HVSnowLover Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, eduggs said: I would urge caution with the GEFS. For last weekends inland runner, the GFS was consistently the extreme western outlier against every single GEFS member for run after run at this range. The GEFS failed to signal the correct outcome in this case. I think we need to see the GFS and the Euro make meaningful shifts towards an impactful storm to have any confidence. Right now they are not close. Agree totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 23 minutes ago, eduggs said: I would urge caution with the GEFS. For last weekends inland runner, the GFS was consistently the extreme western outlier against every single GEFS member for run after run at this range. The GEFS failed to signal the correct outcome in this case. I think we need to see the GFS and the Euro make meaningful shifts towards an impactful storm to have any confidence. Right now they are not close. I would bet big money on it being wide right once again. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I would bet big money on it being wide right once again. agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: agree 100% Because of how this winter is going? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Because of how this winter is going? I agree with them. Flow is to progressive. Maybe good for new England. Dont see it for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Because of how this winter is going? because of what majority of guidance is currently advertising - so you must think we are getting a snowstorm next weekend......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 hours ago, eduggs said: A storm in early January has no bearing on the likelihood of a storm in February or March. Their probabilities are almost completely independent. Major snowstorms are always unlikely, by definition. But there's probably at least a 1 in 4 chance. And >4" snows can happen in almost any kind of background weather pattern. It's not that, it's purely statistical based on how rare double digit snowstorms are in a hostile pattern. And where I live double digit snowstorms no longer happen in March. I would say that from now until the end of the season the chance of a 10 inch snowstorm are less than 10 percent. 6 inches? Maybe 25 percent 4-6 inch storms are a different beast altogether and can happen in any pattern. It's why I specifically referred to double digit snowstorms as being extremely unlikely, not the smaller ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Very strong signal from GEFS at a powerful storm. I think it's gonna be a near miss. Could be good for eastern New England though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Very strong signal from GEFS at a powerful storm. I think it's gonna be a near miss. Could be good for eastern New England though. Geps also This should be watched closely. Too early to make an assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: because of what majority of guidance is currently advertising - so you must think we are getting a snowstorm next weekend......... No I'm following the models along with others. Earthlight thinks we should watch this carefully because what the ensembles are showing. Can this miss ? Sure but it's way too early to say anything. All we can do is track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 39 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I agree with them. Flow is to progressive. Maybe good for new England. Dont see it for us Possible but way too early to say anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 It all comes down to the PNA. A good ridge will make the phase easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It's not that, it's purely statistical based on how rare double digit snowstorms are in a hostile pattern. And where I live double digit snowstorms no longer happen in March. I would say that from now until the end of the season the chance of a 10 inch snowstorm are less than 10 percent. 6 inches? Maybe 25 percent 4-6 inch storms are a different beast altogether and can happen in any pattern. It's why I specifically referred to double digit snowstorms as being extremely unlikely, not the smaller ones. We had an 18” storm only a few years ago in suffolk, march 2018. Did western Nassau get shafted in that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 18z eps just upped the ante 2 camps but the camps closer to the coast is really strong . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: 18z eps just upped the ante 2 camps but the camps closer to the coast is really strong . U got a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: U got a map? Got it from other forums. I will post stormvista maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: There are now a few tucked near the coast lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, EasternLI said: Thanks, definitely considerable lean west. Would like to see gfs or euro op show something soon tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 EPS made a significant jump towards a more amped solution. PNA ridging better, leading to more favorable momentum of the NS piece as well as a slower, deeper initial trough 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Anything from way ots to a crusher. I'll take that at this range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Will be interesting to see how this ensembles vs ops theory works for this one. This time the tables are reversed with ensembles more amplified. Personally, I'll take ensembles all day long at this range. However, yes, ops do need to come around soon as well. What's the sample size of this speculation? Is it just the one storm this year, or are there many other instances? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Even given the full 16 days, 1" total is not even at 100%: The same for 12": Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS made a significant jump towards a more amped solution. PNA ridging better, leading to more favorable momentum of the NS piece as well as a slower, deeper initial trough 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 @eduggs plenty of hits for you on the eps idv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The thing that bothers me the most about this weekend potential whatever is that Walt doesn't seem to be on board here in this thread in more ways than 1...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The thing that bothers me the most about this weekend potential whatever is that Walt doesn't seem to be on board here in this thread in more ways than 1...... We all were on board for the last two threads/threats and got nothing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Still way to early to tell. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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