Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Closed low over North Carolina. Love to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: SNJ gets crushed with over 20 inches of snow Dual maximum perhaps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: SNJ gets crushed with over 20 inches of snow Post a map for the hell of it LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: SNJ gets crushed with over 20 inches of snow Snowfall maps are extra useless with this storm. The models simply cannot pinpoint where the heaviest banding is going to occur so they broad brush a lot of snow. When you see totals like this, it means that you're going to see a lot of areas over 18". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 What a nuke!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The Euro tracks the low almost due north from hour 96 to 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Nibor said: Closed low over North Carolina. Love to see that. Textbook KU. This run splits the difference and tracks the ULL over the twin forks and then SNE. It's a much better track for areas West of the Hudson and potentially brings mixing issues into Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: any clown maps yet? 4 3 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: Snowfall maps are extra useless with this storm. The models simply cannot pinpoint where the heaviest banding is going to occur so they broad brush a lot of snow. When you see totals like this, it means that you're going to see a lot of areas over 18". True... but its still fun to look at 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I just wish this was 24hrs away not 84-96. We still can’t jump head first on this. Maybe weenie first. Lots of time for significant trends that would affect the outcome. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: Sick run for our subforum. Not too much else to say. Trying to work and be a weenie at the same time. weenie away ,,,,,I mean the boss loves production,,,,,carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Snowfall maps are extra useless with this storm. The models simply cannot pinpoint where the heaviest banding is going to occur so they broad brush a lot of snow. When you see totals like this, it means that you're going to see a lot of areas over 18". And the ratios are going to be high as well N and W. Climo up by me in Dutchess is 12:1 and I suspect it could be 15:1 or higher with this storm. Euro gives me 1.40 qpf. I'd sign for that now but do want it to come a tick west. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks perfectly fine to me for 90% of us, maybe not the well NW areas. Low really gets going a good bit E of NC but makes a sharp turn north with the bombing upper air low. Very nice phase but a bit delayed from last run. Not surprising since other models are still decently east of the Euro. Maybe some sort of compromise. It isn’t too often that the twin forks, Montauk Point and Fishers Island stay all snow and places like Orange, Rockland, Passaic still get heavy snow out of it like the Euro is showing, that would be an extremely unusual storm should that actually happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doorman said: You were spot on. U think this gonna be a beast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: As I mentioned, this output is just like the 06Z euro control run....which as I read it uses the non-perturbed ensemble members and best available data. That being said, in my experience tracking east coast storms the control does not come close to the operational in terms of what actually occurs when they diverge, have no idea why. In this case they match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I just wish this was 24hrs away not 84-96. We still can’t jump head first on this. Maybe weenie first. Lots of time for significant trends that would affect the outcome. Almost at the range where Euro would lock in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Hey I know it's only Tuesday, but nice call T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Almost at the range where Euro would lock in. WOULD being the keyword - what happens now after its downgrade who knows......... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, Doorman said: Very nice But is a rug pull coming tonight or tomorrow or are we good? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 hours ago, Doorman said: When you see the euro tick west at 1:00 pm Come back to this map and hug it for me!!!!! Take a bow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Almost at the range where Euro would lock in. I just remember the problems it seems to have with overdoing/overamping these type of redeveloping storms. Hopefully this bias was fixed since Jan 2015 when we were burned west of Suffolk County. I’d really want the models like the GFS keep coming west to be confident in it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 god that euro run was porn! if only it where thurs night! hard not to get excited but my expectations are super low considering its track record so far this winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Almost at the range where Euro would lock in. Almost there. Maybe 00z -12z on Thursday should do it. 50-100 mile shift could make a difference. Also there is a possibility of it slowing or stalling out. Just a few more runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Last 4 runs of the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Nibor said: Last 4 runs of the Euro. Closing off early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Closing off early Closing off earlier with a deeper trough. Beautiful look. Nice trends in our favor. Still a long time to go though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I would also dump any crazy Kuchera snow maps. Winds will lower ratios to 10-1, maybe slightly higher to like 12-1 especially near the coast. But where the banding happens will definitely produce big time. The “max” shown over DE is from the early closing off and maxing out lift from the closing off upper lows there but it’s way too early to pinpoint where that happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Imagine if we get the Euro track further west with GEM lower pressure and higher winds. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I would also dump any crazy Kuchera snow maps. Winds will lower ratios to 10-1, maybe slightly higher to like 12-1 especially near the coast. But where the banding happens will definitely produce big time. The “max” shown over DE is from the early closing off and maxing out lift from the closing off upper lows there but it’s way too early to pinpoint where that happens. You and your logic and scientific reasoning. Psh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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