January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, tomcatct said:

Plus they know people will flood to home depot and Lowes...funny how so many people seem to lose last years snow shovel

They break, as do snowblowers. Things are made like junk today. I bought two snow shovels last year and they have already started falling apart; A new craftsman needed a new carbuerator when it was brand new. Used twice last year, it now needs another new carbuerator. Thankfully I have a better machine and an electric toro for backup. 

[tomcatct]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

They break, as do snowblowers. Things are made like junk today. I bought two snow shovels last year and they have already started falling apart; A new craftsman needed a new carbuerator when it was brand new. Used twice last year, it now needs another new carbuerator. Thankfully I have a better machine and an electric toro for backup. 

Yeah..all this made in China crap

[jr461]

15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Any mention of accumulating snow in my parts results in increased supermarket sales. At 12+ it is panic.

Very old school reactions but they still pervade.  I grew up in Queens in the 60s-70s and that borough was habitually overlooked in terms of plowing so in a big storm you could literally be snowed in (from a driving perspective and we were too far to walk to anything).  Most people also just had 2 wheel drive cars so without plowing you had to wait.  We really did have to prepare in advance.

Now, however, except for the most historical of outcomes, everywhere gets plowed out in a day and everything is back to normal so the stocking up on French toast ingredients days in advance has become quite archaic. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

It was actually a very slight tick west. Just want to see it continue to hold serve and get everything else to come around. That was great to see. 

Oh for sure. As soon as you see that 500mnb map you know we get buried. We have that look or close to that look and we're in for a monster.  

[Volcanic Winter]

The Euro has me feeling weak in the knees. Have to continue to be somewhat skeptical until the GFS adjusts west again. 

The storm as modeled for my area (Tom's River, work in Union) would be one of the all time biggest snowfalls. Insane. Even 75% of these latest totals would be simply mad (ticking down for wind or missed banding etc). 

But there's precedent for the Euro spitting out ludicrous results only to correct shortly before showtime, right? Hoping this isn't one of those times, but again just trying to stay tempered while there's still divergence between Euro and GFS. 

[EastonSN+]

22 minutes ago, wxman said:

2' with 30" lollies, LOL!!

Forky stated someone was getting 30.

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Use the 10-1 maps for something like this. There isn’t going to be 40” snow in Toms River. 

Kuchera #'s are usually way over-done

[Volcanic Winter]

QPF is really the best thing to look at, or?

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, jr461 said:

Very old school reactions but they still pervade.  I grew up in Queens in the 60s-70s and that borough was habitually overlooked in terms of plowing so in a big storm you could literally be snowed in (from a driving perspective and we were too far to walk to anything).  Most people also just had 2 wheel drive cars so without plowing you had to wait.  We really did have to prepare in advance.

Now, however, except for the most historical of outcomes, everywhere gets plowed out in a day and everything is back to normal so the stocking up on French toast ingredients days in advance has become quite archaic. 

Still happens here for every storm-I don't get it-we are usually plowed out within hours

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Still happens here for every storm-I don't get it-we are usually plowed out within hours

And alot of stores are close by

I don't get the panic

[MJO812]

Eps ticked east

Still a solid snowstorm 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Eps ticked east

Still a solid snowstorm 

Oh man that was deflating.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Eps ticked east

Still a solid snowstorm 

Hopefully this is the stage where we can start taking the Op more seriously vs the EPS. Still I have to think the 6z is overdone somewhat unless other models make a jump west at 12z.

[Volcanic Winter]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

And alot of stores are close by

I don't get the panic

Think of it in the context of those with frail or elderly parents, or those with loved ones otherwise reliant on care. Not everyone is fully self reliant and a major storm can be a difficult challenge.  Yes plowing happens quick these days but in a storm that's not riding 32 degrees the roads can definitely stay very messy until it warms. Not as much for those in the city, but in general combined with the massive population of the area and you get the NJ special snow panic frenzy. 

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

And alot of stores are close by

I don't get the panic

If anything close to this were to happen or if the media starts throwing around the numbers we just saw I would not want to even consider the lines that will be forming at the grocery stores near you.  The pre-existing supply chain issues would be an additional complication.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

34 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

That would be a storm for the ages. That was forky's quote just before Jan 2016. I will wait for his pronouncement....FWIW I don't believe this will be the solution. If it is, people will be freaking out, and justifiably so ( I'm talking about the normal snow fearing public here ). In fact, they may be already. Anyone been to the market yet?

