January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter

[HeadInTheClouds]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

love that Atlantic ridge for this one.

 

I wrote western ridge but you are right, they are talking about downstream ridge. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

6+ inches for this storm 4 days out - what based on the EURO ?  No guarantee of 6 yet maybe 2 - 4 - higher amounts east

 

He also said that the GFS has been trending towards the Euro and that the orientation of the trough makes a closer to the coast track much more likely today than it was yesterday.

 

[weatherpruf]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Correct- it is ever evolving and changing  and its dynamic nature reflects our changing knowledge, if anyone has problems with that they should just look at what our level of technology was in the 80s compared to today lol.  Where do people think all that new technology came from?  Evolving science of course.  Science and technology are intrinsically linked.

Congrats on the science family-- I bet they'll do better than the previous generation did.  I think the best communicators in science were guys like Carl Sagan, who were both professional writers as well as scientists.  Carl Sagan was exceptional at communicating science, maybe the GOAT (along with Isaac Asimov, who I would also put up there with him.)

 

Sagan was a local boy, went to high school 5 mins from my location.....but he never talked about it much....Rahway HS ( yes the same one Milton Friedman went to ).

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Sagan was a local boy, went to high school 5 mins from my location.....but he never talked about it much....Rahway HS ( yes the same one Milton Friedman went to ).

Shows how you can get radically different people coming out of the same HS.  In the end I believe Sagan will be a much greater influence on the future of human society than Friedman.

 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Shows how you can get radically different people coming out of the same HS.  In the end I believe Sagan will be a much greater influence on the future of human society than Friedman.

 

That may very well be the case.

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

GFS is also 6+ inches from eastern parts of the city on east.

It would be irresponsible not to make people aware of the dangers.  Underpreparing is much more dangerous than overpreparing.

 

4 days out ???

[psv88]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

4 days out ???

Snow starts in 72 hours 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

4 days out ???

I feel your pain....been burned lots of times in these setups. Best we can say now is it looks like it will snow in our backyards. How much is an open question. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Snow starts in 72 hours 

you also tell people this still has a chance of not being high impact 72 hours out

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

He also said that the GFS has been trending towards the Euro and that the orientation of the trough makes a closer to the coast track much more likely today than it was yesterday.

 

I wouldn't put specific amounts out until tomorrow evening and just note "potential for a significant winter storm is increasing for Saturday" etc and that what we get is most likely to be snow. There'll probably be a big have/have-not difference like these storms normally give, NYC is in a tight spot like in most storms and hyping big amounts up can still backfire. There's still time tomorrow night or Thu or even Fri to discuss big amounts if models continue the trends. 

I remember the debacle around the 2/8/13 storm and the insane NAM run Channel 4 literally put up on screen, and the Armageddon like hype before 1/27/15.  It really does make people less likely to pay attention before one really does hit. 

That said I have no idea what Lee Goldberg or anyone else is saying since I don't watch them anyway.  

[psv88]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

you also tell people this still has a chance of not being high impact 72 hours out

City east there’s a low chance of not being high impact. City nw is up in the air

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

City east there’s a low chance of not being high impact. City nw is up in the air

also high impact is defined differently for the weekend accumulations won't start till late Friday night

[North and West]

That's exactly what I thought he meant.

The experts generally don’t like to use simple, straightforward language when communicating ideas. You see it in meteorology as well as Covid; my opinion is that they seem to want to sound as smart as possible to their peers, rather than their audience, who then get lost and tune them out, leading said experts to be annoyed when they’re not listened to.

Just my $0.02. I see it in sales and marketing, too.

Don’t bore us, get to the chorus.


.

[lee59]

The players for the nor'easter enter the United States tomorrow, I believe. 

[Tatamy]

They are sending Recon out into the PAC tomorrow:

NOUS42 KNHC 251930
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0230 PM EST TUE 25 JANUARY 2022
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JANUARY 2022
         WSPOD NUMBER.....21-056 AMENDMENT

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION ALONG
       TRACK 65 FOR 28/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
       A. 27/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 01WSC IOP04
       C. 26/1900Z (CHANGED)
       D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 
          20.0N 180.0W, 20.0N 155.0W, 40.0N 155.0W, AND 40.0N 180.0W.
       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 26/2030Z-27/0230Z
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT
       AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT
       ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
       PACIFIC FOR THE 28/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:  A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT
       MAY FLY ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN
       AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 29/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

The experts generally don’t like to use simple, straightforward language when communicating ideas. You see it in meteorology as well as Covid; my opinion is that they seem to want to sound as smart as possible to their peers, rather than their audience, who then get lost and tune them out, leading said experts to be annoyed when they’re not listened to.

