HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Jt17 said: That's a sound strategy 5 days and more, but I think starting now it's pretty fun to follow along intently. Although, if you care about your loved ones it's probably not the healthiest way to go about it. Oh sure this storm I'm buying in at this point and following intently, all in, theres enough evidence to buy in at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Ah feels like the old days in here. Joy, disappointment, anxiety. Hanging on to every model run. Love it. We stress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I know everybody's hopes were up for the GFS to tick west, so when it didn't it was disappointing. That being said, it was really just a minor wobble east. If it jumped significantly east, that would be cause for alarm, but for now I would treat it as a nothingburger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Overall all global - EC, GFS, CMC, UK, and even JMA and ICON have been pretty consistent for the past few cycles... especially considering the range. There have not been wild changes and there's even a general inter-model consensus on trof amplitude and orientation as well as location and strength of surface features. Minor differences obviously have huge implications for surface weather, but this consistency is a marked improvement from years past. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah you're right about that. The GFS/GEFS does have a progressive bias which matters significantly when the goalposts are so narrow. Big Euro run coming. It just needs to hold. The Euro going east tonight would be concerning, but I think tomorrow’s runs are more telling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Nothing less here. Always a nailbiter on the W side of these. I mean this is seeming more and more like Boston's storm but it doesn't mean NYC can't get hammered too but we are on the nailbiter side of it where as Boston is pretty much locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 There's a 1012 mb low in south central NM. Nothing but E-NE winds ahead of it. That is probably a good sign. And wasn't the NAM the best model for the last storm that ended up going a lot further west than many other models were saying it would? Bet the Euro comes in with another rocking solution tonight. That warm Atlantic water is just sitting there waiting for its time to do battle. It argues for a west solution, tuck, and stall potential. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s15/sfcmap.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Looks like the Gefs are just about the same as the 18Z run, however there is a good chunk to the south and west at very low central pressure so the GFS runs may go further west in the future it’s way too early to tell. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: I mean this is seeming more and more like Boston's storm but it doesn't mean NYC can't get hammered too but we are on the nailbiter side of it where as Boston is pretty much locked in. Yes, as always with this type of system. Sometimes they work out like 1/4/18, sometimes they don't like 1/27/15 (Suffolk County was rocked). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I don't think it matters too much whether the EC shifts one way or the other tonight as long as the changes are relatively minor. I'd guess a shift east is slightly more likely than west just based on it being on the western edge of consensus, but who knows. Either way, the outcome won't be decided tonight. All of the 0z runs are close enough where modest changes could lead to a widespread major snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 The ukie is brutal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Normally I would think the GFS is just doing its normal waffling but it has done really well this season. It also highlights what a thread the needle storm this really is. All it takes is that sw hanging back a little longer and we get almost nothing. Well, obviously that's the risk but it's not "all she wrote" because of one GFS run that barely budged 3 days before the event. However, if the Euro takes a noticeable shift east tonight, it's trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's great. If the models agree on this then the GFS becomes an outlier. 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Canadian not a huge change to me, went a little west. Goes just inside the B/M and runs into the outer Cape. Would be a good hit for just about everyone, biggie east of NYC. I'm not that concerned about the GFS at this point. It's been pretty inconsistent overall. It's significant for N and W peeps. It was further west and N and W precip was more robust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 18Z NavGEM is a narrow miss of a big hit...so we got that going for us which is nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: The ukie is brutal. Not a flake for NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: How does it compare to the last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Not a flake for NYC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The UK is far enough east that it almost fringes Boston. Not quite though. H5 still looked salvageable for us. No precipitation west of NYC. Totally plausible... just to keep us from getting greedy with high expectations. From here we need to avoid any major shifts or seeing multiple runs in a row shift east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: The ukie is brutal. It reverts back to before the models slowed this storm down yesterday. The old pattern and she takes off like a rocket. A relatively shorter period of snow with significantly lower amounts and western sections barely get anything. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Trends are not our friends. Famine taking the lead over feast. Oh the winter of ‘22 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Trends are not our friends. Famine taking the lead over feast. Oh the winter of ‘22 Uh ? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It's amazing how the emotions are with winter storms. We have gone through this many times. It's a beautiful thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: It's amazing how the emotions are with winter storms. We have gone through this many times. It's a beautiful thing If people weren't ridiculous I wouldn't have this job. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: It's amazing how the emotions are with winter storms. We have gone through this many times. It's a beautiful thing Beautiful until she’s guts you! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Yikes! Euro on it’s own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Trends are not our friends. Famine taking the lead over feast. Oh the winter of ‘22 There is no real trend. None of the models significantly changed tonight from how they were before. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: There is no real trend. None of the models significantly changed tonight from how they were before. Exactly. People need to stop freaking out one way or the other. It's Tuesday and we're talking about a storm that is 72 hours off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Yikes! Euro on it’s own. No 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Lol so many dumb comments. Today Canadian trended slightly back West, Euro trended slightly west with a bomb solution supported by a very confident ensemble and the NAM, GFS slightly trended WEST a bit today from where it was last night (though people can't remember 1 run to the next so they think it didn't) and the UKIE has been OTS nearly every run. That's where we're at you weirdos. Nothing really happened except we've gotten more evidence that a powerful storm with serious potential for our area is developing. 4 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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