LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: Probably. And then we might get our best snows of the year in a "warm" pattern. Sometimes it's just random like that. That might have been possible but we already had a 6" snowstorm here. I guess it could still happen in March but the chances of a double digit snowstorm are highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: When the wavelengths start to change that's when things could get wonky. And sometimes that wonkiness can lead to a snowstorm. CC has accelerated the odds of such freak occurrences deep into March. What causes wavelengths to change and why can't they change in the middle of winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Im so confused. Is someone holding some of you hostage? Forcing you to make posts in a random thread on a random weather forum? Its a nice day out. Go outside. Go watch a movie. Go watch Brady forced into retirement. But why post in a storm specific thread if you dont believe the threat exists? Move on to something else. But there is still discussion going on. If you dont want the discussion to occur, close the tab. Problem solved. Now back to the model watching. 6 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: That might have been possible but we already had a 6" snowstorm here. I guess it could still happen in March but the chances of a double digit snowstorm are highly unlikely. A storm in early January has no bearing on the likelihood of a storm in February or March. Their probabilities are almost completely independent. Major snowstorms are always unlikely, by definition. But there's probably at least a 1 in 4 chance. And >4" snows can happen in almost any kind of background weather pattern. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Im so confused. Is someone holding some of you hostage? Forcing you to make posts in a random thread on a random weather forum? Its a nice day out. Go outside. Go watch a movie. Go watch Brady forced into retirement. But why post in a storm specific thread if you dont believe the threat exists? Move on to something else. But there is still discussion going on. If you dont want the discussion to occur, close the tab. Problem solved. Now back to the model watching. But how am I supposed to look superior if I don’t shit on weenies? 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I like that it's shown up on more than one model (albeit at different times). Seems to suggest the solution is out there as a possibility in the ether, somewhere, but we need to get lucky. At least it doesn't seem like total fantasy at this point, but that of course could change. Well, far better than having nothing to watch, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 00z eps vs 12z eps 12z 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The JMA is nearly identical to the CMC. It lacks the resolution to show the true lowest pressure, but it's a close match aloft. And it actually lingers a little longer as it moves northeast off the Cape. Huge hit for LI and CT at least. Everyone will say it's just the JMA, but I'll take it. The more support the better. Eventually we need every model to come around. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: The JMA is nearly identical to the CMC. It lacks the resolution to show the true lowest pressure, but it's a close match aloft. And it actually lingers a little longer as it moves northeast off the Cape. Huge hit for LI and CT at least. Everyone will say it's just the JMA, but I'll take it. The more support the better. Eventually we need every model to come around. JMA supported the Euro for a bit when it was on an island too, NAVGEM jumped aboard too if I recall, better than nothing but barely lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like it unfortunately. We kept the same unfavorable fast flow despite colder air coming in due to Alaskan ridging. The CMC is on an island. Tonight will make or break it. Too soon to say tonight makes or break imo. Remember the GFS did have a run yesterday that was a big hit but by tomorrow 12Z we want to see at least more than one model on board or else it's starting to feel like dejavu another OTS miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I just checked the EPS. Very few of the individuals get precip. back to us or especially further west. Even the ones where the SLP makes a close pass are pretty limited on the western side. That's what happens if the trof develops late... which is where this looks to be heading. Eastern SNE can pull it off, but we need an explosive trof. Ironically the one EPS member that tilted earlier ended up taking the same track as last weekend that deformed in Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: I just checked the EPS. Very few of the individuals get precip. back to us or especially further west. Even the ones where the SLP makes a close pass are pretty limited on the western side. That's what happens if the trof develops late... which is where this looks to be heading. Eastern SNE can pull it off, but we need an explosive trof. Ironically the one EPS member that tilted earlier ended up taking the same track as last weekend that deformed in Ontario. On the 12z GEFS, out of 20 members, one hits the whole area, another is an inland runner, another clips the east end of LI, and the remainder bring minimal or nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, eduggs said: I just checked the EPS. Very few of the individuals get precip. back to us or especially further west. Even the ones where the SLP makes a close pass are pretty limited on the western side. That's what happens if the trof develops late... which is where this looks to be heading. Eastern SNE can pull it off, but we need an explosive trof. Ironically the one EPS member that tilted earlier ended up taking the same track as last weekend that deformed in Ontario. It's more tightly clustered west compared to 0z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's more tightly clustered west compared to 0z Yeah maybe. But out of 51 members they're almost all misses. Of course they tend to cluster around the OP, so if the OP shifts west the EPS likely will to. But it goes to show how much further west we need this to shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Forky has been on fire this year. Until he starts honking keeping my expectations in check. Un-scientific but still would be shocked not to get something before the patter relaxes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Well the CFS moved 600 miles west, so lock it in boys and girls. (What is the CFS anyway?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 pressure falls and contour walls.....keep a shovel handy JIC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 hour ago, eduggs said: The JMA is nearly identical to the CMC. It lacks the resolution to show the true lowest pressure, but it's a close match aloft. And it actually lingers a little longer as it moves northeast off the Cape. Huge hit for LI and CT at least. Everyone will say it's just the JMA, but I'll take it. The more support the better. Eventually we need every model to come around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, there is a cluster of members not far from from the CMC with very deep solutions. Some of the individual members are very impressive. It looks like small changes can make a big difference with this one. Looking at 700mb, 850mb, and surface QPF... members 10 and 12 fringe us. 11 and 15 are misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, there is a cluster of members not far from from the CMC with very deep solutions. Some of the individual members are very impressive. It looks like small changes can make a big difference with this one. Yeah, maybe it doesn't work out. But it's not a bad position to be in currently at 120+hrs away. At least there is room for future amplification this time, should it occur. Certainly worth watching at least. Long way to go. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Jt17 said: Well the CFS moved 600 miles west, so lock it in boys and girls. (What is the CFS anyway?) The joker in the deck is what it is 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The 18z ICON is an improvement over 12z aloft. I looks like it would still mostly miss east, but the trof is better for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 This run it was the CMC with the Hail Mary. Great football action as the numericals pass and fumble the ball among each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Gfs similar to euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs similar to euro Honestly pretty good run to run consistency for this far out last 4 runs of the gfs. Sadly this is looking like another wide right but still some time for changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 16 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Honestly pretty good run to run consistency for this far out last 4 runs of the gfs. Sadly this is looking like another wide right but still some time for changes. Gefs looking better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Torch said: A good mid winter look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 GEFS much more amplified 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Progress. The individual members seem to be clustering too which is a good sign. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I would urge caution with the GEFS. For last weekends inland runner, the GFS was consistently the extreme western outlier against every single GEFS member for run after run at this range. The GEFS failed to signal the correct outcome in this case. I think we need to see the GFS and the Euro make meaningful shifts towards an impactful storm to have any confidence. Right now they are not close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now