weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: A lot of people forget that in general when it comes to snow for the I-95 corridor, the deck is stacked against us. Theirs a reason why seasonal snowfall averages are what they are. You need everything to come together perfectly and a major component to that is blocking. The fact that we're even looking at such a big storm in such a progressive pattern is amazing in itself. More or less relying in this case on the phase/energy being so explosive that it turns into a dynamic bomb. That is all a matter of perspective; many, many people believe 30 inches on average annually is a lot of snow and more than they want to deal with. In fact, these boards aside, I know of no one who roots for snow, and they'd be happy if it never snowed here again. The deck is stacked against those who wish for lots of snow; this isn't the area for that, which makes those rare storms all the more interesting. A couple feet of snow in the Rockies isn't all that unusual; frequent snow in Syracuse or Rochester is par for the course. But a big snow in NYC or Philly ( not so much Boston, which gets more, or Chicago, which has more events, though mostly smaller ) or DC, or any city where that isn't a normal occurrence, is big news. I don't know if people in St. Paul get excited over 3-6 inches, but I'm guessing not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 26 minutes ago, jm1220 said: GGEM was a step down from 0z but not a disaster I'd say from the city east. Looks like 3" in Central Park, 5-6" where I am to 8-10" over the forks using the 10-1 map. Even some minor snow NW of the city. UKMET while still lousy was much better at 12z than last night. Accumulating snow gets into the city, about 5" for me, amounts reach 12" for the forks. These actually match the GFS output pretty well. Definitely plausible if we delay the phase/keep the trough progressive and don't close off. But 50 mile adjustment NW from these would still be a very nice event for many of us and that's also definitely possible. We are good for a nice snowstorm this weekend. West of the city, maybe not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That is all a matter of perspective; many, many people believe 30 inches on average annually is a lot of snow and more than they want to deal with. In fact, these boards aside, I know of no one who roots for snow, and they'd be happy if it never snowed here again. The deck is stacked against those who wish for lots of snow; this isn't the area for that, which makes those rare storms all the more interesting. A couple feet of snow in the Rockies isn't all that unusual; frequent snow in Syracuse or Rochester is par for the course. But a big snow in NYC or Philly ( not so much Boston, which gets more, or Chicago, which has more events, though mostly smaller ) or DC, or any city where that isn't a normal occurrence, is big news. I don't if people in St. Paul get excited over 3-6 inches, but I'm guessing not. Most people would be very surprised of the averages in most Midwestern Cities. Minneapolis 51.2 Detroit 45.0 Inches Chicago 38.8 inches NYC 29.8 inches Indianapolis 25.5 inches Cincinnati 23.3 inches Kansas City 18.2 inches St. Louis 16.6 inches The big difference in the cities that get more like Chicago, Detroit and of course Minneapolis is it sticks around a lot longer than in NYC. Also as you alluded to it comes in much smaller doses in those cities. One foot snowfalls are pretty rare in all three as compared to NYC. I always use the stat Minneapolis has had only five 17 inch snowfalls or above since they've kept records since the 1880's. NYC has had seven 17 inch or greater storms in just the last 18 years. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That is all a matter of perspective; many, many people believe 30 inches on average annually is a lot of snow and more than they want to deal with. In fact, these boards aside, I know of no one who roots for snow, and they'd be happy if it never snowed here again. The deck is stacked against those who wish for lots of snow; this isn't the area for that, which makes those rare storms all the more interesting. A couple feet of snow in the Rockies isn't all that unusual; frequent snow in Syracuse or Rochester is par for the course. But a big snow in NYC or Philly ( not so much Boston, which gets more, or Chicago, which has more events, though mostly smaller ) or DC, or any city where that isn't a normal occurrence, is big news. I don't know if people in St. Paul get excited over 3-6 inches, but I'm guessing not. Okay I'm speaking about the people on this board, mostly snow and weather enthusiasts. Not the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Not giving up till Forky gives up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Let's wait for upcoming runs before jumping off the ledge, k guys? Everyone expected shifts, if they hold or worsen then it's time to worry. Let's see how the Euro responds. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Okay I'm speaking about the people on this board, mostly snow and weather enthusiasts. Not the general public. I know you are, but I'm just trying to add some perspective, so maybe people here might not feel so down about it. Actually we have weather enthusiasts here who don't like cold and snow either; they pop up from time to time to cheer the warmth. Obviously I'm not one of those types. In my case, I'm no fan of severe weather, and I know people here follow it. I'd be happy to never see another hurricane or severe thunder storm. Tornados? Wish they didn't exist. In any case, I always appreciate your posts; always well informed and reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said: Let's wait for upcoming runs before jumping off the ledge, k guys? Everyone expected shifts, if they hold or worsen then it's time to worry. Let's see how the Euro responds. When's the next one up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: We are good for a nice snowstorm this weekend. West of the city, maybe not. If expectations are for amounts similar to what we had for earlier this month's storm, sure. That's about what I'd predict for us now. Of course if we get the better phase and shift NW at the end it could be significantly more. But Euro/NAM have a big asterisk for now given all the other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I will be happy with a few inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, weatherpruf said: When's the next one up? Few mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: I will be happy with a few inches Give me a 6-10" storm I'll be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Euro