Tatamy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 06z GFS looks to be holding serve at 500mb at this stage of its run as compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 29 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 06z GFS looks to be holding serve at 500mb at this stage of its run as compared to 0z Gfs is slightly east of the 0z run. Be careful with the euro. It has been doing this all winter. To see the eps like how they were were encouraging though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 06z GFS still brings several inches to central and southern NJ and out on LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Gefs is still way further east than the eps The one thing I can say about the 6z gfs is that it didn't bury alot of energy as it did on the 0z run. 12z runs will be fun Goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 06z GFS still brings several inches to central and southern NJ and out on LI. I keep seeing the term east, so as I'm west I've got low expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Some members are further west on the gefs compared to 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs is still way further east than the eps The one thing I can say about the 6z gfs is that it didn't bury alot of energy as it did on the 0z run. 12z runs will be fun Goodnight Maybe this is the period where models back off only to bring it back the next day. Either way hopefully something works out because the pattern turns to crap right after and will stay that way most of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Maybe this is the period where models back off only to bring it back the next day. Either way hopefully something works out because the pattern turns to crap right after and will stay that way most of Feb. Not sure if it's going to be crap. It all depends where the MJO emerges to from the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Who cares about February right now. We have to get through this week first lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Here's the 00z EPS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Nice to look at the 0z Euro last night but have to look at it with skepticism until other models get on board. If we’re dragging and leaving behind energy in the SW, hard to see how it’s a significant event for most of us, except maybe eastern Suffolk. But if we do have a good phase it can be a monster. That still has to be resolved. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 06z Euro has run up to 90 hours. Looks very similar to the 0z run at this point. SLP to the south of Cape Hatteras might be a smidge to the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: Here's the 00z EPS When does the 6z eps come out. GFS and CMC has me shook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: When does the 6z eps come out. GFS and CMC has me shook. It's running now. Not out far enough yet. I'll post it once it gets there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The differences between the Euro and GFS sum up this season so far. GFS is going with the seasonal pattern of a faster northern stream into the PAC NW. This causes the northern stream to shift the top end of the trough east leaving energy behind in the SW. The Euro says this is the best PNA amplification of the month and why not swing for the fences. So it weakens the northern stream enough for the energy in the southern to kick out fast for a sooner negative tilt. This results in a further west and deeper storm. The faster jet into the PAC NW on the GFS acts a a kicker. Euro weaker jet into PAC NW GFS faster northern stream near the PAC NW acting as kicker Thanks for this. The northern piece gives 1 to 3 in its own so it's looking pretty good for at least some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: ECMWF is fully phasing Thanks for all the analysis. Hopefully we have a EURO type solution where more of the east coast scores as opposed to the east solutions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: Thanks! Not only closer but stronger than CMC and GFS (I guess all due to the energy left behind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks! Not only closer but stronger than CMC and GFS (I guess all due to the energy left behind). Yep. The key here is how much southern energy phases into our developing storm. Euro goes for all the marbles clearly. Some of those west members would change east of NYC over to rain. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks! Not only closer but stronger than CMC and GFS (I guess all due to the energy left behind). That seems to be the key for this at the moment. Would love to see other guidance come around to the euro idea more starting at 12z. But at least for now, the European guidance wants nothing to do with leaving it behind. We watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 06 Euro with a solid swath of 10-12" from Delaware, to the Jersey Shore, to LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, CarLover014 said: 06 Euro with a solid swath of 10-12" from Delaware, to the Jersey Shore, to LI This is just the ensemble mean too. Op would be way more like 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: 06 Euro with a solid swath of 10-12" from Delaware, to the Jersey Shore, to LI Pretty strong signal on the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Here's a couple probability maps of the 06z eps. 6+ and 12+ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: 06 Euro with a solid swath of 10-12" from Delaware, to the Jersey Shore, to LI thats the ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I'm not hyping the Euro control so don't take it that way. Should be treated as just another member. 06Z control continues very impressive and now has all of NJ in close to or just over 20" totals. Individual eps members also have increased in the number with now 17 members with 12"+ for KMMU. Showing a shift westward of higher totals. Two members @ 24 - 25". I like that Euro EPS is holding steady or even nudging west. That is the only take away here. Control is classic KU closing / capturing solution for NJ. Longs ways to go...just sharing some information here. Also, probabilities are rising as per a few posts back from another poster. I've been watching those over the last 24 hours as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 So the euro against the world again? That’s worked out well so far this season… 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 23 hours ago, Rjay said: We still kinda need a miracle. The setup is so delicate. I agree 100 % with this statement made yesterday morning - also the key upper air disturbances that will help develop this coastal low are still far to the north and west - and we have to wait and see how the various guidance digests those as they move into range......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, psv88 said: So the euro against the world again? That’s worked out well so far this season… I guess one consolation is even the flat GFS gave us a 3-5” snow event and 6” for the twin forks from the northern stream wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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