HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We still have a few days to track it. Alot more up and downs. Amazing when it's a an inland track the models can lock in and hold for 5 days but when it's a coastal it always goes like this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Amazing when it's a an inland track the models can lock in and hold for 5 days but when it's a coastal it always goes like this. Agree Very weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 If the s/w in the southwest ejects east 6 hours sooner it's game on. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 If we go by the 24 hour rule and ignore the wonderful dream of the 12z suite, the gfs actually came decently west from 0Z last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 WPC 500mb prog We shall see about this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Rmine1 said: Take the surprises like tonight and enjoy. This is going the wrong way It's Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Time for bed Hoping for a good Euro and 6z runs Night and happy tracking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The windshield wiper effect is in effect. This is more favorable than a continued west trend towards an inland runner. So the actual track is more likely up the coast not inland. So NYC may see some snow or a lot is still in question, the chance for mainly rain has decreased 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Time for bed Hoping for a good Euro and 6z runs Night and happy tracking Night! I am not too worried about some wobbling today. If all models are far from a hit by 0z tomorrow, there should be some concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 The gefs have to main camps. More progressive vs slower and phased. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Keep you eyes on the western members. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 There seems to be a lot more spread on the GEFS than the 18z run. The final solution is still up in the air. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: At least one model looks like it came west tonight. Tomorrow is another day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Nibor said: There seems to be a lot more spread on the GEFS than the 18z run. The final solution is still up in the air. Yes. 2 main camps and they're far apart lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I got 1.5 inches of snow tonight. That may be more than I get from this, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 @BxEnginesays it's not coming. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, Doorman said: WPC 500mb prog We shall see about this Out of curiosity, what does this mean? Do you agree with that outlook or are you expecting something else? Would love to hear any analysis you may have. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 The ukie is close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: @BxEnginesays it's not coming. He might be right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 We are not yet close to knowing exactly where this storm is going. Certain factors compared to last night favor a track closer to the coast while others favor a track further offshore and we do not know yet which set of factors is going to be predominant as we get closer to the weekend. For one, the eastern trough is sharper/deeper. This can work in our favor or draw the storm too close and flip us over to rain. However because of the progressive nature of the pattern, that right now does not seem likely. There's another storm approaching the western Great Lakes as our ocean storm is trying to gain latitude. That can act as a kicker. But it is very interesting to note as the storm moves northeast on the CMC, the further north it gets the slower it moves. This is a good thing. And the UKMET has trended a little to the left, also a good thing. We definitely do not want too strong a trend to the left because if it were to happen, we'd flip to rain. So I still think we're in a reasonably good position with where this could be going. WX/PT 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: The ukie is close The 500 setup across the entire lower 48 resembles February 89 a ton lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: Ordinarily that location works for us. But not if the SLP takes an offshore track like the UK. Then it's a whiff... an impressive windy whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 500 setup across the entire lower 48 resembles February 89 a ton lol... A month that sucked to finish a decade that mostly sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, eduggs said: Ordinarily that location works for us. But not if the SLP takes an offshore track like the UK. Then it's a whiff... an impressive windy whiff. Except it's a decent bump west and Suffolk Co gets warning criteria snows. Only need a few bumps west to get the majority of our subforum. What's 50-100 miles in 4+ days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Out of curiosity, what does this mean? Do you agree with that outlook or are you expecting something else? Would love to hear any analysis you may have. That is a snowstorm for the metro ...neg tilt trough Saturday morning with surface low capture The euro will give you a similar look at 1 am. Then yell at the WPC forecaster who made the map When it doesn't deliver. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 500 setup across the entire lower 48 resembles February 89 a ton lol... Man thats not a good thing, we already had Feb 1989 earlier in January, don't need it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, RedSky said: A month that sucked to finish a decade that mostly sucked The decade wasn't finished yet.... February 1989 sucked with ACY getting over a foot of snow while we got virga and blew a predicted 6-8 inch call, but then December 1989 came and we blew the call the other way as a 6-8 inch forecast turned into rain at the last minute despite a month that had an average temp of an astounding 12 degrees below normal, we got like 2 inches of snow LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The decade wasn't finished yet.... February 1989 sucked with ACY getting over a foot of snow while we got virga and blew a predicted 6-8 inch call, but then December 1989 came and we blew the call the other way as a 6-8 inch forecast turned into rain at the last minute despite a month that had an average temp of an astounding 12 degrees below normal, we got like 2 inches of snow LOL I chose to forget that. The 80's were so bad they actually extended for a full 13 years appropriately and included 90,91 and 92 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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