Metasequoia Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: Because the benchmark is too far east for NYC. We need it tucked inside to get burried! January 26th, 2016 and January 4th, 2018 blizzards were south/east of the benchmark and unloaded on the region. Part of this is where the lows came from prior to arriving near the benchmark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 952mb at benchmark would bury the entire region. This isn't a warm core storm of tropical origin where it will be nice and compact from developing so quickly. Assuming this is still baroclynically driven.. That precip shield will fan out quite nicely. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 It’s kinda of looking like the 1978 storm. The only difference is the phasing while the 78 storm was formed by incredible digging this storm may have both. Of course things can change, but this is interesting for sure. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The Ukie is a big eastern LI, eastern NE hit. Almost nothing NW of NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 952mb at benchmark would bury the entire region. This isn't a warm core storm of tropical origin where it will be nice and compact from developing so quickly. Assuming this is still baroclynically driven.. That precip shield will fan out quite nicely. On the cmc it's a warm seclusion though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said: It’s kinda of looking like the 1978 storm. The only difference is the phasing while the 78 storm was formed by incredible digging this storm may have both. Of course things can change, but this is interesting for sure. which 1978 storm ???? there were 2 - one in January and one in February . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Ukie is a big eastern LI, eastern NE hit. Almost nothing NW of NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The later one. I remember the the long range 72 prog forecasted it and we at Lyndon State College we’re impressed by the model performance. Boy have times have change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Trends on getting these two shortwaves together. All I care about. So far looking really promising today. Someone keep the Euro glued to it's solution plz. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 LOL at the Canadian. 952mb SE of the benchmark. Just look at how ridiculous these winds are. If it verified, it would likely bring a period of sustained hurricane force winds to cape cod and possibly the rest of SE NE with heavy snow. Just unreal model porn. Strong signal for a rapidly deepening and very damaging system. My initial thoughts are that you probably want to be East of the Hudson river for the big, big numbers but I think most of NJ and the Hudson Valley will still do really well. If you compare the more recent runs of the GFS to the ones that were showing a bigger storm further West, not much has changed with the upper air pattern. Subtle differences in timing are making big differences. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: Trends on getting these two shortwaves together. All I care about. So far looking really promising today. Someone keep the Euro glued to it's solution plz. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, Rjay said: On the cmc it's a warm seclusion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 OPC 96hr surface prog 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Very high ratio snow potential here, upper teens in NYC Saturday night. Depends I guess also how windy it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Ukie is a big eastern LI, eastern NE hit. Almost nothing NW of NYC Came west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 28 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: Yes.. very thin line.. have to be able to smell the rain.... Yea for NYC to jackpot the cape and Atlantic City and maybe Eastern LI would probably need to at least have some mixing. Don't necessarily need a jackpot but thats the reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The 0Z EURO is a bone crusher, but note on the 48hr. snow totals the E-W gradient. We need tomorrow's 12Z to look like this and we could be set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 33 minutes ago, Doorman said: When you see the euro tick west at 1:00 pm Come back to this map and hug it for me!!!!! Yeah we'll see how well this ages 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 27 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 952mb at benchmark would bury the entire region. This isn't a warm core storm of tropical origin where it will be nice and compact from developing so quickly. Assuming this is still baroclynically driven.. That precip shield will fan out quite nicely. Absolutely agreed! This has all the hallmarks of a KU. If we see 952 pressure (extremely rare) your talking hurricane force gusts and huge drifting for the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Yeah we'll see how well this ages I hate forecasting models but I don't see the euro coming further west. We'll see I guess. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Remember this storm is still 4 days out. I don't know why people are acting like the storm track is edged in stone. This could still trend way better or way worse but the bottomline is their is major upside potential for whoever ends up in the jackpot zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: My first call 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said: The later one. I remember the the long range 72 prog forecasted it and we at Lyndon State College we’re impressed by the model performance. Boy have times have change. Was still in high school but had access to the data. Yep, 72HR Spectral did a great job and it was a super success for the LFM which had a long string of failures. LFM never wavered. Still have some of the old (now nicely yellowed) difax charts. Was walking on air as a kid and watching the progress of the LFM cycles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: I hate forecasting models but I don't see the euro coming further west. We'll see I guess. Not that I think the 12z Euro matters that much in terms of overall outcome but I'd predict it comes in around the same or slightly east. If it somehow did go further west it would be a bit red flag that this may be coming in more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Kma looks like the cmc...sorta 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just amazed at the potential from this storm if it follows the GEM evolution, that much rapid deepening with very cold air interacting with anomalously warm ocean temperatures suggests some very high snowfall totals are possible, perhaps March 1888 needs to be considered as part of analogue set (if there is an outcome like these model runs are suggesting). Think also there was a storm March 1-2 1914 that combined very low pressures, strong winds and heavy snow. That one from historical weather maps was a bit closer to NYC than the track of the Blizzard of 1888. My first call on this would be 18-24 inches NYC metro, 24-48 inches Long Island and parts of CT, 12-18 n NJ. Wind gusts 70-90 mph seem possible. This could create emergency situation for much of the region and most of New England. Still time for models to change but I see the nucleus of the storm already over UT, CO and WY. 2 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Absolutely agreed! This has all the hallmarks of a KU. If we see 952 pressure (extremely rare) your talking hurricane force gusts and huge drifting for the coast. Anything is possible with these record SSTs in the Western Atlantic. We saw our first 950mb low of the modern era just 4 years ago near the benchmark. Each of the models have been taking turns showing such low pressures. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018 The development of the blizzard began along the southeast coast on Wednesday, January 3rd. An ampflying upper level trough spawned low pressure off the coast of Florida. The low underwent rapid intenisifcation from Wednesday night through the Thursday morning as it moved north-northeast along the coast. The low passed just east of the 40°N 70°W benchmark Thursday afternoon. The central pressure when the storm developed was around 1004 millibars at 1 pm Wednesday. 24 hours later, the central pressure fell to 950 mb which is a 54 millibar drop. The rapid intensification of the storm led to the heavy snow and blizzard conditions across portions of the region. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 1:53 PM, SnoSki14 said: This threat has been dead. Who cares what one op run of a model shows 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah we'll see how well this ages 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The 0Z EURO is a bone crusher, but note on the 48hr. snow totals the E-W gradient. We need tomorrow's 12Z to look like this and we could be set. Tight squeeze for folks like @snywxand myself…not going to be shocked if this one won’t play in our favor while someone just 50-100 miles East pulls 20”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Just amazed at the potential from this storm if it follows the GEM evolution, that much rapid deepening with very cold air interacting with anomalously warm ocean temperatures suggests some very high snowfall totals are possible, perhaps March 1888 needs to be considered as part of analogue set (if there is an outcome like these model runs are suggesting). Think also there was a storm March 1-2 1914 that combined very low pressures, strong winds and heavy snow. That one from historical weather maps was a bit closer to NYC than the track of the Blizzard of 1888. My first call on this would be 18-24 inches NYC metro, 24-48 inches Long Island and parts of CT, 12-18 n NJ. Wind gusts 70-90 mph seem possible. This could create emergency situation for much of the region and most of New England. Still time for models to change but I see the nucleus of the storm already over UT, CO and WY. Those totals on LI seem high... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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