MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Torch said: If we are giving the guidance such low marks, how did we see this coming 5 days ago? To be fair , the Euro and GFS had a coastal on January 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 H5 looked better on every run than what the surface was showing. Sometimes the surface doesn't catch up and you have to use your judgment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Down to 18 degrees in Brooklyn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Can anyone talk about the evolution of that double barreled low and how it eventually looked and acted in actuality, I mean we were talking about it late last night and it did appear to consolidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Can anyone talk about the evolution of that double barreled low and how it eventually looked and acted in actuality, I mean we were talking about it late last night and it did appear to consolidate. The low to the east is stronger than the one to the west. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: Gfs gets an F. Euro gets a C. NAM forgot to take the test and is sitting at home picking it's nose. Rgem cut class to smoke some weed. 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Here is the ukie There must be a way to blame Will for all of this. As always….. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: The low to the east is stronger than the one to the west. If only that low was further west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Can anyone talk about the evolution of that double barreled low and how it eventually looked and acted in actuality, I mean we were talking about it late last night and it did appear to consolidate. Someone should've taken me up on the military planes full of ice cubes to stop the convection. Crazy how this is the 2nd coastal storm now to have convection rob it like this. Still very impressive. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Bluewave ty,,,,,when they did merge did they meet in the middle or was it farther east or west and did any of the models nail what took place or show what actually transpired ahead of time ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 25 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: I'd say the GFS underestimated considerably. Still more falling. Dealing with the same thing, maybe a bit more on barnegat bay. Great HECS. WHAT A MESS! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, BxEngine said: GFS crushed it man. So good. 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 The models are definitely good at picking out threats. There's no denying that. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxSnowWx37 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 The gfs was on vacation here,just god awful..it had me at barely 2 inches..im approaching 8+ could be more..still snowing hard btw.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: If only that low was further west. We see this when broad troughs take too long to close off. So it produces a double barrel low before the eastern one takes over. It’s easier for the upper low to close of faster when there is a -AO and -NAO. This gives us a 50/50 low with more of a ridge over SE Canada and helps the northern stream close off earlier to our SW. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: The models are definitely good at picking out threats. There's no denying that. Rjay they are just tools but so are many of the Houston Astros <---did u see what I did there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Spent most of the night stuck between bands. Mostly light to occasionally moderate snow. Haven’t gone out yet but eyeballing about 3” of snow. Still coming down but the storm is starting to pull East. You can see the Western edge starting to dry up. Think it’s over up here by noon at the latest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, BxSnowWx37 said: The gfs was on vacation here,just god awful..it had me at barely 2 inches..im approaching 8+ could be more..still snowing hard btw.. You can't necessarily take model outputs literally. Go look at the forecasts for NWS, and for any of the local TV stations and you will see that none of them reflect literally any of the model outputs. The GFS nailed the "eastward" bias of the storm and the Euro was kind of hinting at it all week long also.I believe both the GFS and the Euro (and the NAM also) showed the dual surface lows. Most Mets will use their experience, model outputs, climatology, etc and come up with a blended forecast ... unless a model output is so outlandish that it looks to be an outlier when they will just discard it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Coming down kinda light right now - seems like I'm in between heavier stuff to either side of me at the moment. Somewhere between 10-12 based on random ruler measurements, but who knows really. Noticed again with this storm, that KFRG (Farmingdale) often does not report snow when it is snowing. See the example link below. Is that automated or it is a person reporting? On this note, basic question, if someone wouldn't mind answering - how is it determined whether snowfall is light, medium, or heavy? https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFRG.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 12:48 AM, RU848789 said: One more try: @wdrag@SnowGoose69@forkyfork or anyone who might know? Anyone? Bueller? What follows is knowledge 4 hears ago, and I wonder if it's advanced very much since then. NWS uses snow ratios, usually in 3 hour increments... not a finished science but an attempt at improving upon standard 10 to 1's. They can break it down to 1 hr increments with the associated hourly qpf and weather grid. Then the automated conversions occur. VERY VERY busy within 72 hours of an event to try to get this right for the WFO, then to collaborate it among the adjacent WFO's and the WPC Winter Weather Desk at NCEP. They usually have 30-60 minute conference calls at about 1A/1P if multiple WFO's on a warning event (ECWS) for snowfall and when to trigger watch-warning process. It is my opinion that BOS, followed by PHI led the way from DE to New England. It is also my opinion that there is a conservative approach with so many millions of people involved in the Response. No one wants to be wrong. I do think the science has potential to advance (as this forum showed) for big ECWS beyond 60 hour watch process. It will help when the model science can show greater consensus further out. I think the GFS held the NWS and others from giving stronger alerts sooner. I also guess not much damage done on the shorter term alert. We won't know that behind the scenes EM/FAA discussions if they are required. NWS always looking to improve it's processes, but it's slow... So many folks tuning in to forums and other resources well before an event is officially acknowledged. Just the way it is... Have a good finish to the storm. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 If only we had a negative NAO. This storm would have closed off earlier and the whole area would have had a hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 If only we had a negative NAO. This storm would have closed off earlier and the whole area would have had a hecs.Just goes to show why they’re historical. It doesn’t come together often.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 hours ago, BxSnowWx37 said: The gfs was on vacation here,just god awful..it had me at barely 2 inches..im approaching 8+ could be more..still snowing hard btw.. The models actually did well with the kuchera ratios for this storm I think. I can't imagine we got that much liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 hours ago, the_other_guy said: What I said above was when you guys clung onto epic hits and the GFS was East, it was dismissed as an outlier. Several of us pointed out that you shouldn’t dismiss it given seasonal trends. It caught on very early that this was going to be an East storm. And it was dismissed. And when all is said and done, this is a heavily eastern storm. So it was onto something early on and dismissed as an outlier…but there was some truth in its eastern extremes. Enjoy the snow! Every model has this as an east storm except a few NAM'ed and Euro runs but the gfs was showing like 1-3 inches for 10 runs in a row for NYC lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 In my view the guidance did well overall for a third straight storm, pretty consistent in terms of overall outcome inside 120 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 49 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The models actually did well with the kuchera ratios for this storm I think. I can't imagine we got that much liquid. So let's see when the storm finishes if there are any towns in Nassau Co with 35". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: If only we had a negative NAO. This storm would have closed off earlier and the whole area would have had a hecs. Or DC to AC is crushed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Or DC to AC is crushed Slightly negative NAO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 33 minutes ago, larrye said: So let's see when the storm finishes if there are any towns in Nassau Co with 35". Fair enough but I mean more so for NYC on northwest which is where it was more expected the ratios would be high due to less intense wind. And Islip I heard is up to 22 inches so might be somewhere in western suffolk that approaches 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 22 hours ago, Intensewind002 said: Ok I got my ticket and I’m on my way back to LI, if I get anything less than a foot this trip wasnt worth $90 Well worth the price of admission! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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