USCG RS Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: It did much better with phasing in the southern stream. And that happens early in the run. The ridge position to me out west also tells me that it has room to come west. It’s really all about how progressive the trough is. The good phase puts a stop to it and bombs the low in a perfect spot. Yeah, that to me is the caveat here: where does it bomb out? Late and it scoots NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12z RGEM is slightly east of 6z. Still a good storm for the Jersey shore and out on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I will remind old timers about the EE rule. When the Euro and ETA were in sync, it was deadly. For the youngins and as a reminder, the ETA is now the NAM. DT is the author of the EE rule, and also the weekend rule, which was uncanny for a long time how often they both worked out. Voodoo? Maybe.... Beat me to it. EE rule in effect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, Torch said: So far every guidance since Monday has been consistent with the trend towards this weekend. lock Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 17 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: I know we shouldn't put our trust in these maps this far out but this output is based on 10:1 ratio's, I am assuming this will be higher than that due to how cold the airmass is. No? 12-1 14-1 ratio is not a stretch -ATM baroclinic instability 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Yeah, Rgem a tick more progressive than 06z. More interested in what the gfs does though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Short range models shouldn't be taken seriously yet. Don't get too happy yet about the Nam. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Can't trust either the RGEM or NAM yet. Looking forward to hopefully an improvement on the GFS. Doesn't have to show a bomb quite yet but definitely want an improvement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Short range models shouldn't be taken seriously yet. Don't get too happy yet about the Nam. And doesn't the NAM tend to overstate QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, larrye said: And doesn't the NAM tend to overstate QPF? Yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 12z RGEM is slightly east of 6z. Still a good storm for the Jersey shore and out on LI. About a 6 inch storm for the NYC area on the RGEM, far less than NAM. Still a little early to take models like RGEM and NAM very seriously though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The biggest 12z GFS run of our lives coming up. I got the snow blower on my right and the baseball bat on my left for the outcome. In all seriousness you want to see the gfs tend towards the nam and euro here even if its slight improvements. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Yes it does This won't be a situation where the QPF is overdone. The moisture coming into this storm will be absurd if the capture/partial stall really does happen. I definitely see 30" happening somewhere in a scenario like that. Of course if it's progressive and doesn't happen that'll be overstated. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, larrye said: And doesn't the NAM tend to overstate QPF? 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yes it does Start and stop times are what will impact accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobjohnsonforthehall Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Can't trust either the RGEM or NAM yet. Looking forward to hopefully an improvement on the GFS. Doesn't have to show a bomb quite yet but definitely want an improvement. Perhaps. But the NAM is in a good range for what happens 12 hours+ before the storm reaches our area. Those Dynamics are crucial to what happens in our area and the NAM showed them to be very favorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 If you're on the coast expecting 14:1 ratios with that wind you're going to be disappointed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: If you're on the coast expecting 14:1 ratios with that wind you're going to be disappointed. Temps are going to be really cold. Maybe not 14:1 but 12:1 is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nobody should be thinking about accumulations at all until we can figure out the evolution of this thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: If you're on the coast expecting 14:1 ratios with that wind you're going to be disappointed. I agree but remember the Boxing Day storm had good ratios and very strong winds but still managed to pile up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, weathermedic said: I agree but remember the Boxing Day storm had good ratios and very strong winds but still managed to pile up. I wasn't here for the January 2016 blizzard, but the Boxing Day Blizzard was amazing. One of my favorite all-time storms. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Temps are going to be really cold. Maybe not 14:1 but 12:1 is a possibility. I think it'll be closer to 10:1 due to very strong winds...if you're further inland with more frictional impacts ratios would be higher. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Looks like we are moving somewhat closer to a consensus of a 6-12 type event in the immediate metro area. KU still possible but would say lower probability, a total whiff is definitely still possible too but also lower probability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodsworth Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 moved to Philly burbs from Los Angeles two months before Winter Storm Jonas. Loved it. Been waiting ever since for another whopper. It's been excruciating! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The low was virtually in the same position on the rgem with maybe a slight tick east, it's just that the precip was more expansive on the 6z. Just like with the Nam, take with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Dodsworth said: moved to Philly burbs from Los Angeles two months before Winter Storm Jonas. Loved it. Been waiting ever since for another whopper. It's been excruciating! Meh, Jonas was in it for the money, not the science. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, weathermedic said: I agree but remember the Boxing Day storm had good ratios and very strong winds but still managed to pile up. I remember boxing day as a dry sandy snow. Not the best ratios iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 16 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This won't be a situation where the QPF is overdone. The moisture coming into this storm will be absurd if the capture/partial stall really does happen. I definitely see 30" happening somewhere in a scenario like that. Of course if it's progressive and doesn't happen that'll be overstated. The question is where? To my "novice" eye, it looks way out east on LI or in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, weathermedic said: I agree but remember the Boxing Day storm had good ratios and very strong winds but still managed to pile up. The impact of wind on ratios is real. We had 12" of sand on Boxing Day. I'll have to go check my records, but the snow:water ratio was less than 10:1. Of course we were east of the killer deform, but the winds were gusting frequently 50 - 60+ here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Gfs leaving more energy behind, not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Gfs is holding back more energy. This should be more east. It's hard to take the Euro seriously here since it has no support except for the Long range Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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