tim Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The Champ just became one of the Chimps. The heaviest snowfall area has shifted from Cape May to Eastern LI in two runs. I have been cut in half from yesterday's 18". Could be game over. NWS hardly even mentioned snow and certainly not a blizzard possibility on KWO-35 this morning. This run makes them look like stars. ..still pretty good for us easterners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Greg g said: What do you of us in westchester and rockland?? How do think we are fairing ?? 2 to 6 as of now. More downside than up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: You wouldn't happen to have the 12Z NBM map would you? TIA... No, I don’t have the subscription. I think that’s paywalled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Greg g said: What do you of us in westchester and rockland?? How do think we are fairing ?? 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: 2 to 6 as of now. More downside than up. That question was actually directed at Justin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12Z EPS Mean and Control Based on these am certain individual members will have also diminished 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, justinj said: When was the last time montauk or the east end actually had more snow than say west of the William Floyd? Seems to almost never happen regardless of track Oh it happens. Just nobody usually cares. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The risk with this becoming northern stream dominated is how far offshore the low can escape before it gets captured and hooked north. That’s where you really do have the risk for it becoming another Juno 2015. The best bet for us (outside eastern Suffolk who should get slammed either way) is for the southern stream to still be involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 44 minutes ago, KeithB said: 100% agree. Anyone who says the snow threat is dead and it has no chance is a fool. Does it look good, no. But, if you take the average model guidance, and shift it say 75 to 100 miles west, there would still be a major event. Averaged guidance 84 hours out is off by that amount or more a pretty reasonable % of the time. Maybe 15%? I can't say what the exact % is, but it is nowhere in the vicinity of 0%. We have just recently had a storm that moved that distance west from 84 hour guidance. So it's far from impossible. So to say there is no chance is just people doing their usual pessimistic bs, or this is their first rodeo and do not understand how these storms go/ can go The way I see it, it's foolhardy to declare it either way at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Oh it happens. Just nobody usually cares. Yeah more than you might think. 1/27/15, 3/13/18 off top of my head. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 There certainly has been a trend in storm totals last several runs on the EURO no denying it. Yes, 500 does not look that bad at all but we don't live at 500 MBS. Not giving up entirely but I don't like the trends and except for the 12Z NAM there was not much to sink your teeth into. Can there be adjustments to something bigger, yes. My hopes and expectations are not high though. Expecting EPS probabilites to have come way down when they arrive in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Euro verbatim is still the best case scenario for this storm. The trend is not our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 20 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The Champ just became one of the Chimps. The heaviest snowfall area has shifted from Cape May to Eastern LI in two runs. I have been cut in half from yesterday's 18". Could be game over. NWS hardly even mentioned snow and certainly not a blizzard possibility on KWO-35 this morning. This run makes them look like stars. Verbatim it's still a warning level snowfall for NYC but the problem is given where all the rest of the guidance is at I'm expecting it to continue trending east. Lets hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Pretty painful that just the small change of having the wave eject faster would have locked up this storm as a HECS. As is there is still potential for a large event. I plan to chase as long as we don't see any more substantial shifts and the euro holds. SE LI could could a destination for me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I will be happy with a few inches Stop SETTLING and get back in the game kid 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I'm really believing the it snows where it wants to snow thing. Somehow ACY is probably going to get more snow than NYC out of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 15 minutes ago, Greg g said: That question was actually directed at Justin Rockland I think is less, but Westchester should still see 4-8 with eastern Westchester doing the best. It will still be a fun day I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I'm really believing the it snows where it wants to snow thing. Somehow ACY is probably going to get more snow than NYC out of this. Well its actually projected that way on the models so that shouldn't be a surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Blizzardo said: Well its actually projected that way on the models so that shouldn't be a surprise... That wasn't how the setup looked at all a day or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 There was actually quite a few eps members west of the mean. Couple of ridiculous eastern solutions may have skewed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 the do or die model run for last minute hope is 12z tomorrow when the southern energy is consolidating over the rockies 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: There was actually quite a few eps members west of the mean. Couple of ridiculous eastern solutions may have skewed lol I saw that... I feel like that's part of why there's that double barrel feature in the op. I think it's confused 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: That wasn't how the setup looked at all a day or two ago. Yea.. it kinda did... the heavy snows were southern coastal jersey stretching up to Eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Jt17 said: lol I saw that... I feel like that's part of why there's that double barrel feature in the op. I think it's confused The low should've been closer to the coast based off where It closed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I'm really believing the it snows where it wants to snow thing. Somehow ACY is probably going to get more snow than NYC out of this. Some years it finds a way because it seems to want to, and other years (like this one), it finds a way not to. Que sera sera.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Tightrope Walking.... I think banding could bring some nice surprises a little scoot west is all it takes atm dm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: The low should've been closer to the coast based off where It closed off Yea I saw it close off initially and was ready to celebrate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, North and West said: Some years it finds a way because it seems to want to, and other years (like this one), it finds a way not to. Que sera sera. As long as we don't get lost in emotion. (..wonders will anyone will get the reference, and embarrassed that he thought of it) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: That wasn't how the setup looked at all a day or two ago. Heres a clip from page 30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: all those 20-30 inch amts were likely garbage anyway-problem is we see that then we're disapppointed by a 6-10 inch storm which normally we'd be estactic for Those big amounts were garbage because there is no blocking for those amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 SNE Mets are pretty insistent that the snow will end up further west than modeled due to the moist inflow and evolution so that might be a weenie to hang your hat on. There usually is a weenie band on the western end of these that brings surprise high totals. Who knows how that will happen here but to keep in mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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