get from now until we die is gravy. I honestly dont care if it ever snows again, because we've experienced the best and worst winter has to offer. When you get in your 50's and 60's, snow all of a sudden becomes cold and messy. It's part of nature and the aging process I guess 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I mean it helps when you've experienced several 20 inch storms like we have. Anything we ever get from now until we die is gravy. I honestly dont care if it ever snows again, because we've experienced the best and worst winter has to offer. I got two feet a year ago. I knew I was very unlikely to get anything substantive from this one. This was always going to be a coastal event assuming it would happen. I feel sorry for you guys on the coast with this latest turn of events on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: I thought being progressive is good because it means the energy gets ejected sooner? No. The energy is hanging back in the SW messing up the phase. So the storm doesn't get a chance to amplify on the east coast. Heights stay flatter in the east and everything happens too late. If at all. We want the energy in the SW to be more progressive. We're going the other direction right now with that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: When you get in your 50's and 60's, snow all of a sudden becomes cold and messy. It's part of nature and the aging process I guess I don't like it as much as I used to but it's still exciting to track a storm and see how people get into a frenzy when there's talk of snow. Breaks the monotony of the cold and grey of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Icon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On the NHC website they have indicated that they are flying three more winter recon flights tomorrow. One flight will be over the Atlantic and two more over the PAC. This could lead to more model gyrations over the next 24 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, Lawnguyland said: NWS seems to think we are getting a decent snowfall, which I understand can easily change in the next few days. That’s basically a carbon copy of the 12z euro. By tonight it will be much different 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Icon? New England forum says ICON is way east. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Tatamy said: On the NHC website they have indicated that they are flying three more winter recon flights tomorrow. One flight will be over the Atlantic and two more over the PAC. This could lead to more model gyrations over the next 24 hours. Hopefully the 12z runs tomorrow will have a good consensus either good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Icon? 18z ICON still has the storm however it is further east like the rest of the models. Still brings a few inches to coastal areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 18z RGEM looks about the same to me, maybe a small bit SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Epic collapse of models last few hours; hopefully it’s all the extra data making them wonky has happened before 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 no reason to think the 18 GFS won't go way east too ICON just did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 18z RGEM holds serve from the 12z run. Brings a few inches to the Jersey shore and several inches out on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: 18z RGEM looks about the same to me, maybe a small bit SE. It still gets a few inches all the way back to western NJ. The really big storm idea seems to be falling apart, but hopefully we can at least pull off something like RGEM is showing. Several inches would at least be a decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 As Forky suggested, let's wait until the wave arrives in the SW second half of tomorrow before getting excited or dejected. This is an important feature in the evolution of this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Now if that vort doesn't get held back as much. You can quickly get these bigger storm solutions showing back up in a hurry too. Something to keep in mind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now