snywx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Tight squeeze for folks like @snywxand myself…not going to be shocked if this one won’t play in our favor while someone just 50-100 miles East pulls 20”. I’ve seen this movie way too many times. It’s shades for us up here. This is a E LI, ENE special. We need a substantial shift for anything meaningful up this way. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 43 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: January 26th, 2016 and January 4th, 2018 blizzards were south/east of the benchmark and unloaded on the region. Part of this is where the lows came from prior to arriving near the benchmark. Jan 4 2018? That was about 6-8 inches here; the bands wouldn't cross west of the Hudson. 2016 was more of an I95 crusher, both east and west of it...IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Remember this storm is still 4 days out. I don't know why people are acting like the storm track is edged in stone. This could still trend way better or way worse but the bottomline is their is major upside potential for whoever ends up in the jackpot zone. What is with all the posts criticizing and analyzing people's behavior while model watching the last week? This post above brings zero to the conversation and frankly therefore neither does my responding to it, but can I ask everyone to let the rest of the forum do their thing and reject your inner authoritarian tendencies to tell people how to feel? "Etched" in stone btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Just amazed at the potential from this storm if it follows the GEM evolution, that much rapid deepening with very cold air interacting with anomalously warm ocean temperatures suggests some very high snowfall totals are possible, perhaps March 1888 needs to be considered as part of analogue set (if there is an outcome like these model runs are suggesting). Think also there was a storm March 1-2 1914 that combined very low pressures, strong winds and heavy snow. That one from historical weather maps was a bit closer to NYC than the track of the Blizzard of 1888. My first call on this would be 18-24 inches NYC metro, 24-48 inches Long Island and parts of CT, 12-18 n NJ. Wind gusts 70-90 mph seem possible. This could create emergency situation for much of the region and most of New England. Still time for models to change but I see the nucleus of the storm already over UT, CO and WY. 24-48 inches on Long Island with 70-90 mph gusts. Too conservative? 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 32 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said: The later one. I remember the the long range 72 prog forecasted it and we at Lyndon State College we’re impressed by the model performance. Boy have times have change. That was a big one in CNJ...it was 17 inches and that was more than anyone had ever seen in my local HS....wouldn't happen again until Feb 83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Just amazed at the potential from this storm if it follows the GEM evolution, that much rapid deepening with very cold air interacting with anomalously warm ocean temperatures suggests some very high snowfall totals are possible, perhaps March 1888 needs to be considered as part of analogue set (if there is an outcome like these model runs are suggesting). Think also there was a storm March 1-2 1914 that combined very low pressures, strong winds and heavy snow. That one from historical weather maps was a bit closer to NYC than the track of the Blizzard of 1888. My first call on this would be 18-24 inches NYC metro, 24-48 inches Long Island and parts of CT, 12-18 n NJ. Wind gusts 70-90 mph seem possible. This could create emergency situation for much of the region and most of New England. Still time for models to change but I see the nucleus of the storm already over UT, CO and WY. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 @wdrag. We miss you in here. Any thoughts? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'm thinking some of that is snark....48 inches? This isn't the Rockies..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: 24-48 inches on Long Island with 70-90 mph gusts. Too conservative? I was gonna say, amazing how blah he thinks this'll be. I mean, my second story bedroom window might still be clear by the end of it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Gun to my head, this looks to me at this point like a Juno-type outcome and we want the west trends to continue to really call it a storm for NYC. NW suburbs need some big help. Storms like these often tick east a little at the very end. We want the phasing to happen sooner. LI especially east of the William Floyd and CT east of I-91 is in a good spot. But we're still not even in NAM range with this yet so lots of time for significant changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I'm thinking some of that is snark....48 inches? This isn't the Rockies..... Check out Rhode Island during 78. And the Albany area during 1888. While unlikely it’s not impossible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Check out Rhode Island during 78. And the Albany area during 1888. While unlikely it’s not impossible fast moving system.....no, I can definitely say its impossible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I’m hesitant to put much weight on the mesos at the end of their runs so it’s rn only the Euro showing NYC proper getting the goods. The globals, aside from the Euro, seem to be showing the surface low just east of the BM, we want that a little more tucked but I’d still think the precip shield would be a teensy bit more expansive without suppression pushing down. Euro on an island despite some west trends, I expect it to tick a little east to start to meet its buddies somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 23 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Just amazed at the potential from this storm if it follows the GEM evolution, that much rapid deepening with very cold air interacting with anomalously warm ocean temperatures suggests some very high snowfall totals are possible, perhaps March 1888 needs to be considered as part of analogue set (if there is an outcome like these model runs are suggesting). Think also there was a storm March 1-2 1914 that combined very low pressures, strong winds and heavy snow. That one from historical weather maps was a bit closer to NYC than the track of the Blizzard of 1888. My first call on this would be 18-24 inches NYC metro, 24-48 inches Long Island and parts of CT, 12-18 n NJ. Wind gusts 70-90 mph seem possible. This could create emergency situation for much of the region and most of New England. Still time for models to change but I see the nucleus of the storm already over UT, CO and WY. always start high.