Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Now would be a perfect time for NAM to continue to mess with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: SNE Mets are pretty insistent that the snow will end up further west than modeled due to the moist inflow and evolution so that might be a weenie to hang your hat on. There usually is a weenie band on the western end of these that brings surprise high totals. Who knows how that will happen here but to keep in mind. Well it will have to be a lot further west for some of us....hoping for 4-8 and will be happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: We can’t really say there have been any model trends over the last several days. All the back and forth between models and their individual runs is more like the windshield wiper effect. Some runs eject the southern stream vort more quickly and others more slowly. Plus models aren’t great at guessing which convective blob over the Gulf Stream will become the dominant low from 72 hrs out. The Euro would have looked much different if the western of the two lows became the dominant one. But all these varying solutions are within the standard East Coast storm track error range at 72 hrs. tracking this since day 10 obscures the fact that this is still far away in model time 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 32 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Stop SETTLING and get back in the game kid Acceptance of reality is a good thing I've learned over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: tracking this since day 10 obscures the fact that this is still far away in model time It truly is and I hate looking at things so far ahead because anything can happen, and mostly they don't come out to anything like the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: tracking this since day 10 obscures the fact that this is still far away in model time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: the Euro on it's previous 06z run and 12z run and NAM on it's 12z model run did a similar thing with the low depiction. Hopefully it's just temporary noise that resolves over the next few runs and gets the weenies of the ledge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: I did notice the low jumped around which might be a sign the models are still having a bit of a hard time recognizing which will become the dominant low. This happened with our only decent snow of the winter so far too that the western low became the dominant one. We can only hope...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Acceptance of reality is a good thing I've learned over the years. I get it but it's only the 3rd qtr and there is still time a lot can happen get a bat in your hands you're pinch hitting for snowy19 ,,,,geez if we get nammed or models look different throughout the day will everyone feel a wee bit better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Models can be great at detecting the long range storm signal. But it seems like the the important details often have to wait until we are within 24 to 48 hrs. Even when we are 24 hrs out, there can still be model disagreement. It’s why I cringed when yesterday we were seeing big solutions and knew we still had 84-96 hours left then. We’re still at lousy end of NAM run range and not even within the 3k, WRF, NMM etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I'm taking a break. Some of you should, too. Clear mind, clear thoughts. Refresh and come back to it later. Along with what was posted about the Tweet from Mike Masco I've read some about this being an anomalous run of the Euro that flubbed positioning a bit. I'd say room for a bit of optimism. See you hotdogs later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: This is what I spent nearly 10 posts trying to explain but some people just don't want to hear it. You cannot just look at the surface. The surface is for weenies. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nam leaving more energy behind in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I get it but it's only the 3rd qtr and there is still time a lot can happen get a bat in your pinch hitting for snowy19 ,,,,geez if we get nammed or models look different throughout the day will everyone feel a wee bit better What if it's 20 min remaining and you're down by two goals and your forwards can't get out of their own end.....there's time enough, but something has to change..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: I did notice the low jumped around which might be a sign the models are still having a bit of a hard time recognizing which will become the dominant low. This happened with our only decent snow of the winter so far too that the western low became the dominant one. We can only hope...... There really was interference with convection in that storm so it can definitely happen. But the upper air development was good enough to compensate for many of us to get 6-9” from NYC east and in CT/MA up to 13”. This will have WAY more moisture to work with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: What if it's 20 min remaining and you're down by two goals and your forwards can't get out of their own end.....there's time enough, but something has to change..... might be a good time to use our time out and regroup ,,,,,,let's see what the models are showing the rest of today and more importantly by this time tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: The trends out west is what is killing this for us but *shrug* PNA ridge out there going bye bye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: There really was interference with convection in that storm so it can definitely happen. But the upper air development was good enough to compensate for many of us to get 6-9” from NYC east and in CT/MA up to 13”. This will have WAY more moisture to work with. when will the data from those airplanes be ingested by the models? 0z tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Some negative changes early in nam. Let's see what happens with the ns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Acceptance of reality is a good thing I've learned over the years. I truly wish humanity had the balls and the brains to control the weather. There are so many good things we could be doing to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Some negative changes early in nam. Let's see what happens with the ns Of course I'm not too optimistic about this storm but NAM is still sort of out it's prime range although yes what it looks like up to hour 48 is important. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Of course I'm not too optimistic about this storm but NAM is still sort of out it's prime range although yes what it looks like up to hour 48 is important. Yep. Just looking out west for trends. an its not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd ..Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance for the most recent couple of cycles continues to show a rapidly deepening (bomb) cyclone in the western Atlantic over the weekend, but continues to waffle somewhat with its exact track, and the relatively fine-scale wobbles can cause notably different weather impacts. Latest guidance continues to favor an intermediate/consensus approach for depicting the western Atlantic storm during the weekend. A significant key to the forecast of the surface low by late Saturday appears to be exactly when, where, and how deeply the upper low within the overall trough closes off. ECMWF runs have been reasonably persistent on the earlier/deeper side with GFS runs at little later/weaker. Overall the forecast position for the low on Saturday and Sunday was very similar to the previous WPC forecast issuance, per the 00Z/06Z model consensus and taking somewhat of an average position between the slightly slower EC other faster models. However, incoming 12Z guidance has shown a slightly eastward/more offshore trend particularly on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I truly wish humanity had the balls and the brains to control the weather. There are so many good things we could be doing to it. No you don’t. Then we would have very boring weather. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Probabilities from 12Z EURO. The 6", 12" and 18" probabilities have come down across this forum as the area of probabilities has contracted at each increment. Not a good sign. Not trying to be a downer or cancel the event just stating that as we get closer to event you do not want to see probabilities coming down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I see very subtle changes so far on the NAM. If anything the southern stream energy looks stronger than 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Those big amounts were garbage because there is no blocking for those amounts. Skewed from members that bought into the idea of capture and stall. I'm not sure blocking was the variable causing those outputs, because it was never input into the solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 NYC went from a 17-10 halftime lead to a 24-17 deficit at the end of the 3rd quarter. For eastern LI it's more like going from a 24-10 lead to a tied game at the end of the third quarter. I hope the football analogy is ok. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I see very subtle changes so far on the NAM. If anything the southern stream energy looks stronger than 12z. Leaving more energy back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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