running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Give me a 6-10" storm I'll be happy 24-36" for me - just looking for a nice winter look, nothing crazy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I will be happy with a few inches Liar 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 10 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Most people would be very surprised of the averages in most Midwestern Cities. Minneapolis 51.2 Detroit 45.0 Inches Chicago 38.8 inches NYC 29.8 inches Indianapolis 25.5 inches Cincinnati 23.3 inches Kansas City 18.2 inches St. Louis 16.6 inches The big difference in the cities that get more like Chicago, Detroit and of course Minneapolis is it sticks around a lot longer than in NYC. Also as you alluded to it comes in much smaller doses in those cities. One foot snowfalls are pretty rare in all three as compared to NYC. I always use the stat Minneapolis has had only five 17 inch snowfalls or above since they've kept records since the 1880's. NYC has had seven 17 inch or greater storms in just the last 18 years. Yes or even I think your area has a snowpack off 12 inches of snow this winter lol. The city/coast is so dependent on noreasters and honestly i'd probably prefer the dink and dunks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The lack of forecasters popping in and weighing in here reflects the uncertainty right now IMO. We're also not seeing anyone so far saying to give it up yet, because it's too early.. Is there writing on the wall for disappointment? Yeah, probably. If the Euro holds and the NAM continues with a good look as it gets closer inside its range, I'd say there's still hope for a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 While we're waiting on the EURO...a little levity. 4 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The behavior is typical. Just another day on the weather forums with a bomb on the radar.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I will be happy with a few inches That's what she said. After all the pain and suffering this winter we are looking for more than a few to make up for our disappointments. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 So what are ya'll gonna do when King Euro tucks and dumps? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It's an emotional thing, no doubt. I don't hold it against anyone. I feel like I need AA after this, whatever happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jt17 said: 24-36" for me - just looking for a nice winter look, nothing crazy. Of course I'd want that too. But that's not happening lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The 12z GEFS still has a decent cluster of members near the benchmark at 00z Sunday. A lot less spread overall than the previous two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 29 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That is all a matter of perspective; many, many people believe 30 inches on average annually is a lot of snow and more than they want to deal with. In fact, these boards aside, I know of no one who roots for snow, and they'd be happy if it never snowed here again. The deck is stacked against those who wish for lots of snow; this isn't the area for that, which makes those rare storms all the more interesting. A couple feet of snow in the Rockies isn't all that unusual; frequent snow in Syracuse or Rochester is par for the course. But a big snow in NYC or Philly ( not so much Boston, which gets more, or Chicago, which has more events, though mostly smaller ) or DC, or any city where that isn't a normal occurrence, is big news. I don't know if people in St. Paul get excited over 3-6 inches, but I'm guessing not. That's one reason why it's been so hard to get traction against AGW, most people actually want a warmer climate. Of course if you live in an island nation that's being threatened by it or live near a forest that burns every year, then you think differently. That's why in my opinion, what people think shouldn't matter, and AI should be running all our systems, to make the most logical and scientific policy decisions without regard to human "feelings" 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 37 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: A lot of people forget that in general when it comes to snow for the I-95 corridor, the deck is stacked against us. Theirs a reason why seasonal snowfall averages are what they are. You need everything to come together perfectly and a major component to that is blocking. The fact that we're even looking at such a big storm in such a progressive pattern is amazing in itself. More or less relying in this case on the phase/energy being so explosive that it turns into a dynamic bomb. The deck is not stacked against us. It snows here plenty. This is a bad year with a fast pattern. I suggested a few weeks ago stopping these threads 7/8/9 days out. It is ridiculous! Guys are grasping at straws and then get mad when it doesn’t happen. then a week from now, do the same thing all over again. Meanwhile, it is sucking all the oxygen out of the monthly threads. We have had a very cold January and there’s been almost no discussion about it. This is going to kill the forum as guys just get exhausted with it. You have people staying up all night to track a storm days from now that is never coming. It isnt healthy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yes or even I think your area has a snowpack off 12 inches of snow this winter lol. The city/coast is so dependent on noreasters and honestly i'd probably prefer the dink and dunks. 12.8 inches so far this season, below average, but the saving grace is I've had a solid snow cover since January 7th. An ice encrusted 4-5 inch snow cover as of this morning and it's not going anywhere soon. Although if nothing materializes this weekend it may well be in jeopardy midweek, next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 25 minutes ago, psv88 said: We are good for a nice snowstorm this weekend. West of the city, maybe not. Sounds a lot like December 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Most people have no concept of the extreme volatility AGW will force into the climate system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: That's one reason why it's been so hard to get traction against AGW, most people actually want a warmer climate. Of course if you live in an island nation that's being threatened by it or live near a forest that burns every year, then you think differently. There's a reason the upper midwest is losing population to the sun belt...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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