LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: If only we had a negative NAO. This storm would have closed off earlier and the whole area would have had a hecs. we had a wasted negative NAO in December, it would have been better to have a positive NAO in December with temps in the 60s and a negative NAO now, but are you sure that with a negative NAO the storm wouldn't have been suppressed? Because that tends to happen a lot too. What we had was fine it was like a blizzard here most of the day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 hours ago, Rjay said: Or DC to AC is crushed Exactly, so this might be the best possible outcome to get in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 10" imby...very nice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 The POS GFS did so poorly with this storm. Such a trash model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 7 hours ago, the_other_guy said: What I said above was when you guys clung onto epic hits and the GFS was East, it was dismissed as an outlier. Several of us pointed out that you shouldn’t dismiss it given seasonal trends. It caught on very early that this was going to be an East storm. And it was dismissed. And when all is said and done, this is a heavily eastern storm. So it was onto something early on and dismissed as an outlier…but there was some truth in its eastern extremes. Enjoy the snow! GFS was god awful we have had well over a foot of snow here, close to a foot and a half in SW Nassau, only 4 miles east of the Queens line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: He is talking about east end but many posters in central NJ and central LI have over 12 inches. More than that, we are well over a foot of snow in western nassau county, I could walk from here to Queens. Close to a foot and a half here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 8 hours ago, the_other_guy said: Early on it showed the Eastward extreme pull while we did snow dances around the NAM. No way you cant acknowledge that What eastward extreme? Parts of NYC metro got a foot of snow when that POS model was only giving a snowstorm to the Canadian Maritimes 48 hours before game time. It was absolutely God awful with this storm. One of the worst performances ever. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: What eastward extreme? Parts of NYC metro got a foot of snow when that POS model was only giving a snowstorm to the Canadian Maritimes 48 hours before game time. It was absolutely God awful with this storm. One of the worst performances ever. Parts of the city itself got a double digit snowfall. Brooklyn and Queens are eastward extremes? LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Parts of the city itself got a double digit snowfall. Brooklyn and Queens are eastward extremes? LOL He must be talking about another GFS model in an alternate universe because the one that I was tracking with this storm put on an embarrassing display and as usual caved to the other models late in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Parts of the city itself got a double digit snowfall. Brooklyn and Queens are eastward extremes? LOL Yeah but that doesn’t mean anything if the main band of the storm got 2+ feet of snow NYC was on the eastern end of the storm. The bullseye was/is the twin forks up to Boston you had guys hugging models that showed them what they wanted to show. Talking about 30 and 40 inch totals and then getting angry when it backed off. No blocking. Fast flow. Eastern storm. GFS, for all its warts, picked up on it early. That is why most of the forum area has 6 inches and not 2 feet. I will say that again… Most of the area is closer to 6 inches than two feet. Blowing masked that in height of storm. It is obvious post storm 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 54 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Yeah but that doesn’t mean anything if the main band of the storm got 2+ feet of snow NYC was on the eastern end of the storm. The bullseye was/is the twin forks up to Boston you had guys hugging models that showed them what they wanted to show. Talking about 30 and 40 inch totals and then getting angry when it backed off. No blocking. Fast flow. Eastern storm. GFS, for all its warts, picked up on it early. That is why most of the forum area has 6 inches and not 2 feet. I will say that again… Most of the area is closer to 6 inches than two feet. Blowing masked that in height of storm. It is obvious post storm Did you lose a bet on the GFS on Draftkkings and are trying to convince them you really won? You’re usually pretty sensible but I just don’t get this argument at all. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: Yeah but that doesn’t mean anything if the main band of the storm got 2+ feet of snow NYC was on the eastern end of the storm. The bullseye was/is the twin forks up to Boston you had guys hugging models that showed them what they wanted to show. Talking about 30 and 40 inch totals and then getting angry when it backed off. No blocking. Fast flow. Eastern storm. GFS, for all its warts, picked up on it early. That is why most of the forum area has 6 inches and not 2 feet. I will say that again… Most of the area is closer to 6 inches than two feet. Blowing masked that in height of storm. It is obvious post storm Who got 6 inches? Alot of this area got close to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: Yeah but that doesn’t mean anything if the main band of the storm got 2+ feet of snow NYC was on the eastern end of the storm. The bullseye was/is the twin forks up to Boston you had guys hugging models that showed them what they wanted to show. Talking about 30 and 40 inch totals and then getting angry when it backed off. No blocking. Fast flow. Eastern storm. GFS, for all its warts, picked up on it early. That is why most of the forum area has 6 inches and not 2 feet. I will say that again… Most of the area is closer to 6 inches than two feet. Blowing masked that in height of storm. It is obvious post storm I got 12” here in bed stuy Brooklyn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 9 hours ago, larrye said: You can't necessarily take model outputs literally. Go look at the forecasts for NWS, and for any of the local TV stations and you will see that none of them reflect literally any of the model outputs. The GFS nailed the "eastward" bias of the storm and the Euro was kind of hinting at it all week long also.I believe both the GFS and the Euro (and the NAM also) showed the dual surface lows. Most Mets will use their experience, model outputs, climatology, etc and come up with a blended forecast ... unless a model output is so outlandish that it looks to be an outlier when they will just discard it. This was the GFS performance for this storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 46 minutes ago, Rjay said: Gfs? https://images.app.goo.gl/4h8F5Cb7iyz7fPhJ9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Rjay said: And this was less than 48 hours before snow began. Just brutal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Gfs? https://images.app.goo.gl/4h8F5Cb7iyz7fPhJ9 Yea. So bad lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 7 hours ago, the_other_guy said: Yeah but that doesn’t mean anything if the main band of the storm got 2+ feet of snow NYC was on the eastern end of the storm. The bullseye was/is the twin forks up to Boston you had guys hugging models that showed them what they wanted to show. Talking about 30 and 40 inch totals and then getting angry when it backed off. No blocking. Fast flow. Eastern storm. GFS, for all its warts, picked up on it early. That is why most of the forum area has 6 inches and not 2 feet. I will say that again… Most of the area is closer to 6 inches than two feet. Blowing masked that in height of storm. It is obvious post storm Get some rest pal. It’s just snow. You will get some more this winter, the coast just cashed in this time. No reason to be bitter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 15 hours ago, MJO812 said: Who got 6 inches? Alot of this area got close to a foot. In Westchester County on the Connecticut line, we're lucky if we got six. More like four or five. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Biggest storm of the season for many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 11 hours ago, MJO812 said: Biggest storm of the season for many areas Gutsy call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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