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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

East of Riverhead is good for 15"+ likely. I'm modestly optimistic NYC makes it to warning level. There's usually a westernmost band in these that can make for surprise high amounts. I'd only really worry at this point if you were hyped on sky high amounts west of Riverhead or if you're well NW of the city, like west of I-287. I'd be more than happy with a 6-10" type event this winter where other than one lucky event we've gotten diddly. 

Might be worth it for a trip out east.  The east end isn't far away and it's silly not to go.  Then we can all say we had our 2 foot snowstorm lol.

 

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Joe4alb
Joe4alb

My father passed away this morning, and he was the inspiration that got me into weather. We used to sit and chat about every storm for hours. This storm is him saying goodbye. 

forkyfork
forkyfork

you guys need to realize any more shifts like we saw today and the blizzard option is on the table for most of the subforum

Rjay
Rjay

Does it ever get old being this bad?

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
Just now, jm1220 said:

East of Riverhead is good for 15"+ likely. I'm modestly optimistic NYC makes it to warning level. There's usually a westernmost band in these that can make for surprise high amounts. I'd only really worry at this point if you were hyped on sky high amounts west of Riverhead or if you're well NW of the city, like west of I-287. I'd be more than happy with a 6-10" type event this winter where other than one lucky event we've gotten diddly. 

all those 20-30 inch amts were likely garbage anyway-problem is we see that then we're disapppointed by a 6-10 inch storm which normally we'd be estactic for

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

It got so cold one winter in the early 80's my gas line in my car froze. But that wasn't the big story; it was the 18 inches dropped in Feb 83....

Exactly, that and the April blizzard are the only two things of note that happened in the winter in the 80s.  Okay maybe the Jan 1987 snowstorm too and the Thanksgiving 1989 snowstorm.  But 1989-1990 is remembered far more for winter suckage than that early season event.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I will also be happy with. 6-12 inch event. 

You always talk about traveling, get on the LIRR or drive to eastern LI.  It's not that far away and I think a lot of us should do it to experience a really big snowstorm.  Then we can all rub it in snowman19's face lol.

Who cares whether it snows in the city or not, it looks like dirty toxic stuff in a day or two anyway, let's go east to see the snow where it will actually look pretty.

 

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jm1220

jm1220

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

all those 20-30 inch amts were likely garbage anyway-problem is we see that then we're disapppointed by a 6-10 inch storm which normally we'd be estactic for

Pros said time and again this is a fickle setup and we're threading a needle, don't get hyped up. I said coming into this season I wouldn't bite on anything unless we're within 72hrs. This pattern is serviceable for a good NYC snow storm but as Don pointed out, it's not classic by any means. So we're seeing the pattern reflect the outcome possibly. 

This winter, take whatever you can get from a snow event and run with it. My average is probably ~32-33"/winter and I'm at less than 1/3 that total with Jan almost over. 

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Rjay

Rjay

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're still 2.5 days out so things have room to change. 

I'm much more optimistic after the 12z suite even if it looked bad overall.

I like the trends out west. If they continue then it'll translate downstream eventually. 

The trends out west is what is killing this for us but *shrug*

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Sn0waddict

Sn0waddict

Posted
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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're still 2.5 days out so things have room to change. 

I'm much more optimistic after the 12z suite even if it looked bad overall.

I like the trends out west. If they continue then it'll translate downstream eventually. 

This surprises me you tend to come off as more pessimistic then most LOL.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pros said time and again this is a fickle setup and we're threading a needle, don't get hyped up. I said coming into this season I wouldn't bite on anything unless we're within 72hrs. This pattern is serviceable for a good NYC snow storm but as Don pointed out, it's not classic by any means. So we're seeing the pattern reflect the outcome possibly. 

This winter, take whatever you can get from a snow event and run with it. My average is probably ~32-33"/winter and I'm at less than 1/3 that total with Jan almost over. 

at about 11 inches here with similar average if we can score 6-10 we'd be close to half or event 2/3 of the way there with roughly 2 months of potential left

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Jt17

Jt17

Posted
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6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're still 2.5 days out so things have room to change. 

I'm much more optimistic after the 12z suite even if it looked bad overall.

I like the trends out west. If they continue then it'll translate downstream eventually. 

What have you noticed out west that has you more optimistic?

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T5403CG

T5403CG

Posted
Posted
You always talk about traveling, get on the LIRR or drive to eastern LI.  It's not that far away and I think a lot of us should do it to experience a really big snowstorm.  Then we can all rub it in snowman19's face lol.
Who cares whether it snows in the city or not, it looks like dirty toxic stuff in a day or two anyway, let's go east to see the snow where it will actually look pretty.
 
Take in a blizzard in Greenport.. you won't regret it...

Sent from my moto g power (2021) using Tapatalk

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
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The Champ just became one of the Chimps.         The heaviest snowfall area has shifted from Cape May to Eastern LI in two runs.        I have been cut in half from yesterday's  18".      Could be game over.        NWS hardly even mentioned snow and certainly not a blizzard possibility on KWO-35 this morning.        This run makes them look like stars.

1643565600-tRudCWjBICM.png

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
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1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

What have you noticed out west that has you more optimistic?

If the northern stream really does get more amplified and the PNA ridge more steep, it might still amp our storm enough to come closer to the coast and bomb out without the help from the southern stream. But to me that's a longer shot than with the southern stream phasing in early. The PNA ridge is in a pretty good place for us. I'd actually be surprised to see an OTS solution or graze with the ridge axis over Idaho. 

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Rmine1

Rmine1

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The trends out west is what is killing this for us but *shrug*

Killing this for us? Killing how? Some snow!!? Some snow? Or nada? I respect your thoughts, hence why I asked 

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JustinRP37

JustinRP37

Posted
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23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I don't know if I would use the word most, but it was a fine run for the time frame that we're out. 

The GFS and the Euro are still more than 100+ miles apart in terms of how far West the significant snow gets.

I don't know... Population wise, I'd say far more people are in the snow zone than out of it. Long Island and coastal CT are definitely in our forum area and the metropolitan area. As is coastal NJ. Sorry for the inland, north and west folks. 

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justinj

justinj

Posted
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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If it's doable for you I'd definitely head out there. Montauk is nice this time of year. 

When was the last time montauk or the east end actually had more snow than say west of the William Floyd? Seems to almost never happen regardless of track 

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Greg g

Greg g

Posted
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Just now, JustinRP37 said:

I don't know... Population wise, I'd say far more people are in the snow zone than out of it. Long Island and coastal CT are definitely in our forum area and the metropolitan area. As is coastal NJ. Sorry for the inland, north and west folks. 

What do you of us in westchester and rockland?? How do think we are fairing ??

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