LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: I don't know where this thought process came from but I wish it would go away. https://ams.confex.com/ams/27WAF23NWP/webprogram/Handout/Paper273676/GFS4cycle_2015_NWP_Chicago_15A.pdf All cycles have been steadily improved. • 12Z cycle is comparable to 00Z cycle. • 06Z and 18Z cycles are worse than 00Z and 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: And with 18z there isn't that much to even examine. Really the only sort of dramatic shifts were the GFS, Euro largely the same, some lesser models like Icon for example trended west, etc. really not much has happened today lol, just 1000s of anxiety filled messages across a few subforums. Right the GFS is the odd person out. Also check the above PDF from the pros, it's pretty clear cut that the 6z and 18z have far lower verification scores, I'm not sure why anyone questions it anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks where do you find these? Is it about the same for JFK? Most pay sites offer them. JFK control is 19". Two 20+ (max 27) and 22 with 12+ out of the 51 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The 0z NAM is doing what the GFS did, it's shearing the energy and trapping a good portion of it in the SW US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 This paper should be the go to for verification scores of the GFS. In contrast to the NH, in the SH there is no systematic differences between the four cycles except that the 06Z cycle is slightly worse. GFS 06Z and 18Z cycle are less skillful than the 00Z and 12Z cycles. • The difference in the NH is the largest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 • 06Z data count is always less (10~30%) than other cycles. • Even though the 18Z-cycle forecast score is worse than that of the 00Z cycle, 18Z conventional data count is not less than 00Z data count! Note even though the total number of land soundings is almost the same among the four cycles, 06Z and 18Z have much less land RAOBs than the 00Z and 12Z cycles ! Among the four cycles, there is no difference in land Sfc and Marine Sfc data counts. • 18Z has the same amount of Aircraft data as the 00Z does, but has worse forecast skill scores. • 12Z has less Aircraft data than 00Z, but has similar forecast skill scores to 00Z. • Difference in Aircraft data cannot explain forecast skill differences between 00Z/12Z and 06Z/18Z cycles. There is no difference in satellite data count among the four cycles. • 18Z and 00Z have the same amount of conventional data, but 18Z has worse forecast skills than 00Z. On the other hand, 12Z has less conventional data than 00Z, but 12Z and 00Z have similar forecast skills. • 06Z and 18Z cycles have 10 to 20 times less land rawinsonde observations than the 00Z and 12Z cycles. Is the lack of RAOBS responsible for the lower forecast scores of the 06Z and 18Z cycles? More investigation is required to understand its impact. The forecast skills of GFS 06Z and 18Z cycles are not as good as that of the 00Z and 12Z cycles. what are the benefits of running these two extra cycles of forecast ? 06Z and 18Z cycles are significantly worse than 00Z cycle for forecasts up to 6 to 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: This paper should be the go to for verification scores of the GFS. In contrast to the NH, in the SH there is no systematic differences between the four cycles except that the 06Z cycle is slightly worse. GFS 06Z and 18Z cycle are less skillful than the 00Z and 12Z cycles. • The difference in the NH is the largest Are you talking about the one by Dr Yang in 2015? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Are you talking about the one by Dr Yang in 2015? https://ams.confex.com/ams/27WAF23NWP/webprogram/Handout/Paper273676/GFS4cycle_2015_NWP_Chicago_15A.pdf Yep this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Icon is further east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It's true, someone posted the verification scores of the GFS and the 6z and 18z consistently ranked as the lowest. So I’m sure saying that the “6z and 18z is less than useless” is a bit intentionally hyperbolic but even if the skill is lower than the other run times I think disparaging it is a bit silly, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GFS is off and running...one of the bigger runs of the season! The weenie in me is pumped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: GFS is off and running...one of the bigger runs of the season! The weenie in me is pumped! Well it would be nice to quickly reverse the trend. But wobbles often come in clusters of successive runs. I wouldn't be shocked if the GFS is similar or worse this run. But we can still recover from this point. By tomorrow and especially Wednesday it will be increasingly difficult to recover if the consensus is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I am prepared for any outcome... from cirrus to blizzard. No expectations. Just roll along with what is and what will be. Tracking is still fun and interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 icon- gee what happened to the HECS ??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 No real noticeable differences through HR 78... Precip looks a little more robust but that's surface map... Energy held back a little bit through HR 84.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Positive changes so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Not great but an improvement at 500 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I am prepared for any outcome... from cirrus to blizzard. No expectations. Just roll along with what is and what will be. Tracking is still fun and interesting. This is awesome. Literally the whole post, but especially "Tracking is fun and interesting." sounds like a mantra from a self help audio tape for those with snow-related disorders. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 This is going to be a nice run! Not as good as 12Z but better than the 18Z...came back west a bit and a deeper low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, jdj5211 said: This is going to be a nice run! Meh. But definitely an improvement from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 It trended somewhat better which is all we want to see at this point. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: It trended somewhat better which is all we want to see at this point. Gfs is better than 18z. Held back less energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GFS was an improvement but still not good. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GFS is doing the windshield wiper thing. Went well east at 18z then back west at 00z. Still way too early to make any determination. It would be nice to see the CMC somewhat hold serve since it sniffed out this thing first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GFS meh, CMC way east. Not over yet but not great trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS meh, CMC way east. Not over yet but not great trends. Gfs was much better. Cmc is further east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: GFS is doing the windshield wiper thing. Went well east at 18z then back west at 00z. Still way too early to make any determination. It would be nice to see the CMC somewhat hold serve since it sniffed out this thing first. We still have a few days to track it. Alot more up and downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Tbh, gfs was pretty close to a hit. The phase was just a hair shy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Tbh, gfs was pretty close to a hit. The phase was just a hair shy Less energy left behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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