There's been 7 storms in the last 18 years of 17.4 inches or greater in NYC alone.

Draw a circle 40 miles outside the city limits and it doubles. If people aren't use to big storms by now they either haven't lived here long, or they are not paying attention, or they just have short memories.

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps ticked east

Still a solid snowstorm 

Would u happen to have the 0z for comparison?

[kat5hurricane]

Sheesh, the Euro is going all in. It's pretty much on its own sending the real big totals NYC and west so unless the other models trend towards it today (they went the wrong way last night), I tend to think that it's out to lunch based on its performance as of late. It's been consistent though, I'll say that much.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Would u happen to have the 0z for comparison?

 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Oh man that was deflating.

Remember ratios will be more than 10:1.

There are several members skewing this mean .

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

Thanks. Yeah that's a decent east shift.

 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

If anything close to this were to happen or if the media starts throwing around the numbers we just saw I would not want to even consider the lines that will be forming at the grocery stores near you.  The pre-existing supply chain issues would be an additional complication.

This would be worse because alot of stores have empty shelves right now. 

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

This would be worse because alot of stores have empty shelves right now. 

Exactly.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Remember ratios will be more than 10:1.

There are several members skewing this mean .

at this point at least for me I expect this to be in the same ballpark as the early January storm - its a fast mover - guidance is favoring areas east of NYC - I got between 3 -4 inches in the January storm and to Metsfan I already know about the ratio potential.........

[nightknights]

44 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Use the 10-1 maps for something like this. There isn’t going to be 40” snow in Toms River. 

Their not they are getting 39.1"  

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, nightknights said:

Their not they are getting 39.1"  

No way

[EasternLI]

Still a lot of spread for my liking. But you can see a lot of them show something similar to the op. With different placements. Hopefully we can narrow this down more through the day in a favorable direction. 

[USCG RS]

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Oh for sure. As soon as you see that 500mnb map you know we get buried. We have that look or close to that look and we're in for a monster.  

Exactly. I wrote this elsewhere.. But feel it would make sense here as well.. 

 

Folks, let's have a chat about why surface depictions of storms are not really what to look for in models. 

For reference anything with h/H in it is designating height in mb. For example, h925 is 925 mb where as h85/7/5 is 850mb/700mb/ and 500mb respectively. 

The governing physics of weather is such that the upper levels (h925 and above) are what govern sensible weather (ie what precip falls, how much, winds, etc). 

For winds, you want to look at h925. The winds here are what can mix down. Normally you take a 10-15% reduction, however, that is not always a hard and fast rule. 

For precip type, a good rule of thumb is to look at h85 and h925. If h85 is below freezing, there's a good chance the precip is frozen, and likely snow (there are exceptions when there are warm pockets above h85). If it is above freezing, it is likely liquid. Now if h85 is above freezing and h925 is close to freezing or below, there is a good chance you are looking at freezing rain. If h85 and h925 are above freezing, most likely it is plain rain. The exception here is if you have a very shallow yet very cold surface layer and/or the ground has been frozen for a good period of time (ie a cold spell for a few days) and sfc temps are just at or very slightly above freezing. Usually lighter precip helps to aid this exception as well. 

For precip rates, you want to look at H7. H7 will show you where the model thinks the best forcing is going to be as well as the available energy for precip. H7 is about frontogenic forcing. 

Lastly, let's look at H5. I won't go into h3/250 as that is beyond the scope of this post. So for H5, this is where you look for phases and energies moving across the continent. So, the 0z GFS slipped east about 75 miles. If you just look at that, well.. Then to you all hope is lost. Yet if you look up at H5, you see that one of the energies phased slightly early, causing a slightly late capture of another energy, ie, phasing late. This allowed the surface low pressure to slip east. However, when you look through the energies at H5, you quickly begin to realize that a less than 3 hour difference in any one of the energies - and consequential phasing - would have changed the outcome (Ala 6z Euro). I'm not going to go too deep into H5 energies as if you have been following along, you would have seen this explained in here before. If you have not been, follow along from here and look out for what this post has pointed out. To go into h5 energies and orientations would be too long a post and likely confusing as each phase and energy act differently depending on location, speed, strength, etc. It's best to just observe for this moving foreward.

