Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It looks to me actually that the Low is in the spot as the EURO but the precip shield is not as expansive. Like Jm said, h5 didn't close off as quickly as the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Volcanic Winter said: In a quick stroll through Twitter, man a lot of forecasters are disregarding the crushjob OP Euro run. I get it, certainly. But a lot acting like it's not a possible outcome (or even in the ballpark of possible). I think NWS Mt Holly telling NJ to expect a 6 inch storm. Seems like many are favoring the GFS here. Certainly seems like a decent risk for a big part of NJ to get more than 6 inch at this point, but I certainly get the hesitation after 2015 and with a set up like this. Conservatism is the way to go, especially this far out. But they also complain that no one listens to them because this is a social media world now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Volcanic Winter said: In a quick stroll through Twitter, man a lot of forecasters are disregarding the crushjob OP Euro run. I get it, certainly. But a lot acting like it's not a possible outcome (or even in the ballpark of possible). I think NWS Mt Holly telling NJ to expect a 6 inch storm. Seems like many are favoring the GFS here. Certainly seems like a decent risk for a big part of NJ to get more than 6 inch at this point, but I certainly get the hesitation after 2015 and with a set up like this. Mt. Holly disco is conservative for sure. Giving little love to the Euro. OKX is more bullish. Time will tell. All options still on the table. The s/w tops the ridge out west tomorrow. I'm interested in 00Z runs tonight but really interested in the 12Z runs tomorrow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I'd argue the end result was still a world away. We got a cleaner phase with the southern stream this run, but the Euro's solution actually takes a messy phase in stride - it strings out the southern vortmax and leaves more energy behind. We get the Euro bomb from a more aggressive northern stream and better upstream ridge amplitude. Good post. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: why are people complaining? It has 6 inches of snow from eastern parts of the city on east....this is exactly where you want it to be at this stage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, MANDA said: Mt. Holly disco is conservative for sure. Giving little love to the Euro. OKX is more bullish. Time will tell. All options still on the table. The s/w tops the ridge out west tomorrow. I'm interested in 00Z runs tonight but really interested in the 12Z runs tomorrow. Yeah 0z and 12z runs are always the ones to favor. Highest skill scores in the NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why are people complaining? It has 6 inches of snow from eastern parts of the city on east....this is exactly where you want it to be at this stage. It gives NYC about 3 and N and W about 1. That's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why are people complaining? It has 6 inches of snow from eastern parts of the city on east....this is exactly where you want it to be at this stage. for plowing I will take the 4-6 and run i dont need more than that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Lee Goldberg is already honking on this storm, saying the chances are getting stronger that this will be a high impact event for our area with two days of snowfall 60+ mph winds and lots of coastal flooding. have to keep the viewers returning - advertising high impact this far out only opens you up to criticism if we only get a light to moderate event ..... 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Gefs bump east from 12z though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, MANDA said: Mt. Holly disco is conservative for sure. Giving little love to the Euro. OKX is more bullish. Time will tell. All options still on the table. The s/w tops the ridge out west tomorrow. I'm interested in 00Z runs tonight but really interested in the 12Z runs tomorrow. better to be conservative with snowfall totals 4 days out and adjust as needed each remaining day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Conservatism is the way to go, especially this far out. But they also complain that no one listens to them because this is a social media world nowThey’re in a tough spot. They can’t go HAM at this stage but then complain when people chase shiny Twitter forecasts.Do you ever read their presentations? They’re god awful. I do internationally-based marketing and business development and I wish I could help the NWS. They’re making 1995 presentations in the 2020s.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Im not really focused on snow totals until earliest tomorrow, for now just focused on track/intensity etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: have to keep the viewers returning - advertising high impact this far out only opens you up to criticism if we only get a light to moderate event ..... optimism is better than pessimism. Basically what he said is that all the models are trending towards a major impact. The best thing this has going for it is that there is no chance of any mixing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Im not really focused on snow totals until earliest tomorrow, for now just focused on track/intensity etc. snow totals can only be reasonably forecast a maximum of 48 hours out. The best thing this has going for it is that there is no chance of any mixing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, North and West said: They’re in a tough spot. They can’t go HAM at this stage but then complain when people chase shiny Twitter forecasts. Do you ever read their presentations? They’re god awful. I do internationally-based marketing and business development and I wish I could help the NWS. They’re making 1995 presentations in the 2020s. . Yep, and this is endemic in the scientific community. Communications is a huge issue in science and it's why we see society behaving the way