Just my $0.02. I see it in sales and marketing, too.

Don’t bore us, get to the chorus.


.

As a former writing instructor, and journalist, I think it is more that it's just not part of their training. Science majors have credit intensive programs and there's little time for classes in communications and such; the most they are likely to get is a required expo writing class, and maybe a social science class. 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you also tell people this still has a chance of not being high impact 72 hours out

of course but thats true of any forecast.

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I wouldn't put specific amounts out until tomorrow evening and just note "potential for a significant winter storm is increasing for Saturday" etc and that what we get is most likely to be snow. There'll probably be a big have/have-not difference like these storms normally give, NYC is in a tight spot like in most storms and hyping big amounts up can still backfire. There's still time tomorrow night or Thu or even Fri to discuss big amounts if models continue the trends. 

I remember the debacle around the 2/8/13 storm and the insane NAM run Channel 4 literally put up on screen, and the Armageddon like hype before 1/27/15.  It really does make people less likely to pay attention before one really does hit. 

That said I have no idea what Lee Goldberg or anyone else is saying since I don't watch them anyway.  

thats basically what he said lol....actually it's word for word almost lol.

The thing people don't seem to understand with snowfall totals is there's a 10x variance in snowfall amounts vs rain (with a 10:1 ratio), so in reality what's a small difference is greatly magnified.  I'm just glad that we probably won't have any mixing issues here.  Anything else is fine by me.

 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you also tell people this still has a chance of not being high impact 72 hours out

the problem is "high impact" is too nebulous.  The potential for damaging coastal flooding and high winds and also the phase of the moon (new moon coming up) also adding to coastal damage was also mentioned and these would be issues with either of these tracks.

 

[Nibor]

14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

also high impact is defined differently for the weekend accumulations won't start till late Friday night

If you think my plans to go bowling with the boys Friday night ending up cancelled that results in staying in and ordering from that awesome Indian takeout spot (you know the one) that usually takes 45 minutes but ends up being an hour and 15 only to have to move boozy brunch with the girls on Saturday to Sunday (which is usually my self care day) is somehow not high impact... I don't know what to tell you.

 

Anyone got the 18z euro?

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the -AO -NAO substitute block showing up near the Canadian Maritimes that I mentioned the other day. While we usually have a 50/50 low, now there is a 50/50 ridge instead. So it takes the place of the -NAO and -AO and holds the high pressure on place over SE Canada and New England. We have seen this variation on several occasions since the snowier era began in 2003. 
 

 

Has this also led to more east coast impacting tropical cyclones since then?  I remember us discussing this ridge in reference to that also.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, North and West said:

The experts generally don’t like to use simple, straightforward language when communicating ideas. You see it in meteorology as well as Covid; my opinion is that they seem to want to sound as smart as possible to their peers, rather than their audience, who then get lost and tune them out, leading said experts to be annoyed when they’re not listened to.

Just my $0.02. I see it in sales and marketing, too.

Don’t bore us, get to the chorus.


.

That was the gift of Asimov, he used straightforward language and let his vast knowledge speak for itself (wrote in every category of the Dewey decimal system.)

 

[Franklin0529]

Doesn't look like euro gonna be as amped

[EasternLI]

Only goes out to hr90

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Only goes out to hr90

Is that east of 12z

[USCG RS]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Is that east of 12z

Not really. The capture is happening at that time. 

On the 12z it slungshot north after this. 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Is that east of 12z

Yes

[EasternLI]

It did look a bit less amped from 12z. Western Ridge not quite as stout. 

[TriPol]

Watch the 00z GFS go West and the 00Z EURO go East. Mass chaos!

[USCG RS]

Just now, USCG RS said:

Not really. The capture is happening at that time. 

On the 12z it slungshot north after this. 

I think those really analyzing the run are saying this is actually slightly west with the sfc LP. A hair.