nycwinter Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's funny how the CMC and GFS first had this storm a huge snowstorm for the area and quickly trended weaker and east with it and them the Euro picked it up. the weaker the storm the more east it went... now if the storm was in the 950's it would have been different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not really All the models did show a huge storm at one point. Remember 18z Saturday on the gfs ? yes with a lack of reliable data input......the main features are now inland being sampled more accurately - and when all the models are showing further east - time to believe them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Because the models suck They shouldnt go out past 84 hours Did you see the Ukie yet? Someone just posted on Twitter that it’s a disaster, it’s not out of Pivotal weather yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Didn't like that gfs run. Looked a bit worse early on. Tried to wrap up a little quicker in the end, but not a good run there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: I think we all need to take a deep breathe and relax everything is still on the table. Because small changes can make a huge difference (see 06z vs 12z Nam) this is still worth watching till tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Did you see the Ukie yet? Someone just posted on Twitter that it’s a disaster, it’s not out of Pivotal weather yet It's terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Just goes to show the importance of Atlantic blocking. It slows everything down allowing shortwaves to phase at the right moment. If you don't have that then a very strong PNA like Feb 2006 can help. The PNA this time isn't as strong. I think you are onto something and without blocking it just doesn't cut it. Let's see if we can wind up with anything significant, though I'm starting to doubt even that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I think you are onto something and without blocking it just doesn't cut it. Let's see if we can wind up with anything significant, though I'm starting to doubt even that.... Blocking would have prevented this from going way offshore and have no chance of an exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Starting to think it is more fun watching the fantasy solutions than the actual storms, which can be a pain in the neck. Never played fantasy sports, maybe we should have a fantasy storm club.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 just want to give a reminder from 2 days before the 1/23/2016 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Just goes to show the importance of Atlantic blocking. It slows everything down allowing shortwaves to phase at the right moment. If you don't have that then a very strong PNA like Feb 2006 can help. The PNA this time isn't as strong. yeah in Don's post the AO is +1.8 NAO also positive.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Blocking would have prevented this from going way offshore and have no chance of an exit. The flow would've been slower allowing the SW shortwave to phase in and have the system go negative quickly. If for any reason the 12z suite is wrong and the energy phases in quickly then the entire outlook changes in a hurry. That's how delicate this setup is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, NYC10023 said: just want to give a reminder from 2 days before the 1/23/2016 storm Didn't that storm have blocking though? I mean it wasn't moving that fast IIRC.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Just goes to show the importance of Atlantic blocking. It slows everything down allowing shortwaves to phase at the right moment. If you don't have that then a very strong PNA like Feb 2006 can help. The PNA this time isn't as strong. This has always been described as a thread the needle system. We don’t have much help from the Atlantic side. We’re relying on the departing Canada high and Atlantic ridge really as a quasi-block. Bluewave described this well. We just have to hope the models are underselling the speed of the southern stream because that phase is the ballgame for 90% of us. And unfortunately the Euro’s been slowing that down over the last few runs too. It’s found ways to still bury us with late shifts but we need that trend to stop/reverse. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Trends so far (excluding the NAM) this morning should be considered as a very viable option as far as an eventual outcome. I'm fully expecting the EURO to go eastward at least somewhat with 12Z cycle. I think with the upper feature onshore out west and included in 12Z cycle we should start seeing models come together. I think the 12Z runs pending the EURO are starting to put the writing on the wall. Not an ultimate final solution but trending toward one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Didn't that storm have blocking though? I mean it wasn't moving that fast IIRC.... it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Please for the sake of everyone reading this forum and trying to spend time here and hang out and learn and kill time at work or whatever….think before you post. If youve declared the threat dead, please just move on. You arent here to convince others to switch religions, once is enough. 6 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 We even lost the jma. Which was showing a storm since Saturday. I think its safe to say we see where this one is going. Happened all year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: We even lost the jma. Which was showing a storm since Saturday. I think its safe to say we see where this one is going. Happened all year We still have alot more runs to go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Media is starting to mention a huge snowstorm for Saturday. Now people definitely think it's on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Media is starting to mention a huge snowstorm for Saturday. Now people definitely think it's on the way. The media is always behind the curve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: We still have alot more runs to go. I know that. Just not good trends that's all. Do u have the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Media is starting to mention a huge snowstorm for Saturday. Now people definitely think it's on the way. machines are ahead of humans some times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Media is starting to mention a huge snowstorm for Saturday. Now people definitely think it's on the way. Late to the party as always. What gets me is we can all see that it's been a crap setup all winter but we still want to believe we can thread the needle somehow, because ya know, it's always possible. I'm still hoping to get something outta this, 4-8 would still be a win in my book. But the way some here talk, it looks like nothing at all is on the table for lots of us. Can't say that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The importance of blocking from NYC and southward cannot be overstated. An AO-/PNA+ was present for the following % of 10” or greater snowstorms during the January 15-February 15 period (1950-2021): Boston: 42% (n=19) New York City: 71% (n=17) Philadelphia: 90% (n=10) 2 or more of those cities: 81% (n=16) All 3 of those cities: 86% (n=7). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 This could still go either way looking at the 12z runs. It really doesn't take much to go from big storm to nothing or vice versa. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Ukie looks good for bermuda 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Doorman said: Your gravy for now VW https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr500.shtml Slight negative title should lead to earlier capture and more tucked for us in western NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The importance of blocking from NYC and southward cannot be overstated. An AO-/PNA+ was present for the following % of 10” or greater snowstorms during the January 15-February 15 period (1950-2021): Boston: 42% (n=19) New York City: 71% (n=17) Philadelphia: 90% (n=10) 2 or more of those cities: 81% (n=16) All 3 of those cities: 86% (n=7). So Boston doesn't need it as much....further north and east. Which is why it is generally snowier there. And my BIL in ME, forget it. Snows at the drop of a hat. Even there it hasn't been very snowy this year though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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