EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro ensembles are insane west of the BM Assuming they ticked west of 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: depends where your going, etc. Spokane by way of Seattle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: No, clearly said unhappy. The Euro is the only model that brings the big totals West of the city. What do you mean by big totals? I'm not unhappy with 10-12 and don't need the hassle of 20+....but 2-4 would be a bit of a letdown...I'm just west of SI, Middlesex County, not really a big snow area, especially with these east storms, that triangle of inner Raritan Bay its just a tad west for that kind of storm, but close enough to see something....again, this is days away and nothing would surprise me, even a complete whiff here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hitman said: Question-I have a flight out of jfk at 3:40 Friday afternoon. Good or should I be looking to leave earlier? You're fine. If we do get snow it wouldn't be till Friday night closer to midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Winds from Euro Control. OOF If the stall/capture happens in that spot yikes for us. But the consensus is still a good bit NE of there for it, closer to Cape Cod. My gut tells me it’ll take a lot of luck to spread the wealth well inland at least west of NYC but the Euro’s what you’d want to see for that to happen. Its tendency to over-amp these systems in recent years gives me some pause. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: You're fine. If we do get snow it wouldn't be till Friday night closer to midnight. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 For the NYC Metro Region for now though I'm not yet mentioning exact amounts in my official forecast, if the European model track holds and other models trend towards it I'm thinking of this as a 12-18" storm for NYC & points north/east/southern NJ, etc. Less as you go north and west. But if the track is a hair further to the left, you could bump this up another 6". If the track is a hair to the right you could bump this down 6-8". If the track becomes too tucked in, then you go 5-10" with mixing or temporary changeover issues. Again, not going official with these numbers yet. While an outlier, there is a history of these kinds of storms in this kind of winter slipping altogether out to our south and east leaving us high and dry and that possibility is still IMO not out of the question. WX/PT 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 20 minutes ago, MANDA said: Euro control not at all that different from op. Should have individual members son. Massive difference up here. Lock it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I agree with people saying the Euro doesn't make a ton of sense. There are certainly outlier storms but it is rare for both Eastern LI and the HV to both get significant snow, however it seems to get there by tracking the low due north as opposed to NE and then closing off stopping WAA. We've already seen one storm do that this winter so it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 EURO still on the beam: Look at the 30" Cape May wipe out or white out. Anyone know what the single storm snow total record is for Cape May? Just trying to judge if this run is legit based on history. Maybe 1899 Blizzard? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, CIK62 said: EURO still on the beam: Look at the 30" Cape May wipe out or white out. Anyone know what the single storm snow total record is for Cape May? Just trying to judge if this run is legit based on history. Maybe 1899 Blizzard? I believe that Cape May received 34 inches from the 1899 blizzard but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 34 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This ain’t the fourth quarter. Maybe we’re getting close to halftime. “End of the beginning”? We have way too many battle scars from late shifts/fails on these to start calling it a win. And the other models largely still fringe NYC and have NW areas high and dry. Have to keep the trend going on the other models. Agree it's about halftime with a 17-10 lead or so for NYC and a bigger lead for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I'd like to get @forkyfork take. He's been spot on all winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Wheres Waldo? Oops meant Walt! Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Lots of Euro ensemble members west of the mean again that seem to go just SE of Montauk. I’m sure those members are bombs. 2-3 members skew the average to the east which go well SE of Cape Cod. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I'd like to get @forkyfork take. He's been spot on all winter 42 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 2015 this ain't. i didn't draw the lines so don't get mad at me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Nibor said: Can u translate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Can u translate? My guess is that the trough orientation is different from Juno. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Can u translate? Trough too far east had fail written all over that one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Before we get hopes too high, we need the other real models to output significant hits for the region. They are trending that way, but slowly. It was nice to see the 12Z RGEM handling the SW energy like the EURO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Can anyone provide the technical difference between the Kuchera and the Euro actual snowfall total maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 EURO individual members for Central Park. About as impressive as you can ask for at this juncture. Makes a major fail seem unlikely. Odds significantly raised this EURO cycle for decent event into NYC metro. Caveat.....ensembles can and do move so I'm not taking this to the bank at this point. Will be key once the energy tops the western ridge and gets into sounding network if EURO (or for that matter GFS/CMC) make any abrupt swings. If EURO can hold tonight and then duplicate tomorrow will feel better. CMC and GFS will then also have to start adjusting west. I'm encourged by ensembles but no way is this a lock. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 23 minutes ago, Nibor said: @forkyfork. Wrong subforum jerk. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: @forkyfork. Wrong subforum jerk. He hates us, he's embarrassed by us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Torch said: FYI- Feb 78” had the loopidy loop closed low. btw we are in the 4th qtr even if it is Tuesday. So did 96... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Nam is not leaving that much energy so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 37 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I agree with people saying the Euro doesn't make a ton of sense. There are certainly outlier storms but it is rare for both Eastern LI and the HV to both get significant snow, however it seems to get there by tracking the low due north as opposed to NE and then closing off stopping WAA. We've already seen one storm do that this winter so it is possible. It's rare indeed. But possible in intense systems that are maxing out near our latitude. Because the rain snow line is drawn tight to the actual low center in those cases. This has that rare potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Nam is not leaving that much energy so far Nam is worthless until you're within 60 hours really. Even then, take it with a grain of salt. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said: Nam is worthless until you're within 60 hours really. Even then, take it with a grain of salt. WX/PT This next two days are the worst part of the wait as we start overreacting to 60 to 84 hour NAM panels. At least one will show NYC getting 40" of snow; another will show a cutter to the Lakes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now