Jt17 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: So the euro against the world again? That’s worked out well so far this season… 06z GEFS had a decent western cohert developing again compared to 00z, even though the op was a mess. A lot of time for changes in any direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 23 minutes ago, Jt17 said: 06z GEFS had a decent western cohert developing again compared to 00z, even though the op was a mess. A lot of time for changes in any direction. like Forky pointed out -"treat the Op as an ensemble member at this range" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 the 12z Nam was a slight improvement at 500 over the 6z. But still holding back in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: the 12z Nam was a slight improvement at 500 over the 6z. But still holding back in the SW. Big improvement over 6z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Big improvement over 6z I agree. Definitely moves that sw east quicker an doesn't hold back nearly as much. But it's the nam way out of range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: the 12z Nam was a slight improvement at 500 over the 6z. But still holding back in the SW. It’s getting there but I wouldn’t be sweating what the Nam has to say at this range. It’s been known to change on a dime with these things. Any model which shows the southern wave eject faster is what we want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 46 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: like Forky pointed out -"treat the Op as an ensemble member at this range" For those of us not so well versed, what does this mean...thanks in advance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 12z rgem in the euro camp. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 12z rgem in the euro camp. Yup. Was just gonna post the rgem about to go boom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: For those of us not so well versed, what does this mean...thanks in advance... The model we see is the operational. There are also 51 or so different ensemble members that provide different solutions and are usually looked at in the mid and longer term so he is saying just treat the operational like one of those and just another solution that may or may not be right until closer to the event. IMO operationals have a lot of variablility beyond 72 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 All things considered, I still think we're in a really good spot for this. If the Euro changed course this morning it'd be one thing, but it's holding strong and adding the RGEM on board? I'll take it. I like that even the GFS has my area getting a few inches; that's a nice consolation prize. Long ways to go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 If 12Z euro can stay in the same ballpark and CMC/GFS can at least have some favorable trends then the RGEM and Euro maybe starting to sniff something out. KEY is going to be once s/w over the pacific makes it into the grid 12Z tomorrow and is fully sampled. That piece of energy and how it evolves is the major moving part in how and where this goes boom. Based on latest RGEM (which looks great) I would expected an interesting GGEM run shortly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GFS rolling. Would love to have this one more towards the Euro camp…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 18 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: For those of us not so well versed, what does this mean...thanks in advance... Treat it as what it is, a single run. The ensemble is 51 samples of a single run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Definite improvements on the 12z GFS so far! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Joe4alb said: Definite improvements on the 12z GFS so far! Very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 This looks like its going to go boom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 The gfs will be west but won't be the Euro....yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 This should be better here from the gfs. Better interaction. Not staying behind in the sw as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: The gfs will be west but won't be the Euro....yet. No need to be this far out baby steps but a cave is on the horizon itseems. I’ll feel better with better sampling tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Last 4 runs of the gfs 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 That's a pretty significant jump west by the GFS. Not Euro like, but trending in the right direction since the 18z whiff yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 My first call 1 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Nice trend back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I continue to be impressed with how the forward movement of the storm is slowing down on all of the models. We've gone from Saturday evening in the Gulf of Maine to Saturday evening just e of Cape Cod. This is a big improvement and changes this from potentially a 12 hour event to potentially a 17 or 18 hour event. The GFS is trending towards the ECMWF. Do not be surprised if the 18Z run changes back a hair. The most important thing now is that the Euro is consistent with itself. If we can hold the Euro, improve on the CMC and the UKMET the GFS will eventually come around fully. WX/PT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GFS bringing the storm back? All it would take for a better scenario is a slightly faster ejection of the sw. There's time for that to happen but it could just as easily trend the other way. Eastern SNE is in a much better spot. We need the perfect thread the needle solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 boston gets destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 hours ago, MANDA said: I'm not hyping the Euro control so don't take it that way. Should be treated as just another member. 06Z control continues very impressive and now has all of NJ in close to or just over 20" totals. Individual eps members also have increased in the number with now 17 members with 12"+ for KMMU. Showing a shift westward of higher totals. Two members @ 24 - 25". I like that Euro EPS is holding steady or even nudging west. That is the only take away here. Control is classic KU closing / capturing solution for NJ. Longs ways to go...just sharing some information here. Also, probabilities are rising as per a few posts back from another poster. I've been watching those over the last 24 hours as well. All of NJ close to or over 20” LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: My first call "Fight. Fight. Fight. Fight." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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