eduggs Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 If the trof doesn't collapse and let this slide east, I don't think we've seen the upper echelon of modeled QPF potential with this. I definitely would not forecast an historic event at this point due to high failure potential, but I could see a few huge QPF bomb runs over the next few days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Looks great to me Yes it does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Still would like to see another model get on board. the euro been honking on a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 That's a sick look for coastal NJ to LI on the EPS. The QPF mean doesn't even capture the magnitude of impact. Probably half of those members are true blizzards for coastal regions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I would sure like some more support for a KU from other models... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 60-70mb surface pressure difference possible with this. That's solid. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Thats really high for an ensemble mean this far out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: 60-70mb surface pressure difference possible with this. That's solid. Do u think gfs will eventually cave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 13 minutes ago, eduggs said: If the trof doesn't collapse and let this slide east, I don't think we've seen the upper echelon of modeled QPF potential with this. I definitely would not forecast an historic event at this point due to high failure potential, but I could see a few huge QPF bomb runs over the next few days. One of my favorite things you've said and I consider you one of the more knowledgeable people in this forum! I haven't been this pumped up for a storm in a long time...probably since Boxing Day.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 21 minutes ago, eduggs said: If the trof doesn't collapse and let this slide east, I don't think we've seen the upper echelon of modeled QPF potential with this. I definitely would not forecast an historic event at this point due to high failure potential, but I could see a few huge QPF bomb runs over the next few days. The kuchera maps are already showing 30+ inches in the jackpot zone on a lot of runs. I know with the winds the kuchera maps be off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Would love to see the GFS be a little more amped and a little more tucked next run, but superstitiously I hope it doesn't look too good. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 22 minutes ago, eduggs said: If the trof doesn't collapse and let this slide east, I don't think we've seen the upper echelon of modeled QPF potential with this. I definitely would not forecast an historic event at this point due to high failure potential, but I could see a few huge QPF bomb runs over the next few days. I definitely agree. There’ll be a heck of an easterly moist feed into the storm from the warmer than average Atlantic. I can see there being a couple of death bands with a few inches per hour. Great upper level dynamics too as the lows close off to maximize lift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Would love to see the GFS be a little more amped and a little more tucked next run, but superstitiously I hope it doesn't look too good. Lol I think the GFS was getting there but the evolution of it was a little too progressive. Upper air lows close off a little too late for people west of Suffolk County. We want a slowed down amped evolution like the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Do u think gfs will eventually cave? We're all just pretty much guessing. If the GFS eventually shifts westward I expect it to shift slowly. It has exhibited relatively high run to run consistency at this range recently, even when it was an outlier. If I had to guess the eventual outcome I'd say offshore track east of the 18z Euro but with a mature upper level circulation and expansive northwestern precipitation shield (i.e. trof pretty far east but wrapped up). Good hit for LI, parts of CT, and maybe coastal NJ with NYC right on the edge of good snow. In other words I expect a late phase but an explosive tilting and deepening of the trof thereafter. Just a wild guess though. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, eduggs said: We're all just pretty much guessing. If the GFS eventually shifts westward I expect it to shift slowly. It has exhibited relatively high run to run consistency at this range recently, even when it was an outlier. If I had to guess the eventual outcome I'd say offshore track east of the 18z Euro but with a mature upper level circulation and expansive northwestern precipitation shield (i.e. trof pretty far east but wrapped up). Good hit for LI, parts of CT, and maybe coastal NJ with NYC right on the edge of good snow. In other words I expect a late phase but an explosive tilting and deepening of the trof thereafter. Just a wild guess though. Thanks for the insight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 18Z Euro individual members just as robust if not more robust than 12Z. Control is 20" NYC and mean is about 11". 29 of 51 member at or over 12". 12 members at or over 20". Signal from Euro remains strong. Control still targets SNJ with 20-25" at 10:1. Not locking into any one solution by any means but I'm impressed with persistence of op euro and ensembles up to this point. Some of the ensemble members are total crush jobs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, MANDA said: 18Z Euro individual members just as robust if not more robust than 12Z. Control is 20" NYC and mean is about 11". 29 of 51 member at or over 12". 12 members at or over 20". Signal from Euro remains strong. Control still targets SNJ with 20-25" at 10:1. Not locking into any one solution by any means but I'm impressed with persistence of op euro and ensembles up to this point. Some of the ensemble members are total crush jobs. Can you give a break down of central Jersey coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, MANDA said: 18Z Euro individual members just as robust if not more robust than 12Z. Control is 20" NYC and mean is about 11". 29 of 51 member at or over 12". 12 members at or over 20". Signal from Euro remains strong. Control still targets SNJ with 20-25" at 10:1. Not locking into any one solution by any means but I'm impressed with persistence of op euro and ensembles up to this point. Some of the ensemble members are total crush jobs. These write ups are awesome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Remember, Euro has a severe westward bias in these situations. GFS will lead the way here. Never forget, 60 hr lead time 1 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, MANDA said: 18Z Euro individual members just as robust if not more robust than 12Z. Control is 20" NYC and mean is about 11". 29 of 51 member at or over 12". 12 members at or over 20". Signal from Euro remains strong. Control still targets SNJ with 20-25" at 10:1. Not locking into any one solution by any means but I'm impressed with persistence of op euro and ensembles up to this point. Some of the ensemble members are total crush jobs. Big cluster showing a bomb south of Montauk. Those would probably be 20”+ for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Remember, Euro has a severe westward bias in these situations. GFS will lead the way here. Never forget, 60 hr lead time I’m hoping that’s been fixed to an extent but it’s always a concern. These big ocean storms often trend east a little at the end. I certainly hope the Euro’s not that overdone and we see other models trend toward it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Can you give a break down of central Jersey Lakehurst: Control is 25" and mean 13". 30 members at or over 12 27 members at or over 18" 11 members at or over 24" 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Remember, Euro has a severe westward bias in these situations. GFS will lead the way here. Never forget, 60 hr lead time I'm going to bump this post 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nam is ejecting all the energy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I'm going to bump this post Aware of past over amplifications. Not sure if that has been corrected or not. Only counter to that is there is at least moderate support from ensembles for very significant totals over parts of this forum. Exactly where is yet to be determined. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 To me this isn't really a Euro against the world situation. The CMC/GFS are like 50 miles off from bringing very significant snow to the metro area which is nothing at 4 days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Also from 18Z EPS the probabilities for 18"+ is 40-45% over east central NJ and 30% in and around NYC metro. Not shabby for 72-84 hours out. Again, strong signal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Another bomb incoming on the NAM i think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 21 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Remember, Euro has a severe westward bias in these situations. GFS will lead the way here. Never forget, 60 hr lead time Lol. You just can't help yourself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Also from 18Z EPS the probabilities for 18"+ is 40-45% over east central NJ and 30% in and around NYC metro. Not shabby for 72-84 hours out. Again, strong signal. You’re in my neck of the woods, right? MMU? I wonder how often we’re in accumulating snows. We shall see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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