Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said: The fact that the Euro didn't even gesture towards a more eastern solution is comforting. Now we need to get the GFS and CMC back on board tomorrow. Good luck with that. Sometimes it takes a few run cycles. GFS is notoriously erratic and CMC likes to stick to its guns. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Very windy along the coast. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxSnowWx37 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 All this while packing the power of a equivalent cat 3 hurricane..at its lowest its 956 mb's on the euro. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The Euro this winter since the upgrade it had late in the summer has not had that bias of overamping coastal storms in the 84-120 range anymore which it had from the 2016 upgrade anymore. It did indeed overamp the system last week in the SE but that was an atypical setup and not a coastal storm. I am less skeptical of this solution than I would have been any previous winter the last 4 years 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Juno.... gn. Lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 26 minutes ago, Rjay said: Juno.... gn. Lol 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS has two clusters. One near the BM and another to the west probably kind of like the Op 6 minutes ago, yoda said: 5 minutes ago, yoda said: EPS maps from other subforums. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Full EPS won't be out for a bit but EURO Control, while not as robust and intense as 18Z has southern half of NJ covered by 18-20" and that tapers to about 11-14" faw NW Sussex Cty with NYC and LI under 15-20". Mean is similar to 18Z with 10-12" eastern 1/3 of NJ up across NYC and LI. In both cases track is up toward MVY / ACK. Main difference from 18Z is more progressive sfc low and less capture and stall for a time. As a result, sfc low not quite as insanely intense as 18Z solutions. Still much time to watch and track this and no solution presented from 00Z runs are final. Like that EURO has had two good runs but long ways to go with a very delicate situation. SEE MAPS IN POST ABOVE 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: 11/11/87 BOS/DCA both saw 6 plus...my recollection though was the forecast here was not for much, maybe 2-3 and we got 1. The BOS forecast was good. DCA they had a chance of flurries and they got 12-20 Those must be an extremely rare kind of storm where both DC and BOS gets big snows and NYC doesn't Did Philly do well in that one too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 44 minutes ago, Nibor said: EPS maps from other subforums. whats the difference between the ENS C and the ENS M....the latter is much higher than the former. is C control and M is mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: whats the difference between the ENS C and the ENS M....the latter is much higher than the former. is C control and M is mean? Yep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Juno.... gn. Lol These names confuse me....why not just say that 10 inch snowstorm in NYC that dropped 2 feet in Suffolk County in Jan 2015 it's immediately memorable then. And I don't get why people are so sore about a 10 inch snowstorm, it was fine, and we got our 30 incher the following year. People need to stop treating that storm as if it were the reincarnation of March 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, BxSnowWx37 said: All this while packing the power of a equivalent cat 3 hurricane..at its lowest its 956 mb's on the euro. it's spread out over a much larger area, therefore its intensity doesn't behave according to the same pressure rules otherwise you'd hear about Cat 5 hurricanes wandering about in the north atlantic and north pacific lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 47 minutes ago, MANDA said: Full EPS won't be out for a bit but EURO Control, while not as robust and intense as 18Z has southern half of NJ covered by 18-20" and that tapers to about 11-14" faw NW Sussex Cty with NYC and LI under 15-20". Mean is similar to 18Z with 10-12" eastern 1/3 of NJ up across NYC and LI. In both cases track is up toward MVY / ACK. Main difference from 18Z is more progressive sfc low and less capture and stall for a time. As a result, sfc low not quite as insanely intense as 18Z solutions. Still much time to watch and track this and no solution presented from 00Z runs are final. Like that EURO has had two good runs but long ways to go with a very delicate situation. SEE MAPS IN POST ABOVE so the control is just like another member of the ensembles? From what I recall, it's never been all that accurate, but is used as a comparison for the OP to be graded against for verification scores? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Very windy along the coast. a good track for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: This one's for the weenies 20 inches....finally a run I like, we'll keep this one thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: These names confuse me....why not just say that 10 inch snowstorm in NYC that dropped 2 feet in Suffolk County in Jan 2015 it's immediately memorable then. And I don't get why people are so sore about a 10 inch snowstorm, it was fine, and we got our 30 incher the following year. People need to stop treating that storm as if it were the reincarnation of March 2001. It was worse. