MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Gefs on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Last 6 runs of the gefs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Last 6 runs of the gefs I'd say that's the right direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: What's to stop this from running inland? I know the Atlantic blocking isn't that strong...that's part of the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, Metasequoia said: What's to stop this from running inland? I know the Atlantic blocking isn't that strong...that's part of the answer. Nothing. But the bigger fear right now is still east. Everything is just so progressive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Ukie 50mb deeper this run around our latitude and decently west compared to the last run. Still looks pretty far out, but the trend is our friend... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 In my intial post I talked about how we would need to thread the needle. This remains very true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, Jt17 said: Ukie 50mb deeper this run around our latitude and decently west compared to the last run. Still looks pretty far out, but the trend is our friend... The ukie was an absolute bomb just east of the bm (which is not really our bm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: The ukie was an absolute bomb just east of the bm (which is not really our bm) This run: Last run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Nothing Yeah...tenuous at 5 days out. Inland runner and whiff still on the table IMO. Whiff still my biggest concern...but we could all be hoping for an eastern correction in the days ahead. Still nice to see these runs tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I didn't see this thread until now, good to see it. I think this appears to have major maybe historic potential. The ceiling is higher than for most events this year because it's on the cusp of a pattern change and as we lead into it, if the movement of the storm slows just a little the trough can sharpen up and tuck it in just enough to put us in very heavy snow. The storm could have both GOM and Atlantic moisture as well. I just posted all the maps in the wrong thread but that's how the day has been. WX/PT 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Bowling ball on the UKMET 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 hours ago, Intensewind002 said: We had an 18” storm only a few years ago in suffolk, march 2018. Did western Nassau get shafted in that one? Yup as did the city. It happens over and over again, I think it's because urbanized areas can't experience that kind of extreme snowfall event so late in the season.....too much concrete. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 50 minutes ago, Rjay said: The ukie was an absolute bomb just east of the bm (which is not really our bm) I thought it's the benchmark for everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 51 minutes ago, Rjay said: In my intial post I talked about how we would need to thread the needle. This remains very true. where is that SE ridge that's supposed to be a permanent feature of our new climate? In theory at least OTS storms should be way less common because of how much stronger it is compared to previous decades in a warmer climate and with warmer Atlantic SST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said: Amazing. Very nice trends tonight. Let's bring this one home!! SE Ridge is your friend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Enjoy the old school maps Looks like B&W TV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Further south, four closed isobars as opposed to one on the last run, this could be huge if it comes north. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Big improvements on the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Euro trending towards CMC now: 12z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Let's see what tomorrow brings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 This is insane. The pressure gradient over eastern New England is ridiculous, 75mph+ winds. I do not have precip maps but given the track I would guess we are on the western edge of the heavier snow with the heaviest snowfall to our east. But the Euro is another model trending closer to us so we watch and wait: WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Improvements for the NYC forum on the Euro especially east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 This beginning to have a February 5, 1978 feel to it. Of course many things are different. But that storm also started with a low over the ocean down off the southeast coast and came closer and closer to us as time went on. WX/PT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Night and day differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: Night and day differences. Diurnal you say? I'll see myself out 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: This is insane. The pressure gradient over eastern New England is ridiculous, 75mph+ winds. I do not have precip maps but given the track I would guess we are on the western edge of the heavier snow with the heaviest snowfall to our east. But the Euro is another model trending closer to us so we watch and wait: WX/PT This could trend towards a Boxing Day type event, there is nothing really keeping it from going even further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: This beginning to have a February 5, 1978 feel to it. Of course many things are different. But that storm also started with a low over the ocean down off the southeast coast and came closer and closer to us as time went on. WX/PT More like Boxing Day but granted I dont remember 2/78 outside of seeing a lot of white outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now