kat5hurricane Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Not favoring any model over the other but what could lend a little more credence to the Euro is that it's been pretty steadfast with its solution over the last 3 days now? while the GFS has been jumping back and forth. The Ukie showing a whiff last night was concerning, we need that to trend significantly west today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: CMC east. any graphics ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 How can anyone give the euro any merrit?? It's been brutal all year. Gfs has schooled it an looks like its happening again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agreed, you can’t trust the NAM at 84 hrs. So far, the RGEM went east, the GFS went way east, the ICON didn’t look impressive up to 45hrs when it stopped, the 6z op Euro/EPS moved east. The RGEM moving east makes me think the CMC is about to do the same. If I had to guess, gun to my head, the Euro and EPS go east later The 6z Euro did not move east. The EPS did a bit though. Agreed in general though. Not good trends overall outside of the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agreed, you can’t trust the NAM at 84 hrs. So far, the RGEM went east, the GFS went way east, the ICON didn’t look impressive up to 45hrs when it stopped, the 6z op Euro/EPS moved east. The RGEM moving east makes me think the CMC is about to do the same. If I had to guess, gun to my head, the Euro and EPS go east later Started running again…..the ICON is GFS like… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Ukie is east Hearing the cmc is also east Not a good 12z suite at all Be back later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: How can anyone give the euro any merrit?? It's been brutal all year. Gfs has schooled it an looks like its happening again Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: How can anyone give the euro any merrit?? It's been brutal all year. Gfs has schooled it an looks like its happening again I don't care if it's the best model in the world, if it is alone it can't be relied on. I'm reading here the trends are all east. By this juncture it is unlikely there are massive swings west. So let's see if we can get anything at all out of this or if this has been another massive waste of our time. Speaking for north central NJ and west here, heck even the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I think onto the Canadian first - if that goes east forgetaboutit........ It did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: How can anyone give the euro any merrit?? It's been brutal all year. Gfs has schooled it an looks like its happening again This 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: I don't care if it's the best model in the world, if it is alone it can't be relied on. I'm reading here the trends are all east. By this juncture it is unlikely there are massive swings west. So let's see if we can get anything at all out of this or if this has been another massive waste of our time. Speaking for north central NJ and west here, heck even the city. Euro has done atrocious this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I think onto the Canadian first - if that goes east forgetaboutit........ The CMC went east, I knew when I saw the RGEM it would. The Euro is probably next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 So much hype building, I see plows everywhere and we might not get anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Maybe coastal areas get 6-8" but nothing like the euro/nam showing. I expect an east move coming up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: So much hype building, I see plows everywhere and we might not get anything. Because the models suck They shouldnt go out past 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I would like think out on LI you have a little more time with this, for NYC and def anywhere west of NYC need to see solid changes by 0Z tonight if you want a big storm. Honestly I'm almost fine with a powdery 6 inches or so at this point. Verbatim the GFS starts ramping amounts up east of me from where it's like 4-5" in MBY to 8-10" over the forks. I think the forks are in for at least a very solid event. Me hopefully a decent event near the Nassau border and west of NYC sweating these changes. But it's annoying how it keeps leaving the energy behind and delaying the phase. Hard to see how it can end well for most of us if that happens. Maybe it's a bias at play but the Euro/NAM also notoriously overamp these. It's all about how fast and fully the streams phase. Delayed/late phase and we're dealing with what I described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs has done this so many times in the past with big coastal storms. The Euro usually does well in these situations. Let's see if the Euro holds or folds. How did the GFS do with the January 2016 blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, TriPol said: How did the GFS do with the January 2016 blizzard? It was late to the party like every model except for the SREF and Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 FWIW the 12z ICON is still a good hit for the area with 5-10” along and S and E of I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie is east Hearing the cmc is also east Not a good 12z suite at all Be back later The Ukie ran already? Anyway, if this is the case, I'd bet anything that the Euro shifts east as well which will be frustrating since it's been the only model that has been consistent throughout most of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Sometimes having too many cooks in the kitchen is not a good thing. Even worse having all those cooks in the kitchen making for for 4+ days later. We want models to go out further yet their predictive power goes down exponentially the further out they go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Because the models suck They shouldnt go out past 84 hours its easy not to look at past 84 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It did Like I said earlier for me here in NJ this might be in the same ballpark as the storm earlier in the month where I got close to 4 inches........anyone who has been advertising a major storm for NYC on TV or radio took a big chance ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: The Ukie ran already? Anyway, if this is the case, I'd bet anything that the Euro shifts east as well which will be frustrating since it's been the only model that has been consistent throughout most of this. I am willing to bet my life Euro will cave if not at 12z than 00z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Like I said earlier for me here in NJ this might be in the same ballpark as the storm earlier in the month where I got close to 4 inches........anyone who has been advertising a major storm for NYC on TV or radio took a big chance ......... Not really All the models did show a huge storm at one point. Remember 18z Saturday on the gfs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, NEG NAO said: Like I said earlier for me here in NJ this might be in the same ballpark as the storm earlier in the month where I got close to 4 inches........anyone who has been advertising a major storm for NYC on TV or radio took a big chance ......... 4 inches this year is a major storm for us..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 There's time for recovery later today/tonight/tomorrow but have to admit GFS/CMC aren't what we wanted at 12z. Progressive late/delayed phase will likely be a meh outcome for those of us west of Riverhead or New Haven CT. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It's funny how the CMC and GFS first had this storm a huge snowstorm for the area and quickly trended weaker and east with it and them the Euro picked it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just goes to show the importance of Atlantic blocking. It slows everything down allowing shortwaves to phase at the right moment. If you don't have that then a very strong PNA like Feb 2006 can help. The PNA this time isn't as strong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I think we all need to take a deep breathe and relax everything is still on the table. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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