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Love that max intensity 962 mb hook close to the south fork. I also like some of the ens members touching the Jersey Shore, that gives us a good west wall to keep this on the classic BM track or maybe even slightly west of the BM. I'd like to see this track between Block Island and Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: It was worse. Wait....March 2001 dropped 5" of back end snow when 2 to 3 ft were predicted, and the first two thirds of it was rain which really sucked. in Jan 2015 there was zero rain, not a single drop and 10 inches of pure snow, that's what makes it better. Also we got our thirty incher the following year, so all was good with the world, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wait....March 2001 dropped 5" of back end snow when 2 to 3 ft were predicted, and the first two thirds of it was rain which really sucked. in Jan 2015 there was zero rain, not a single drop and 10 inches of pure snow, that's what makes it better. Also we got our thirty incher the following year, so all was good with the world, right? The models slowly backed off the big solutions for us March 2001. It was a slow let down. Areas west of NYC were forecasted for 2-3 feet for Juno even at the onset of snow. It's without a doubt the biggest bust I've ever experienced and I hate talking about it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: The models slowly backed off the big solutions for us March 2001. It was a slow let down. Areas west of NYC were forecasted for 2-3 feet even at the onset of snow. It's without a doubt the biggest bust I've ever experienced and I hate talking about it. Yeah it's like the kind of bust one would expect in the 80s. 3/01 resulted in a massive change in the way snowfall accumulation forecasts were made and for over a decade forecast conservatism prevailed.....until Jan 2015 lol... The Euro throwing out those immense totals for Jan 2015 must've taken everyone aback and because it was the unquestioned best model everyone bought those projected totals hook, line and sinker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wait....March 2001 dropped 5" of back end snow when 2 to 3 ft were predicted, and the first two thirds of it was rain which really sucked. in Jan 2015 there was zero rain, not a single drop and 10 inches of pure snow, that's what makes it better. Also we got our thirty incher the following year, so all was good with the world, right? I think March 2001 is the bigger bust because if busted for more people (including in SNE where they still got hit but missed out on the gaudy projected totals and blizzard conditions due to a sloppy phase) whereas January 2015 was only really a bust for NYC, most of NJ and the LHV. That being said, 8-10 inches when the NWS was forecasting 24-36 is still a massive failure by any definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: I think March 2001 is the bigger bust because if busted for more people (including in SNE where they still got hit but missed out on the gaudy projected totals and blizzard conditions due to a sloppy phase) whereas January 2015 was only really a bust for NYC, most of NJ and the LHV. That being said, 8-10 inches when the NWS was forecasting 24-36 is still a massive failure by any definition. That prediction was amazing considering there had been a decade plus of conservative forecasts since the March 2001 bust. I guess the Euro really had much more respect back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 How much IMBY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 06z NAM at the end of its range is flatter and holds back energy in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: That prediction was amazing considering there had been a decade plus of conservative forecasts since the March 2001 bust. I guess the Euro really had much more respect back then. Yeah the Euro was known by many as Dr. No back in those days, as it had a habit of destroying hopes that had been raised by big solutions that the NAM, GFS and CMC would spit out. Lots of memories of late nights when the other models showed big hits followed by 90 minutes of unbearable tension as everyone waited for the Euro and finally predictable disappointment when it showed a fish storm or a strung-out mess. Few people would ever really get excited about any potential until the Euro was fully onboard, and on the rare occasions when it would agree on a big event it was usually still more stingy in terms of QPF than the others. The numbers it was spitting out for the 2015 storm were shocking and it's a sign of how highly regarded the Euro was at the time that pro mets followed it so confidently when there were some red flags (like the CMC/RGEM being eastern outliers when they were normally the west/amped outliers). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 06z ICON brings a few inches to the Jersey shore with higher amounts out on LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 06z RGEM looks really nice at 500mb at the end of its run. It’s not holding back in the SW. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 hours ago, Rjay said: @BxEnginesays it's not coming. #banned! Maybe? I'll uh... I'm just gonna go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Wait....March 2001 dropped 5" of back end snow when 2 to 3 ft were predicted, and the first two thirds of it was rain which really sucked. in Jan 2015 there was zero rain, not a single drop and 10 inches of pure snow, that's what makes it better. Also we got our thirty incher the following year, so all was good with the world, right? Meteorologists, emergency managers, politicians were all sued because of the restrictions enacted due to the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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