Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 You guys oversold that one a little bit 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: still east but a trend to the euro 3 minutes ago, RDRY said: GFS is a stubborn SOB. Takes its sweet time getting there. H5 was a huge improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: You guys oversold that one a little bit No we didn't Huge step to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 close but still wide right with the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: H5 was a huge improvement That's all I care about. Who cares what it shows on the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: H5 was a huge improvement Indeed. But it looks like the GFS surface is not quite in sync with its upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 That was a big step towards the euro. Much better at H5. There's a incremental trend for better interaction going for 4 runs now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, RDRY said: GFS is a stubborn SOB. Takes its sweet time getting there. It really is. Stubborn and stupid is no way to go through life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: No we didn't Huge step to the euro I think the move was minimal. Not too different from the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GFS is getting there and trending toward the euro. Again all I really care about at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, KeithB said: I think the move was minimal. Not too different from the 12z gfs The improvements at h5 were pretty large and very apparent. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, KeithB said: I think the move was minimal. Not too different from the 12z gfs The surface low was only slightly west but H5 was markedly better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: The improvements at h5 were pretty large and very apparent. Fair enough. Let's have favorable 0z runs!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, KeithB said: I think the move was minimal. Not too different from the 12z gfs Don't pay attention to the surface. H5 is considerably different than last couple runs with a strong trend towards Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 For those who want to nitpick, the upper air lows don't close off soon enough for many of us so the heavy snow is forced east somewhat. Euro closes them off much sooner. But overall a significant move toward the Euro. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Don't pay attention to the surface. H5 is considerably different than last couple runs with a strong trend towards Euro. Well, for my part of NJ the GFS is 2" or so while the euro is 2 feet or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 20 minutes ago, Rjay said: Rgem looks great. Would crush us. Thanks but GFS still does not hook enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 When the most S/E major model (GFS) has the 6" line running around I-95, with others (NAM, EURO, RGEM) 12" plus...get excited. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The GFS tends to be stubborn on these setups...it sometimes won't cave til the final 36 hours but if its a monster KU type event it may cave earlier 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Torch said: Doocy? Lol No, just stupid, lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobjohnsonforthehall Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 With the way that the trough goes negative there is zero chance of the low taking that track. It's just the GFS chasing convection at the surface. It will come around. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS tends to be stubborn on these setups...it sometimes won't cave til the final 36 hours but if its a monster KU type event it may cave earlier It looks to me actually that the Low is in the spot as the EURO but the precip shield is not as expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: H5 was a huge improvement H5 improvement always leads surface impacts.....0z could be amazing. Thats the most accurate run historically anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No we didn't Huge step to the euro I'd argue the end result was still a world away. We got a cleaner phase with the southern stream this run, but the Euro's solution actually takes a messy phase in stride - it strings out the southern vortmax and leaves more energy behind. We get the Euro bomb from a more aggressive northern stream and better upstream ridge amplitude. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The model that's had the worst looks at 500mb just got markedly better. Don't care at all about the surface at this early stage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS tends to be stubborn on these setups...it sometimes won't cave til the final 36 hours but if its a monster KU type event it may cave earlier It's only like thousands of times we've seen this scenario play out before and H5 always leads the way. I'd want for surface changes to wait for the 0z run anyway because of its higher skill scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 In a quick stroll through Twitter, man a lot of forecasters are disregarding the crushjob OP Euro run. I get it, certainly. But a lot acting like it's not a possible outcome (or even in the ballpark of possible). I think NWS Mt Holly telling NJ to expect a 6 inch storm. Seems like many are favoring the GFS here. Certainly seems like a decent risk for a big part of NJ to get more than 6 inch at this point, but I certainly get the hesitation after 2015 and with a set up like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, EasternLI said: The model that's had the worst looks at 500mb just got markedly better. Don't care at all about the surface at this early stage. Basically yeah, that's what a pro would say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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