LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Nope. On this threat (assuming it's truly crapping out) we are seeing changes 2-3 days out-in March 2001 it busted at hour 6-12 Was March 2014 a bust too? I heard it went from a forecast of a foot 6 hours out to an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: What is the nam doing lol The models are really struggling with where the LP should be focused. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: March 2017 busted very late in the game as well; the weather service didn't even drop the warning amounts IIRC, because they felt the sleetfest was dangerous and didn't want people to get complacent. But we went from a prediction of 18-24 to about 5 of sleet, and some places less than that. March 2007? thats when we had 5 inches of sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 from 12-16 inches to nothing in one run 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 1/25/00 was another one but 22 yrs ago models were not as good... I thought that wasn’t depicted as a hit at all until it arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 18z nam at hour 63: then at 66: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: March 2007? thats when we had 5 inches of sleet Absolute misery. Think it was about 12 degrees also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: March 2007? thats when we had 5 inches of sleet No, 2017. In 2007 we knew we were in for sleet because the warm nose aloft was well forecast. Some areas in 2017 did get a lot of snow but not mine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Consistency 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Brian5671 said: from 12-16 inches to nothing in one run Every time a big threat shows up people give the long range NAM more weight than they should even though every educated poster says time and time again how it cannot be trusted. In this type of setup you want the NAM beyond 48hrs to show rain for Long Island and Boston in order to feel confident. It's always overamplified and corrects inside day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: 18z nam at hour 63: then at 66 same run: I can't imagine it's going to hop around like this, all of the models seem to be shooting darts with the location of the LP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Every time a big threat shows up people give the long range NAM more weight than they should even though every educated poster says time and time again how it cannot be trusted. In this type of setup you want the NAM beyond 48hrs to show rain for Long Island and Boston in order to feel confident. It's always overamplified and corrects inside day 2. agreed but this is one of the wonkiest changes I've ever seen in this model 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, CIK62 said: STORM OVER. NAM SCREWS YOU AND YOUR NEARBY COUSINS........................... Didn't they used to call this a fish storm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nam is lol worthy. Even SNE gets screwed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 That’s a drastic change. We really gotta wait till 12z tomorrow to see what’s going on. Hopefully 00z has new data and a better handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, CIK62 said: STORM OVER. NAM SCREWS YOU AND YOUR NEARBY COUSINS........................... How many days until pitchers and catchers? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 That was a laughable run by the 18z nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, matt8204 said: How many days until pitchers and catchers? might be months -players are locked out of training camps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The long range NAM is fools gold with East coast storms. Doesn't matter how many times you say it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I know some people are denying it, even pros, but the trends are pretty clear starting with last night's runs. It doesn't mean threat over but an east trend is evident. You can't say "It's just the Nam". Every model is trending more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I have no clue what to think about these runs. These shifts are really drastic. Mid Atlantic states get more snow than the northeast on this Nam run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: might be months -players are locked out of training camps Yep another sad thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 13 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Guys, if you think its necessary to post the same thing numerous times within minutes…please go for a walk or something. Take a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have no clue what to think about these runs. These shifts are really drastic. Mid Atlantic states get more snow than the northeast on this Nam run Theme of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Theme of the winter True 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Was March 2014 a bust too? I heard it went from a forecast of a foot 6 hours out to an inch? No that was about 2-3 days out as well...kind of like what we're seeing today-I remember that one-the PV crushed everything south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: You always talk about traveling, get on the LIRR or drive to eastern LI. It's not that far away and I think a lot of us should do it to experience a really big snowstorm. Then we can all rub it in snowman19's face lol. Who cares whether it snows in the city or not, it looks like dirty toxic stuff in a day or two anyway, let's go east to see the snow where it will actually look pretty. I actually have driven to Albany for a snowstorm ( a few years ago) that I couldn't deal with missing as we were going to turn to rain (and that's the most painful), and another time I drove to North Conway NH for a Biggie. I got a hotel, and took 2 snowshoe hikes on the trails just off the Kancamagus Highway. I highly recommend it if anyone ever has the chance! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T5403CG Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I have no clue what to think about these runs. These shifts are really drastic. Mid Atlantic states get more snow than the northeast on this Nam runThe 500's were ugly... soon as I got a whiff of those I knew it was game over... Not sure what is to come... but every model is now screaming a more progressive trough... even the JMA....Once you lose the JMA... it makes one wake-up...Wow... What a turn of events from early this morning...Hopefully, it gets better....Sent from my moto g power (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 pink diamonds ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I have no clue what to think about these runs. These shifts are really drastic. Mid Atlantic states get more snow than the northeast on this Nam run If you take this so seriously it's a horrible hobby. It's just freakin frozen rain which looks white and 5 hours later turns into black and yellow slush and ice puddles.So glad I don't give a crap anymore. I just follow the tracking, that's fun..But the snow?..I can finally live without it. I'm free! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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