it does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: better to be conservative with snowfall totals 4 days out and adjust as needed each remaining day Saying 6+ is fine. I remember that was the forecast for PD2 a few days before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GEFS 500mb It looks like a capture if you ask me 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Torch said: “viewers returning” You think that little of Goldberg? let's leave the TV talk to the vendor thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yep, and this is endemic in the scientific community. Communications is a huge issue in science and it's why we see society behaving the way it does. This is very true, but it's also got to do with funding. But many people, myself included, don't have a good understanding of the science ( so I basically just trust the experts ) and I think, as the spouse of a scientist and the father of two in training, that the scientific community does bear some responsibility here, because they tend to lack patience with those who have trouble keeping up. Also science by its nature is ever evolving; so what might be time honored practice today could change tomorrow. People have trouble with that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: snow totals can only be reasonably forecast a maximum of 48 hours out. The best thing this has going for it is that there is no chance of any mixing here No chance is a strong statement this far out but it is very very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: He should just say not holding back energy like it was before....further east and more progressive will confuse some people into thinking the storm itself will be further east and more progressive. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I thought this was interesting concerning the western ridge. The following is from the NWS Albany discussion: To add even more uncertainty to the forecast, Stony Brook Sensitivity analysis developed through CSTAR research suggests that the eventual track of the storm will also be sensitive to the strength of the upper ridge that develops downstream of the trough (as is usually the case with these large east coast storms). A stronger ridge will be associated with a storm track further to the west; this is seen in the Euro solution as well. Often, but not always, models underestimate the strength of the downstream ridge in the medium-range as they cannot resolve the diabatic ridge-building due to latent heat release. With ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it is certainly possible that this trend will manifest itself with this storm as well. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: This is very true, but it's also got to do with funding. But many people, myself included, don't have a good understanding of the science ( so I basically just trust the experts ) and I think, as the spouse of a scientist and the father of two in training, that the scientific community does bear some responsibility here, because they tend to lack patience with those who have trouble keeping up. Also science by its nature is ever evolving; so what might be time honored practice today could change tomorrow. People have trouble with that. Correct- it is ever evolving and changing and its dynamic nature reflects our changing knowledge, if anyone has problems with that they should just look at what our level of technology was in the 80s compared to today lol. Where do people think all that new technology came from? Evolving science of course. Science and technology are intrinsically linked. Congrats on the science family-- I bet they'll do better than the previous generation did. I think the best communicators in science were guys like Carl Sagan, who were both professional writers as well as scientists. Carl Sagan was exceptional at communicating science, maybe the GOAT (along with Isaac Asimov, who I would also put up there with him.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I thought this was interesting concerning the western ridge. The following is from the NWS Albany discussion: To add even more uncertainty to the forecast, Stony Brook Sensitivity analysis developed through CSTAR research suggests that the eventual track of the storm will also be sensitive to the strength of the upper ridge that develops downstream of the trough (as is usually the case with these large east coast storms). A stronger ridge will be associated with a storm track further to the west; this is seen in the Euro solution as well. Often, but not always, models underestimate the strength of the downstream ridge in the medium-range as they cannot resolve the diabatic ridge-building due to latent heat release. With ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it is certainly possible that this trend will manifest itself with this storm as well. love that Atlantic ridge for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, Doorman said: GEFS 500mb It looks like a capture if you ask me Good catch. There's a nice trend happening there too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Saying 6+ is fine. I remember that was the forecast for PD2 a few days before the storm. 6+ inches for this storm 4 days out - what based on the EURO ? No guarantee of 6 yet maybe 2 - 4 - higher amounts east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: He should just say not holding back energy like it was before....further east and more progressive will confuse some people into thinking the storm itself will be further east and more progressive. That's exactly what I thought he meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 6+ inches for this storm 4 days out - what based on the EURO ? No guarantee of 6 yet maybe 2 - 4 - higher amounts east GFS is also 6+ inches from eastern parts of the city on east. It would be irresponsible not to make people aware of the dangers. Underpreparing is much more dangerous than overpreparing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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