Volcanic Winter Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Nothing would make me happier than getting sick snowfall here in coastal NJ while all you guys also rock out up north. Let's do this! (No whammies) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Imagine if we get the Euro track further west with GEM surface pressure and winds. You know it's getting real when Chris's inner weenie makes an appearance. :-) And yeah I'm def hoping for that combination! Still plenty of time between now and the weekend though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: You and your logic and scientific reasoning. Psh. Kuchera shows 40” for Ocean City MD or close to that. Totally plausible!! Let’s get Roger Smith a beach cabin down there. Might take a century to get him dug out. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 where is Roger Smith after seeing the euro? lollis to 70”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Torch said: We are ahead 10 points going into the fourth quarter. Better not be facing Tom Brady 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Important to remember the storm's impacts up here aren't even in the range of the NAM yet, and think of how much back and forth the models do just inside the NAM range...so people that were writing this off as solely E LI/SNE for major impacts, we have a long way to go and things can change drastically. Same goes for that latest EURO run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 34 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I just wish this was 24hrs away not 84-96. We still can’t jump head first on this. Maybe weenie first. Lots of time for significant trends that would affect the outcome. You're not wrong but it should be noted how consistent the Euro has been the last few days as well as how tightly clustered the ensembles are. Very far from a locked in position especially with the variance of the other models but it's a good spot to be in right now which, of course, can change quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro ensembles are insane west of the BM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Torch said: We are ahead 10 points going into the fourth quarter. This ain’t the fourth quarter. Maybe we’re getting close to halftime. “End of the beginning”? We have way too many battle scars from late shifts/fails on these to start calling it a win. And the other models largely still fringe NYC and have NW areas high and dry. Have to keep the trend going on the other models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro control coming in now and it looks like it is gonna rock and roll once again. In though 96 hours - 12Z Saturday with sfc low at 976 east of Ocean City and south Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I would also dump any crazy Kuchera snow maps. Winds will lower ratios to 10-1, maybe slightly higher to like 12-1 especially near the coast. But where the banding happens will definitely produce big time. The “max” shown over DE is from the early closing off and maxing out lift from the closing off upper lows there but it’s way too early to pinpoint where that happens. That kuchera map is not that crazy IMBY. It shows a 14:1 ratio when my climo is 12:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, MANDA said: Euro control coming in now and it looks like it is gonna rock and roll once again. In though 96 hours - 12Z Saturday with sfc low at 976 east of Ocean City and south Montauk. Control is insane. Saturday 18Z centered near Montauk at 967 and then sits and does a tight loop for next 6 hours before it starts to lift into the southen Gulf of Maine early Sunday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: That kuchera map is not that crazy IMBY. It shows a 14:1 ratio when my climo is 12:1. If you have 30-40mph+ winds, it breaks apart the flakes and lowers ratios. There’s usually a western most deformation band where ratios can be maxed but if winds are that high ratios can be cut down. 12 or 13-1 I can see but huge ratios won’t happen with strong winds. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro ensembles are insane west of the BM Either euro coming for the throne or gonna throw up on itself. Even a blend of euro/gfs be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Either euro coming for the throne or gonna throw up on itself. Even a blend of euro/gfs be great Just please no repeat of Jan 2015 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro control not at all that different from op. Should have individual members son. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 please read the link Kudo's go to Tate and Rausch the WPC forecasters and their 500 mb progs https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd as good a disco as you will ever read dm 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If you have 30-40mph+ winds, it breaks apart the flakes and lowers ratios. There’s usually a western most deformation band where ratios can be maxed but if winds are that high ratios can be cut down. 12 or 13-1 I can see but huge ratios won’t happen with strong winds. Speaking of winds, I am rather concerned with the winds showing up for Long Island, especially Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: Control is insane. Saturday 18Z centered near Montauk at 967 and then sits and does a tight loop for next 6 hours before it starts to lift into the southen Gulf of Maine early Sunday. Thats how you get big big totals. If it pulls a loopdy loop, 24-30+ in the jackpot zones.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 EURO M still have nice solid signal just not as far west as control. Still lots of time for what WILL BE adjustments in the final outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Better to play it conservative. A lot can happen inside of 96hrs. The GFS also cannot be completely ruled out. A compromise solution between the two would still leave a lot of the sub forum unhappy. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Better to play it conservative. A lot can happen inside of 96hrs. The GFS also cannot be completely ruled out. A compromise solution between the two would still leave a lot of the sub forum unhappy. I'm assuming you meant "happy", and I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 EPS isn't loading for me. Must be too many weenies dumped in the mainframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Better to play it conservative. A lot can happen inside of 96hrs. The GFS also cannot be completely ruled out. A compromise solution between the two would still leave a lot of the sub forum unhappy. Yes but the GFS has been trending west ever since 18z yesterday. It could be a windshield wiper effect situation where it goes east again but it's not like the GFS has been consistent with its solution. In any event, conservative is definitely the way to go until a consensus forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I don't care about ratios if we have the behemoth that's on the euro show up. Give me wind. Give me snow. Give me wind blown snow. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, MANDA said: Euro control not at all that different from op. Should have individual members son. Show the Kuchera map for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Winds from Euro Control. OOF 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Question-I have a flight out of jfk at 3:40 Friday afternoon. Good or should I be looking to leave earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, mob1 said: I'm assuming you meant "happy", and I agree. No, clearly said unhappy. The Euro is the only model that brings the big totals West of the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hitman said: Question-I have a flight out of jfk at 3:40 Friday afternoon. Good or should I be looking to leave earlier? depends where your going, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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