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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Aren't we sort of thinking the Euro is suspect and unreliable? I'm kinda discounting it; isn't it alone at this point? Serious question, not being a troll. Just got up.

06z GFS isn't really too far off from this. It's definitely west of last night and similarly powerful, it just needs a little bit and it starts to back up the euro. 

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6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I'm just west of SI and these kinds of setups do make a big difference; it's unlikely we see nothing at all, but will probably end up with a smaller event of 3-6 or 4-8,but in a year like this we'll have to be happy with it. A few miles south of me in Monmouth will also make a big difference. I'm too far north and west for these storms, too far south and east for the interior storms. Way it is here.

Impossible to say right now, we still have over a full day to nail it down. We just have to hope as much energy phases into the developing storm as early as possible. Others have pointed out that the ridge east of these is often under modeled at this stage which would be good as well and force it closer to the coast. 

I don’t think anyone is out of it completely but well N&W has always had the most to need right out of anyone. 

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8 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

6z euro at 90 (still snowing):

image.thumb.png.c7155a8d4bd4a3f8742d734440f7781b.png

I wouldn’t go with Kuchera maps but to me it looks about the same as 0z if not a little better? 10-1 map was well over a foot from NYC east, 20”+ from roughly me on east. Lows close off and go boom in a great spot which would send heavy snow well to the west. 

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6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Aren't we sort of thinking the Euro is suspect and unreliable? I'm kinda discounting it; isn't it alone at this point? Serious question, not being a troll. Just got up.

It’s on the high end of potential solutions.  We will just have to watch future runs of this and the other models.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I wouldn’t go with Kuchera maps but to me it looks about the same as 0z if not a little better? 10-1 map was well over a foot from NYC east, 20”+ from roughly me on east. Lows close off and go boom in a great spot which would send heavy snow well to the west. 

Its markedly better and it's still snowing hard with hours to go at hour 90. 

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Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

6 to 33 inches in the space of 100 miles :blink:

That would be a storm for the ages. That was forky's quote just before Jan 2016. I will wait for his pronouncement....FWIW I don't believe this will be the solution. If it is, people will be freaking out, and justifiably so ( I'm talking about the normal snow fearing public here ). In fact, they may be already. Anyone been to the market yet?

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

That would be a storm for the ages. That was forky's quote just before Jan 2016. I will wait for his pronouncement....FWIW I don't believe this will be the solution. If it is, people will be freaking out, and justifiably so ( I'm talking about the normal snow fearing public here ). In fact, they may be already. Anyone been to the market yet?

The public starts going crazy when the local news puts out 12+ inch snow maps. They haven’t yet. 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yeah, really hope it has a clue here. Even if you adjust it 50 miles east it would still be a beast for NYC area and LI/CT/Jersey shore. Looks like if anything it came west from 0z with the banding. 

It was actually a very slight tick west. Just want to see it continue to hold serve and get everything else to come around. That was great to see. 

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