MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: All she wrote?? Lol it wasnt even a drastic shift It wasn't but the precip was skimpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: A miss east was always the risk. You said it's over Dude it's Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodsworth Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 why is the gfs given more credence than any other model? Just curious. No, I don't know anything. Been following the "storm" on here for a couple days and notice that what the GFS spits out seems like its more important to the board than the Euro or Canadian or NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: A miss east was always the risk. It's still over 3 day away, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 0z: 18z: forget the precip field depiction for now - the new run is 2 mb deeper and a very small amount east, it's pretty negligible changes which is normal 3.5-4 days out from a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Gonna ask a couple tough questions: 1) Lot of people here have been saying the GFS has been outperforming the Euro on our snow threats this January; why would this be different? Non-rhetorical or pointed, I'm genuinely asking if this is a different case. 2) I hear a lot of "the Euro normally overamps," so why would this be different considering it's the same situation we're staring down (the Euro looking strong and aggressive, the GFS weaker and OTS). Just playing devil's advocate and trying to broaden my knowledge. I want to latch onto the Euro and snuggle it in bed with me here shortly (if I can even sleep), but I'm getting that lump in my throat I had several years ago during The Storm That Shall Not Be Named where I sat looking at my radar and nearly punted my phone out the window. Not an equivalent circumstance, of course - as is probably best they've been very conservative in hyping this and we're much further out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: It wasn't but the precip was skimpy. That’s what I noticed. It goes to around the BM but unlike the Euro/NAM, develops late. We’ll just have to keep tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Dodsworth said: why is the gfs given more credence than any other model? Just curious. No, I don't know anything. Been following the "storm" on here for a couple days and notice that what the GFS spits out seems like its more important to the board than the Euro or Canadian or NAM. It's been a crap model for a long time but it got 1 or 2 things right this winter and people have recency bias I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Not surprised about the 0z GFS. Certainly worse, but not that far off. Doesn't change the outlook at all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You said it's over Dude it's Tuesday Same reasoning applies to the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yup that's all she wrote. I think the Euro is gonna lose this one. GFS has been killing it this season. Jesus, can you people stop with posts like this? It adds nothing to the discussion. The GFS has been doing the windshield wiper thing the last few days. Not saying it's wrong but it hasn't been that consistent either. The final solution is far from locked in at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 0Z CMC looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Canadian looks good. Waiting on better maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Jesus, can you people stop with posts like this? It adds nothing to the discussion. The GFS has been doing the windshield wiper thing the last few days. Not saying it's wrong but it hasn't been that consistent either. The final solution is far from locked in at this point. Normally I would think the GFS is just doing its normal waffling but it has done really well this season. It also highlights what a thread the needle storm this really is. All it takes is that sw hanging back a little longer and we get almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, larrye said: Same reasoning applies to the Euro. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 CMC looks like a big hit NYC east. Plenty close enough for big potential everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: That looks good to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Keeps hope alive for the Weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's great. If the models agree on this then the GFS becomes an outlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 So we canceling because gfs was east? But euro/nam/cmc look great? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Ugly GFS run. As I said last night the GFS is stubborn with these solutions. The other models will jump around a bit more. All we need for a snow forecast here is for the European model to hold where it is. If we see the European model start trending further out to the east our big snowstorm is in trouble. WX/PT 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Canadian not a huge change to me, went a little west. Goes just inside the B/M and runs into the outer Cape. Would be a good hit for just about everyone, biggie east of NYC. I'm not that concerned about the GFS at this point. It's been pretty inconsistent overall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Canadian not a huge change to me, went a little west. Goes just inside the B/M and runs into the outer Cape. Would be a good hit for just about everyone, biggie east of NYC. I'm not that concerned about the GFS at this point. It's been pretty inconsistent overall. Gefs just went more east. Gefs blew the storm 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Ah feels like the old days in here. Joy, disappointment, anxiety. Hanging on to every model run. Love it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Ah feels like the old days in here. Joy, disappointment, anxiety. Hanging on to every model run. Love it. Thats why i've worked on establishing rules to not get as caught up in every single run of every model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gefs just went more east. Gefs blew the storm 2 weeks ago. Yeah you're right about that. The GFS/GEFS does have a progressive bias which matters significantly when the goalposts are so narrow. Big Euro run coming. It just needs to hold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Ah feels like the old days in here. Joy, disappointment, anxiety. Hanging on to every model run. Love it. Nothing less here. Always a nailbiter on the W side of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Thats why i've worked on establishing rules to not get as caught up in every single run of every model. That's a sound strategy 5 days and more, but I think starting now it's pretty fun to follow along intently. Although, if you care about your loved ones it's probably not the healthiest way to go about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Yeah you're right about that. The GFS/GEFS does have a progressive bias which matters significantly when the goalposts are so narrow. Big Euro run coming. It just needs to hold. Can't speak for how that's gone this winter but I think that's been fixed in the last upgrade (last winter it was called the v16). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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