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I wouldn't go more than 6-12" for anyone West of the Nassau County line unless things shift substantially. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 24-48 inches on Long Island with 70-90 mph gusts. Too conservative?I almost threw my phone across the room after reading that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I have a wedding friday night in Franklin lakes nj.. I’m debating whether to cancel the hotel reservation for friday and drive home after the wedding to avoid driving Saturday.. not sure what to do at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I wouldn't go more than 6-12" for anyone West of the Nassau County line unless things shift substantially. I'm still thinking 4-8 in Middlesex/Union counties based on the look of this and history. Still a decent snow in a year like this, but nothing to get all excited about. Still could see nothing at all. I don't expect a massive move west at this point to put us in the best snows. But a 4-8 would still be nice. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 A 952mb low on the benchmark does nothing for most of our forum outside of LI if it gets there by a hook shot well offshore. This isn’t forming on the Carolina coast and riding a line to the benchmark. It’s well offshore and hooking late NW towards SNE. Keep that in mind when posting a static low pressure position. How it gets there is a big part of the story. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Greg g said: I have a wedding friday night in Franklin lakes nj.. I’m debating whether to cancel the hotel reservation for friday and drive home after the wedding to avoid driving Saturday.. not sure what to do at the moment As of now that seems like a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Greg g said: I have a wedding friday night in Franklin lakes nj.. I’m debating whether to cancel the hotel reservation for friday and drive home after the wedding to avoid driving Saturday.. not sure what to do at the moment 1 minute ago, Greg g said: I have a wedding friday night in Franklin lakes nj.. I’m debating whether to cancel the hotel reservation for friday and drive home after the wedding to avoid driving Saturday.. not sure what to do at the moment Depends.....on the company you might have....could turn into a memorable long weekend. Just sayin. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 16 minutes ago, hazwoper said: fast moving system.....no, I can definitely say its impossible. Part of the big time upside is that the surface low gets captured by the exploding upper air low and slows down for a few hours. There’ll be a window for the low to bomb and draw tropical moisture into the cold air from the much warmer than average Atlantic largely untouched by nor’easters so far this year. I definitely believe there can be 18-24” or higher totals if we see a bomb like the GGEM or Euro last night. It’s just where does that happen. Can this be a storm where it can make it west into NYC or is it reserved to eastern LI/New England? This can definitely be remembered as a big timer if the pieces come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Greg g said: I have a wedding friday night in Franklin lakes nj.. I’m debating whether to cancel the hotel reservation for friday and drive home after the wedding to avoid driving Saturday.. not sure what to do at the moment Given the patterns this season, the fact that the metro area is on the western end of this, and the excitability of this forum over the last month… I wouldn’t cancel a thing…yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I wouldn't go more than 6-12" for anyone West of the Nassau County line unless things shift substantially. We definitely don't need "substantial" changes to get 12+ from the city on west. The suburbs are another story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: We definitely don't need "substantial" changes to get 12+ from the city on west. The suburbs are another story The only model currently showing that much snow West of the city is the Euro and we don't have the latest run yet. The problem is the track of the ULL. For the interior to do well the ULL needs to track over Long Island instead of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Given the patterns this season, the fact that the metro area is on the western end of this, and the excitability of this forum over the last month… I wouldn’t cancel a thing…yet Have to cancel by midnight tomorrow.. hopefully we will know better by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 21 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Boxing Day was a pure Miller A. January 6/7 1996 was a pure Miller A. While the Boxing Day storm may have grazed the GOM, it really developed off the Atlantic coast. With Miller A storms everyone gets snow and there really isn't much of a screw zone as there are with Miller B storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Euro not gonna be as good I wouldn't be so sure. Holy crap. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Southwest energy held back a bit more on this EURO run. Could be trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: I wouldn't be so sure. Holy crap. I may have spoke too soon. My apologies. It closed off by NC this run. Where was it last run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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