One last thing regarding upper levels. For a coastal storm (or in the Midwest when a storm explodes and runs up from the gulf), you want to be NW of the various closing off of lows at the upper levels. When low pressure systems develop, they develop from SE (at the sfc) to NW (through H5). This diagonal development with regard to height in the atmosphere allows each low pressure center at each level to vent (ie expel air up and outward so that the pressure can fall. Remember, in layman's terms, pressure is essentially a measure of how much air is in any given space at any given time). So as you always want to be NW of the sfc low pressure for frozen precip, you want to be NW of H85 for snow and NW of H7 for the best snowfall rates. When H7 moves directly over or West your area, this is when you can dry slot and when h85 moves over or west of your area, you have h85 temps which shoot above freezing and this changes your snow to other types of precip (remember we talked about upper levels temps earlier). 

These are just some general rules to keep in mind with these types of storms and why the surface depictions on models are really the laziest type of forecasting and produces poor forecasting skills and verification. 

It is also why I am not writing this storm off at all. 

Last note - the Euro with its resolution tends to pick up on these rules the best. This is why it used to be the gold standard. 

 

[TJW014]

1 minute ago, nightknights said:

Their not they are getting 39.1"  

I doubt we even get 10" 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Exactly. I wrote this elsewhere.. But feel it would make sense here as well.. 

 

Folks, let's have a chat about why surface depictions of storms are not really what to look for in models. 

For reference anything with h/H in it is designating height in mb. For example, h925 is 925 mb where as h85/7/5 is 850mb/700mb/ and 500mb respectively. 

The governing physics of weather is such that the upper levels (h925 and above) are what govern sensible weather (ie what precip falls, how much, winds, etc). 

For winds, you want to look at h925. The winds here are what can mix down. Normally you take a 10-15% reduction, however, that is not always a hard and fast rule. 

For precip type, a good rule of thumb is to look at h85 and h925. If h85 is below freezing, there's a good chance the precip is frozen, and likely snow (there are exceptions when there are warm pockets above h85). If it is above freezing, it is likely liquid. Now if h85 is above freezing and h925 is close to freezing or below, there is a good chance you are looking at freezing rain. If h85 and h925 are above freezing, most likely it is plain rain. The exception here is if you have a very shallow yet very cold surface layer and/or the ground has been frozen for a good period of time (ie a cold spell for a few days) and sfc temps are just at or very slightly above freezing. Usually lighter precip helps to aid this exception as well. 

For precip rates, you want to look at H7. H7 will show you where the model thinks the best forcing is going to be as well as the available energy for precip. H7 is about frontogenic forcing. 

Lastly, let's look at H5. I won't go into h3/250 as that is beyond the scope of this post. So for H5, this is where you look for phases and energies moving across the continent. So, the 0z GFS slipped east about 75 miles. If you just look at that, well.. Then to you all hope is lost. Yet if you look up at H5, you see that one of the energies phased slightly early, causing a slightly late capture of another energy, ie, phasing late. This allowed the surface low pressure to slip east. However, when you look through the energies at H5, you quickly begin to realize that a less than 3 hour difference in any one of the energies - and consequential phasing - would have changed the outcome (Ala 6z Euro). I'm not going to go too deep into H5 energies as if you have been following along, you would have seen this explained in here before. If you have not been, follow along from here and look out for what this post has pointed out. To go into h5 energies and orientations would be too long a post and likely confusing as each phase and energy act differently depending on location, speed, strength, etc. It's best to just observe for this moving foreward.

One last thing regarding upper levels. For a coastal storm (or in the Midwest when a storm explodes and runs up from the gulf), you want to be NW of the various closing off of lows at the upper levels. When low pressure systems develop, they develop from SE (at the sfc) to NW (through H5). This diagonal development with regard to height in the atmosphere allows each low pressure center at each level to vent (ie expel air up and outward so that the pressure can fall. Remember, in layman's terms, pressure is essentially a measure of how much air is in any given space at any given time). So as you always want to be NW of the sfc low pressure for frozen precip, you want to be NW of H85 for snow and NW of H7 for the best snowfall rates. When H7 moves directly over or West your area, this is when you can dry slot and when h85 moves over or west of your area, you have h85 temps which shoot above freezing and this changes your snow to other types of precip (remember we talked about upper levels temps earlier). 

These are just some general rules to keep in mind with these types of storms and why the surface depictions on models are really the laziest type of forecasting and produces poor forecasting skills and verification. 

It is also why I am not writing this storm off at all. 

Last note - the Euro with its resolution tends to pick up on these rules the best. This is why it used to be the gold standard. 

 

so the EURO has lost these qualities? - also what is your prediction for this storm using all the data parameters you mentioned to forecast by ?